今年中國企業海外併購不會減速

In 2010 Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, the Hollywood studio behind such legendary films as The Wizard of Oz and the James Bond and Hobbit franchises, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It was the classic victim of a leveraged buyout, from a group including Providence Equity Partners and TPG Capital, alongside Sony and Comcast.

2010年，米高梅(Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)根據美國《破產法》第11章申請破產保護。這家好萊塢電影公司曾出品了《綠野仙蹤》(The Wizard of Oz)、《007》(James Bond)和《霍比特人》(The Hobbit)等家喻戶曉的影片。米高梅是槓桿收購的典型受害者，發起收購的財團中包括普羅維登斯投資(Providence Equity Partners)、德州太平洋集團(TPG Capital)、索尼(Sony)和康卡斯特(Comcast)。

The studio is currently rumoured to be the target of another group of investors with deep pockets — this time the Chinese. Mainland companies Dalian Wanda and the Fosun conglomerate are flush with cash. Dalian Wanda just went public in Hong Kong, raising almost $4bn, and Fosun has access to the coffers of its Portuguese insurer among other sources of money.

目前，有傳言稱米高梅已成爲又一個由資金雄厚的投資者組成的財團的目標——這一次是中國財團。中國大陸企業萬達集團(Dalian Wanda)和復星集團(Fosun)都手握鉅額現金。萬達剛剛在香港上市，融資近40億美元；而復星除了其他財源，還可以動用旗下葡萄牙保險公司的財力。

Both groups are interested in the movies; indeed they seem to be interested in acquiring almost anything, regardless of lack of apparent synergy. They control a dizzying range of businesses, and their purchases are coming at an accelerating speed. Moreover, they are merely two out of numerous Chinese firms on outbound buying sprees.

這兩家集團都對電影感興趣；實際上，它們似乎有興趣收購幾乎一切公司，即使與現有業務缺乏明顯協同效應也不在乎。它們都控制着令人眼花繚亂的衆多業務，而目前的收購活動正在提速。而且，它們只是大肆展開海外收購的衆多中國企業中的兩家。

Whatever the object of a possible sale, the Chinese have surfaced as potential buyers. They are becoming what private equity used to be — buyers of first resort.

無論哪家公司可能掛牌出售，潛在買家中都會出現中國企業。過去的第一買家往往都是私人股本公司，如今正變成中國企業。

It is a dramatic turnround. In 2014 mainland groups spent almost $70bn on offshore acquisitions, according to data from Dealogic. By contrast foreigners spent just $25.5bn on acquisitions going into China, down significantly from the $41.6bn peak in 2010.

這一變化可謂驚人。Dealogic數據顯示，2014年中國大陸集團的海外收購開支接近700億美元。相比之下，外資收購中國企業的金額僅255億美元，大幅低於2010年416億美元的峯值。

Soon brokers will obligingly put out lists of potential targets for the Chinese, just as they used to put out lists of take-private candidates. That way everyone else could front-run the buyout firms, purchasing shares and selling debt of target companies, which would inevitably be downgraded if the reports proved correct.

經紀商很快就將善解人意地公佈中國企業的潛在收購目標名單，就像它們過去常常公佈待私有化公司名單一樣。那樣的話，其他所有人就可能搶在收購企業之前行動，買入目標公司的股票、賣出其債券，如果收購傳聞被證實的話，這將不可避免地導致目標公司被降低評級。

Today the private equity sit on the sidelines, as the prices of companies in their sights soar way higher than those their spreadsheets tell them are reasonable. Corporate buyers with expensive shares and stagnant revenues swoop in and clinch the deals instead. It seems safe to assume that 2015 will be a big year for cross-border deals generally, whether growth picks up globally or (as seems more likely) falls short of New Year hopes.

如今，私人股本公司已在一邊觀望，因爲財務分析結果告訴它們，它們關注的目標公司的價格已飆升太高，超出合理範圍。取代它們殺入戰場達成收購協議的，是股價高、營收增長停滯的企業買主。不管全球範圍內增長復甦，還是遜於新年時的希望（這種可能性更大），我們似乎都可以放心地認爲，總體上看，2015年將是跨境收購的豐年。

There are lots of reasons to expect the Chinese to become even bigger participants, especially in the US. Movies say a lot about where China is today — increasingly urban, hungry for entertainment and able to pay for it. More and more acquisitions will be driven by the needs of this huge class of ever-more sophisticated consumers, rather than just the needs of the voracious state-owned enterprises, with their focus on natural resource extraction in emerging markets from Africa to Latin America.

我們有很多理由預計，中國企業在併購方面將扮演更重要角色，尤其是在美國市場。電影業十分有力地說明了中國的現狀——城市化程度提高、對娛樂產品如飢似渴，也有相應的消費能力。越來越多收購的驅動因素，將是這一比以往更精明的巨大消費羣體的需求，而不僅僅是胃口頗大的國企的需求。國企的關注焦點常常在於從非洲到拉美的新興市場的自然資源開採行業。

Future transactions are more likely to be driven by new players that are either private sector or less state-ish in their goals. That means more investment and acquisitions in Europe and the US, both for bargains and the most upmarket brands. These groups will be helped by the relative strength of the currency, which makes acquisitions abroad cheaper in Chinese terms.

未來交易的推動者，更有可能是來自民營領域或目標不那麼帶有政府色彩的新進入者。這意味着，它們將在歐洲和美國市場上進行更多投資和收購，目標爲價格划算的公司和最高端的品牌。人民幣的相對強勢將讓這些集團受益，因爲以人民幣計，它們在海外的收購成本會降低。

Of course the path is not entirely free of obstacles. For one thing, especially in the US, politicians and regulators have had a chilling effect on Chinese buyers since Cnooc withdrew from a planned $18.5bn purchase of Unocal in 2005 in the face of huge political opposition.

當然，海外收購之路不是毫無障礙。首先，自2005年中海油(Cnooc)迫於巨大政治壓力而撤出原定185億美元收購優尼科(Unocal)的計劃以來，政客和監管者對中國買家產生了“寒蟬效應”，尤其在美國。

The Committee on Foreign Investment, which reviews transactions with potential national security issues, has vetted deals that lawyers say have few security implications, such as a Hong Kong-based bank’s sale of a handful of US branches to a Chinese bank. It has also vetoed the Chinese sovereign wealth fund’s purchase of a 7 per cent indirect stake in a US telecoms towers company.

美國外國投資委員會(Committee on Foreign Investment)負責評估有潛在國家安全問題的收購交易，已審查了律師表示對安全影響甚小的幾項交易，比如一家香港的銀行將幾家美國分行出售給一家中資銀行的交易。該委員會還否決了中國主權財富基金收購一家美國電信塔公司7%的非直接股權的交易。

Moreover, the ambitions of Chinese managements often exceed their ability to oversee their new toys. One adviser based in China recalls pointing out that if his financial client had nobody who spoke Russian, acquiring a Russian bank might prove challenging. It is possible that the Chinese will not buy MGM or Lions Gate Entertainment or anything else in which they have expressed an interest. And if they do, and the investment goes wrong — well, it will not be the first time. We have seen this movie before.

另外，中國企業管理層管理新購企業的能力常常跟不上抱負。一位駐中國的顧問回憶自己曾經指出，如果他的金融業客戶公司裏誰也不會講俄語，那麼收購一家俄羅斯銀行可能很有挑戰。可能中國企業最終將不會收購米高梅、獅門娛樂(Lions Gate Entertainment)或任何其他它們曾表達興趣的公司。如果它們確實收購了，並且投資出了問題——好吧，那將不是第一次。我們以前也看到過這種橋段。