中國房地產市場出現復甦跡象

More signs of a recovery in Chinese property: developers surveyed by China Confidential, an FT research service, reported a surge in activity in April. Of 300 surveyed in 40 cities nationwide, 55 per cent reported an increase in sales from the previous month, taking the China Confidential Home Sales Index to 66.9 (a reading above 50 indicates growth).

中國房地產出現了更多的復甦跡象：英國《金融時報》旗下研究機構《中國投資參考》(China Confidential)走訪的開發商報告稱，4月份的銷量大幅飆升。全國40座城市受訪的300個開發商當中，有55%報告稱銷量環比增長，推動“中國投資參考住房銷售指數”(China Confidential Home Sales Index)升至66.9（高於50代表增長）。

Growth came from an already high base in March, when developers reported a sharp uptick in sales following the Chinese new year holiday. Significantly, this is the first time that the index has stayed above 60 for two consecutive months since China Confidential began its survey in December 2012.

4月份的增長建立在3月份已然很高的基數之上。開發商在3月份報告稱，中國春節假期之後銷量急劇上升。重要的是，這是自2012年12月《中國投資參考》啓動這一調查以來，該指數首次連續兩個月位於60上方。

Momentum appears to have been sustained into May. Home sales in 42 cities increased 37 per cent year-on-year in the first five days of this month, according to local property bureau data tracked by China Confidential.

這一勢頭似乎延續到了5月份。《中國投資參考》追蹤的地方房地產部門的數據顯示，本月頭5天，42座城市的住房銷量同比增長37%。

The uptick appears to be a response to Beijing’s decision to relax mortgage requirements for second-time buyers. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said at the end of March that down payments for home buyers with an existing mortgage would be lowered from 60 per cent to 40 per cent of the purchase price. Of the developers responding to China Confidential’s survey, 43 per cent said that customers were able to secure a mortgage with a down payment of 40 to 50 per cent in April, compared with an average of just 8 per cent since the survey began. After the relaxation of the 60 per cent rule, 44 per cent of developers said customers seeking to upgrade their homes were their biggest source of demand in April, the largest proportion in the history of the survey.

這一增長似乎是中國政府決定放鬆二套房房貸要求導致的。中國央行3月底表示，對擁有一套住房且相應購房貸款未結清的居民家庭購二套房，最低首付款比例從60%調整爲40%。迴應《中國投資參考》調查的開發商當中有43%表示，客戶在4月份能夠搞到首付款比例爲40%至50%的房貸，而自該調查啓動以來，平均而言只有8%的開發商表示客戶能搞到這樣的房貸。在放鬆二套房首付款要求之後，有44%的開發商表示改善型客戶是4月份需求的最大來源，這麼高的比例是該調查歷史上沒有過的。

While upgrader demand has picked up, property speculation remains muted, in keeping with Beijing’s wish to avoid a repeat of previous bouts of overheating in the housing market: just 17 per cent of developers said their biggest source of sales was from customers wanting to purchase an additional home. A separate survey of urban consumers by China Confidential shows an increasingly positive attitude towards purchasing a house for self-occupancy, while attitudes towards buying property for investment are still negative. The China Confidential Property Investment Sentiment Index was 42.9 in April (a reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment), while the China Confidential House Buying Sentiment Index rose to 53.4.

在改善型需求上升的同時，房地產投機依然低迷，這與中國政府想避免前幾次住房市場過熱重演的願望相吻合：只有17%的開發商表示，它們銷量的最大貢獻者是投資性購房客戶。《中國投資參考》對城市購房者展開的另一項調查顯示，自住購房情緒日漸積極，投資購房情緒仍然消極。“中國投資參考房地產投資情緒指數”(China Confidential Property Investment Sentiment Index)在4月份是42.9（低於50代表情緒消極），而“中國投資參考住房購買情緒指數”(China Confidential House Buying Sentiment Index)升至53.4.

And while banks are willing to accept smaller down payments by their borrowers, interest rates remain relatively high. Of the developers surveyed by China Confidential, 81 per cent said second-time buyers had to pay above the benchmark lending rate in April. Nor was there any sign that mortgage rates are being significantly lowered for first-time buyers, something the PBoC has repeatedly tried to encourage commercial banks to do. Although just 7 per cent of developers said first-time buyers had to pay above the benchmark lending rate for a mortgage in April, only 19 per cent said their customers were able to secure a mortgage for less than the benchmark rate. That compares with 50 per cent who said their customers were getting rates below the benchmark at the beginning of 2013.

儘管銀行願意接受較低的首付款比例，但它們設定的房貸利率依然相對較高。《中國投資參考》走訪的開發商當中有81%表示，二套房客戶在4月份不得不接受高於基準房貸利率的利率。同時也沒有任何跡象顯示，銀行對首套房客戶大幅下調房貸利率——中國央行曾多次試圖鼓勵商業銀行這麼做。儘管僅有7%的開發商說首套房客戶在4月份不得不接受高於基準房貸利率的利率，但只有19%的開發商稱他們的客戶能夠搞到利率低於基準房貸利率的房貸。而在2013年初，有50%的開發商表示他們的客戶搞到了利率低於基準房貸利率的房貸。

Seemingly, banks are not entirely playing ball with Beijing’s attempts to rally the housing market; mortgage lending is a fairly unprofitable area of business for them. The previous policy-led upswing in home sales at the end of 2014 quickly fizzled out due to still-tight credit conditions for homebuyers and, despite the positive signs in recent months, China Confidential’s survey data suggest the same could well happen this time around.

銀行似乎並未全力配合中國政府刺激住房市場的努力，對它們來說，房貸是利潤率相當低的一塊業務。由於購房者面對的信貸環境仍然緊張，2014年底由政策驅動的住房銷量增長如曇花一現；儘管近幾個月出現了積極的跡象，但《中國投資參考》的調查數據顯示，這一次的情況很可能同樣如此。