巴菲特接班人年跑輸大盤

Warren Buffett’s hand-picked successors may turn out to be more ordinary than the Oracle of Omaha.

“奧馬哈先知”沃倫o巴菲特欽點的接班人可能並沒有他本人那麼神奇。

Todd Combs and Ted Weschler both appear to have failed to beat the market in 2014. Combs missed the mark by the most. His portfolio appears to have fallen slightly, down 0.3%, in 2014. Buffett famously said that his No. 1 Rule of investing is to never lose money. His second rule, the legend goes, is not to forget Rule No. 1.

2014年，託德o康姆斯和特德o韋施勒顯然都未能跑贏大盤。康姆斯差得最多，其投資組合2014年似乎略有下降，跌了0.3％。巴菲特有句名言：他投資的頭號原則是不要賠錢。據說他的第二項原則是：不要忘記自己的頭號原則。

Weschler did better. His picks rose 6.7%. Still, that wasn’t enough to best the S&P 500, which was up by just over 11%, before dividends, in 2014. (Fortune calculated the returns of Combs and Weschler before dividends as well.) It was the first year both Combs and Weschler lagged the market index since they joined Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

韋施勒的表現好一些。其投資組合上漲了6.7％。不過，這個成績不足以勝過標普500指數，該指數2014年分紅前上漲了11％以上。（《財富》計算康姆斯和韋施勒的投資回報也是採用分紅前的數據。）這是康姆斯和韋施勒加盟巴菲特的伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司以來，頭一年出現兩人均未跑贏大盤的情況。

Last April, Buffett touted the managers’ performance in his annual letter to Berkshire BRK.A 0.26% shareholders. He wrote that both Combs and Weschler, who Buffett has indicated are likely to take over managing the bulk of Berkshire’s massive stock market portfolio when he leaves the company, had “handily” beaten the market, as well as Buffett’s own performance, for the second year in a row.

去年四月，巴菲特在致伯克希爾股東的年度信中，盛讚這兩位經理人的表現。巴菲特曾暗示，待到他離開伯克希爾，康姆斯和韋施勒很可能接管該公司大部分股票投資組合。巴菲特當時在信中寫道，康姆斯和韋施勒已經連續兩年“輕鬆”跑贏大盤，並勝過巴菲特本人的投資業績。

The managers will not be able to claim a three-peat. The biggest drag on Combs’ performance was Chicago Bridge & Iron CBI -1.85% , which was his biggest holding coming into 2014. The share price of the Netherlands-based construction company, which specializes in the oil and gas industry, was halved in 2014. Media company Viacom VIAB 0.32% , down nearly 15% for the year, was another laggard for Combs. Combs’ other picks did well, like defense contractor General Dynamics GD -0.08% and credit card company Visa V 0.29% , up 44% and 17%, respectively. But that wasn’t enough to push his portfolio above water for the year.

可惜兩人未能獲得三連冠。對康姆斯的投資業績拖累最大的，是芝加哥橋樑鋼鐵公司，這也是他在2014年伊始最重倉持有的個股。這家總部位於荷蘭、專注於油氣行業的建築公司，2014年股價跌去了一半。另一個拖康姆斯後腿的，是媒體公司維亞康姆，其股價在2014年下跌了近15％。康姆斯選擇的其它股票表現都不錯，比如國防承包商通用動力公司和信用卡公司維薩，在2014年分別增長了44％和17％。但是，總體而言，其投資組合還是未升反降。

Weschler’s big miss in 2014 was General Motors GM -1.65% . Shares of GM dropped 15% last year, amid massive recalls related to its ignition switches.

韋施勒2014年最失策的選擇是通用汽車。由於與點火開關相關的大規模召回，通用汽車的股價去年下跌了15％。

A number of Buffett’s own investments also didn’t fare too well in 2014. Shares of IBM IBM 0.24% , one of Berkshire’s largest holdings, fell by just over 12% last year. ExxonMobil’s stock XOM -0.37% , of which Berkshire holds $4 billion worth, has fallen 7% in the past six months. Buffett called his purchase of shares of U.K. supermarket chain Tesco, which were down 50% last year, a “big mistake.” But Buffett’s, and Berkshire’s, largest holding, mega-bank Wells Fargo WFC -0.38% , was up 24% last year.

巴菲特自身的許多投資2014年也表現不佳。伯克希爾重倉持有的IBM公司，去年股價下跌了12％以上。伯克希爾還持有價值40億美元的埃克森美孚股票，而過去半年，該公司股價已下跌7％。此外，巴菲特稱自己買入英國連鎖超市樂購的股票“大錯特錯”，去年該公司股價下跌了50％。不過，巴菲特和伯克希爾最重倉持有的大型銀行富國銀行，去年一年股價上漲了24％。

Berkshire shareholders don’t seem concerned about the ability of Buffett—or Combs or Weschler, for that matter—to manage the insurance conglomerate’s $100 billion-plus stock portfolio. The company’s shares rose 27% in 2014. Admittedly, after years of acquisitions, Berkshire’s bottom line has more to do with the performance of the increasingly large companies it owns—including, for instance, railroad giant BNSF and Heinz—and less to do with the returns of its stock market portfolio.

伯克希爾的股東似乎並不關心巴菲特——以及康姆斯或韋施勒——管理這家保險企業集團1000多億美元股票投資組合的能力。伯克希爾的股價2014年上漲了27％。誠然，經過多年收購，伯克希爾的盈虧更多的取決於旗下公司的業績，而非其股票市場投資組合的回報。伯克希爾旗下企業的規模也越來越大，其中包括鐵路巨頭BNSF公司以及食品公司亨氏集團。

Buffett and Berkshire did not return a request for comment for this story.

巴菲特和伯克希爾公司未回覆對本文置評的請求。

Buffett regularly compares the annual performance of Berkshire’s book value to the S&P 500. Last year, the company’s book value underperformed the S&P for a five-year period for the first time in Berkshire’s history. But Berkshire’s book value, like all companies, is in part a product of accounting rules, and perhaps not the best indicator of the company’s performance.

巴菲特經常將伯克希爾的年度賬面價值表現與標普500指數的表現作比較。去年，伯克希爾公司的5年間賬面價值有史以來首次跑輸標普500指數。不過，與所有公司一樣，伯克希爾公司的賬面價值在一定程度上是會計規則的產物，或許並非公司業績的最佳指標。

Berkshire doesn’t officially disclose its investment returns or those of its individual managers. But, like other large asset managers, it discloses its holdings each quarter. Fortune calculated the investment returns of Combs and Weschler based on that information. The returns do not include any changes the two managers made to their holdings in the fourth quarter, which Berkshire has yet to disclose, but those adjustments will not change the figures much. We used the same methodology to crunch Combs and Weschler’s investment performance in 2014 that we used in an article on the two Berkshire up-and-comers last year.

伯克希爾未正式披露其投資回報，或每位投資經理的投資回報。不過，與其他大型資產管理公司一樣，伯克希爾每季度會披露自身持有的股票。《財富》據此信息計算出康姆斯和韋施勒的投資回報。該數字未反映兩人在第四季度對自身投資組合做出的調整，因爲伯克希爾尚未公佈相關數據。不過，此調整不會對投資回報數字有太大影響。去年，我們做了一篇關於伯克希爾兩位新星——康姆斯和韋施勒——的報道，文中就採用了同樣的方法，來計算兩人2014年的投資業績。

Up until 2014, Combs and Weschler’s track record had been hard to beat. Combs’ portfolio was up by an astounding 51% in 2013. Through the second quarter of last year, his portfolio was up 116% since joining Berkshire. Weschler, who joined Berkshire a year later, was up 81% through the middle of last year.

直到2014年，康姆斯和韋施勒的業績記錄都難以超越。2013年，康姆斯的投資組合飆升了51％。自康姆斯加盟伯克希爾至去年第二季度，康姆斯的投資組合攀升了116％。韋施勒比康姆斯晚一年加入伯克希爾，截止去年年中，韋施勒的投資組合共上漲了81％。

In Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire shareholders last year, after saying that the investments of Combs and Weschler had outperformed his own, Buffett joked that if the ”humiliating comparisons” continue, “I’ll have no choice but to cease talking about them.” This year, Buffett has another reason to stay mum.

去年，巴菲特在致伯克希爾股東的年度信中表示，康姆斯和韋施勒的投資業績超過了他本人，並開玩笑稱，如果這種“丟臉的情況”繼續下去，“我將別無選擇，只能閉口不談他們兩人。”今年，巴菲特有另一個理由對二人避而不談。（財富中文網）