大宗商品超級週期結束
The commodities supercycle may be over but there’s no replacement for China as the world’s factory, according to Citi.
From now on, commodities demand will come from a diversified group of regions including India, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and countries belonging to Asean in Southeast Asia.
從現在開始，對大宗商品的需求將來自一組多元化的地區，包括印度、中東、拉美、非洲、以及東南亞的東盟(ASEAN)國家。But this would not be enough to offset China, leading to slower worldwide demand growth for commodities and weaker global trade flows, the bank said.
但該行表示，這將不足以彌補中國的放緩，導致全球大宗商品需求增長放緩，全球貿易流量減弱。
Global commodities demand growth will be substantially slower than during the past decade. Hardest hit would be thermal coal, steel iron ore and coking coal, given their exposure to China’s manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate sectors, Citi said.
花旗表示，全球大宗商品需求增長將顯著低於過去十年。其中，受打擊最大的將是動力煤、鍊鋼用的鐵礦石以及煉焦煤，原因是它們目前對中國製造業、基建以及房地產業的敞口巨大。Base metals such as aluminium and copper are likely to do better with emerging market demand growth in the 3-5 per cent range into the 2020s, it said. The bank noted that, even as China’s economy grows from a higher consumption base, volume demand was likely to be lower for most commodities.
該行表示，對於鋁和銅等基礎金屬來說，由於新興市場3%至5%的需求增長幅度將持續到2020年代，它們的表現可能會好一些。花旗指出，即便中國經濟增長的消費基數較高，多數大宗商品的需求量仍有可能降低。For natural resources demand, this is a dual blow. First, overall economic growth in China is slowing.
這對自然資源的需求是一個雙重打擊。一方面，中國的整體經濟增長正在放緩。Second, the commodity intensity of the economic growth is falling rapidly such that each increment of lower growth generated even less demand for metals and energy than during the supercycle.
另一方面，隨着中國經濟增長的“大宗商品強度”迅速下降，同超級週期時代相比，每單位較低增長產生的金屬和能源需求甚至更低。For China to bring investment share of GDP down to 40 per cent by 2020 would require investment growth about 3 percentage points lower than GDP, which had “profound implications” for commodities demand, Citi said.
花旗表示，對於中國來說，要想到2020年把投資在國內生產總值(GDP)中的佔比降低至40%，就必須令投資增幅比GDP增幅低3個百分點左右，這對大宗商品需求具有“深遠影響”。
