分析 中國下調存準率以提振放貸

China’s central bank cut the required reserve ratio for its banks yesterday as it stepped up efforts to counter the impact of capital outflows and encourage banks to boost lending amid fresh data showing a weakening economy.

中國央行昨日下調金融機構存款準備金率。在最新數據顯示經濟趨弱的大背景下，中國央行正加大努力抵消資本外流的影響，同時鼓勵銀行加大放貸力度。

A survey published on Sunday revealed China’s manufacturing sector, a key growth driver , contracted in January for the first time in more than two years. This followed news last month of the weakest gross domestic product growth in 24 years last year.

上週日發表的一項調查顯示，製造業（中國經濟增長的關鍵推動因素）1月份出現兩年多來的首次收縮。在那之前，上月發佈的數據顯示，去年中國國內生產總值(GDP)增長是24年以來最疲弱的。

In addition, China suffered its largest capital outflow on record in the fourth quarter last year, according to balance of payments data released on Tuesday. The deficit of $91bn on the capital and financial accounts was the worst since quarterly data were first compiled in 1998. China’s foreign exchange reserves also fell as investors sold renminbi and bought foreign currency.

此外，根據週二公佈的國際收支數據，去年第四季度中國遭遇了有記錄以來最大規模的資本流出。910億美元的資本和金融賬戶逆差，是1998年中國開始編制季度數據以來最糟糕的。隨着投資者拋售人民幣和買入外幣，中國的外匯儲備也有所下降。

“The most important reason for the cut is liquidity demand in the banking system,” said Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.

“此次降低存款準備金率的最重要原因是銀行體系內的流動性需求，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)駐香港首席中國經濟學家朱海斌表示。

“Forex reserve accumulation — which is traditionally an important channel to create base money — is no longer there. That creates a permanent liquidity gap that needs to be filled.”

“外匯儲備的積累——傳統上是創造基礎貨幣的重要渠道之一——不再存在。這就製造了一個需要填補的永久性流動性缺口。”

The required reserve ratio, known as the RRR, specifies the portion of a commercial bank’s deposits that must be held on reserve at China’s central bank, where it is unavailable for loans and other investments.

存款準備金率規定了商業銀行須將多大比例的存款繳存於中國央行作爲準備金，這部分資金不能用於貸款和其他投資。

For most of the past decade, “twin surpluses” on both the current and capital accounts swelled China’s foreign exchange reserves and its domestic money supply.

過去10年的大部分時間裏，中國經常賬戶和資本賬戶的“雙順差”導致中國的外匯儲備和國內貨幣供應量出現膨脹。

In response, the People’s Bank of China raised the RRR steadily as a way to sterilise these inflows and prevent inflation.

對此，中國央行穩步上調存款準備金率，以此來沖銷資本流入、防止通貨膨脹。

The RRR for China’s biggest banks rose from 8 per cent in 2005 to a high of 20.5 per cent in late 2012.

中國各大銀行的存款準備金率從2005年的8%逐漸升至2012年末的高點——20.5%。

Yesterday’s cut of 0.5 percentage points brings that rate down to 19.5 per cent — although this is still much higher than any other major economy. With inflows reversing, economists are expecting at least one more RRR cut this year.

昨日下調0.5個百分點使存款準備金率降至19.5%——儘管這個數字仍比其他任何主要經濟體都要高得多。隨着資本流入出現逆轉，經濟學家預計，今年至少還會有一次下調存準率。

The central bank has tried to tread a fine line over the past year by providing targeted stimulus to support the slowing economy, without exacerbating financial risks by unleashing a new credit binge such as the one deployed in response to the 2008 financial crisis.

中國央行過去一年一直試圖在“走鋼絲”，一方面要提供有針對性的刺激政策以支撐不斷放緩的經濟，一方面要避免像應對2008年金融危機時那樣釋放一股新的信貸狂潮、導致金融風險加劇。

The central bank’s latest easing move followed a cut in benchmark interest rates in November and a series of targeted easing measures last year, which included direct loans worth more than $80bn to specific banks, and RRR cuts for small lenders.

中國央行在出臺這一最新寬鬆舉措之前，已在去年11月下調基準利率，並在去年全年期間採取了一系列定向寬鬆措施，包括對特定銀行提供價值逾800億美元的直接貸款，以及削減小型銀行的存款準備金率。

The PBoC also announced further targeted cuts for so-called city commercial banks, whose loan books tilt towards small business and the agricultural sector — two areas that have long complained of difficulty obtaining credit.

中國央行昨日還宣佈對所謂的城市商業銀行額外降低人民幣存款準備金率。此類銀行的貸款業務向小企業和農業傾斜——這兩個部門長期抱怨難以獲得信貸。

In addition to responding to domestic conditions, economists say the PBoC’s move is also a reaction to moves by central banks in other countries, including the recent decision by the European Central Bank to pursue an ambitious programme of quantitative easing.

經濟學家表示，除了應對國內局面以外，中國央行此舉也是對其他國家央行動作的反應，包括歐洲央行(ECB)最近決定啓動的雄心勃勃的量化寬鬆計劃。

“Various countries are raising the stakes when it comes to monetary policy easing,” said Cao Yang, an analyst at Shanghai Pudong Development Bank.

“就放鬆貨幣政策而言，各國都在加大賭注，”上海浦東發展銀行(Shanghai Pudong Development Bank)分析師曹陽表示。

“China’s RRR cut is a move to keep pace.”

“中國下調存準率是一個跟上同行步伐的舉措。”