中國海外併購將後繼乏力

This year has all signs of becoming another bumper year for Chinese overseas mergers and acquisition activity. In the first three months alone, the total value of cross-border deals nearly reached 2015 annual totals ($101bn and $109bn, respectively).

對中國的海外併購活動來說，有種種跡象表明今年又是一個豐收年。僅在今年頭3個月，跨境協議總價值就達到1010億美元，接近2015年全年1090億美元的水平。

High-profile deals from the last three months include: Dalian Wanda’s $3.5bn acquisition of Legendary Pictures, a US media company, Haier’s $5.4bn takeover of GE’s appliances unit and most notably ChemChina’s record-setting $43bn bid for Syngenta, a Swiss-based agri-business group.

過去3個月備受矚目的交易包括：大連萬達(Dalian Wanda)以35億美元收購美國傳媒公司傳奇影業(Legendary Pictures)；海爾(Haier)以54億美元收購通用電氣(GE)旗下的家電業務；最著名的是中國化工(ChemChina)以430億美元的創紀錄金額收購瑞士農業企業先正達(Syngenta)。

However, all of this overseas business activity is occurring against a backdrop of a Chinese domestic economy that is facing myriad challenges with a slower GDP growth forecast of 6.5 per cent, reduced domestic demand and decreasing industrial profits not to mention industrial overcapacity.

然而，所有這些海外商業活動是在這樣的背景下發生的：中國國內經濟面臨大量挑戰，GDP增速預計放緩至6.5%，內需下降和工業利潤縮減，更別提還有工業產能過剩。

Now the outlook for Chinese overseas M&A may not be as bright as it seems despite the impressive Q1 figures. Chinese corporate investors are finding that it is no longer sufficient simply to “write the biggest check,” as their deals face heightened scrutiny from overseas businesses and governments alike.

儘管一季度併購數據搶眼，但中國海外併購前景可能不像表面看上去的那麼光明。中國企業投資者發現，僅僅“開最大數額的支票”不再管用了，因爲他們的交易面臨外國企業和政府的嚴格審查。

We believe there are several reasons why 2016 won’t be the record year everyone is predicting, and why overseas M&A figures originating from China may take a dip before China becomes an enduring M&A player on the international stage.

我們認爲，2016年將不會是大家意料中的創紀錄年，而且在中國成爲國際舞臺上長期的併購玩家之前，中國的海外併購數據也可能出現下降，原因有下面幾點：

Reason 1: Increasing Pressure for Transparency

理由1：要求提高透明度的壓力上升

When Anbang dropped its $14bn bid for Starwood, a US hotels group, a lot of uncertainty prevailed: would this unlisted provincial car insurer founded in 2004 finally have access to the financing it claimed?

當安邦(Anbang)放棄以140億美元競購美國酒店集團喜達屋(Starwood)的時候，存在許多未解的問題，比如說，這家創立於2004年、迄今沒有上市的省級汽車保險公司最終真能獲得其宣稱的融資嗎？

Although its political connections (the company’s chairman Wu Xiaohui is married to a grand-daughter of China’s former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping) would normally have helped, they seem to have backfired as Wall Street appeared suspicious of party and government influence.

儘管該公司的政治關係通常來說會有幫助——安邦董事長吳小暉是中國前最高領導人鄧小平的外孫女婿——但它們現在似乎適得其反，因爲華爾街似乎懷疑該公司受到黨和政府的影響。

The Anbang deal is not alone. As China’s role in international M&A continues to intensify, Chinese firms are coming under increased pressure by those involved in these deals for greater transparency with regard to ownership structure, funding sources and corporate governance. It’s not just about going out with the highest bid,but also the need to ensure the buyers will be good stewards of the business post-acquisition. Due diligence works both ways.

安邦交易並非個例。隨着中國在國際併購舞臺上的角色日益上升，中國企業日益受到來自交易相關方的壓力，它們被要求提高在所有權架構、融資來源和企業治理方面的透明度。這不僅是說賣家要與出價最高的談判，而且還需要確保買家在收購後成爲公司的好管家。盡職調查在這兩方面都有作用。

Meanwhile, the European Union is looking deeply into granting – or not – China a market economy status and finalising a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). Although these two would certainly help transparency and rules, market economy status looks increasingly unlikely this year, and BIT is under negotiation. The UK is also implementing rules requiring greater transparency. It just introduced a new law that stipulates all businesses which own more than 25 per cent of a British asset must keep a register of the people who have control over them.

與此同時，歐盟正在認真考慮關於授予（或者不授予）中國市場經濟地位、以及敲定雙邊投資協定(BIT)的事情。儘管這些無疑會有助於提高透明度和完善規則，但越來越明顯的是，中國今年不太可能獲得市場經濟地位，而BIT還在談判當中。英國也在推行旨在加大透明度的規則。它剛剛推出一項新規，要求所有持有一項英國資產逾25%股份的企業必須將控制人登記在冊。

Reason 2: Growing National Security Concerns

理由2：日益加劇的國家安全擔憂

In addition to overseas investment bankers and acquisition targets, foreign governments are growing increasingly wary of Chinese acquirers. There are obvious discrepancies between the US and European approaches, as neither the EU – nor individual member states – have set any kind of system to monitor inward investment such as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS).

除了海外投資銀行家和收購目標以外，外國政府也越來越對中國買家感到警惕。美國和歐洲的做法存在明顯差異——無論是歐盟還是歐盟成員國都沒有設立像美國外國投資委員會(CFIUS)這樣的機構來監督外來投資。

In the US, the situation is quite different: In March 2016, ZTE, the state-owned Chinese telecommunications firm, was added to a sanctions-related blacklist by the US government for national security reasons and in Europe a recent $3bn deal with Chinese investors was recently dropped by Philips Lighting because of US pressures.

在美國，情況截然不同：2016年3月，中國國有電信設備製造商中興(ZTE)被美國政府以國家安全爲由列入制裁黑名單；在歐洲，飛利浦照明(Philips Lighting)最近迫於美國方面的壓力，放棄了與中國投資者的30億美元的交易。

Governments, businesses and the public naturally fear what they don’t understand. The less clear their investment objectives are for acquiring international businesses, the more scrutiny and regulatory challenges Chinese firms will face.

各國政府、企業和公衆自然對他們不瞭解的事情感到擔憂。在收購國際企業的時候，投資目的越不清晰，中國企業面臨的審查和監管挑戰就越多。

Reason 3: Debt Pressure is Rising

理由3：債務壓力日益上升

On the same day Anbang declared that it would abandon its bid for Starwoods, the Shanghai-based Fosun group announced that it would stop pursuing overseas acquisitions.

就在安邦宣佈放棄競購喜達屋的同一天，上海復星集團(Fosun)宣佈，該公司將暫停尋求海外收購。

Over the last two years, Fosun has acquired approximately 50 firms across a variety of sectors, which include French resort operator Club Méditerranée, Greek retailer Folli Follie and a series of high profile insurance (Portugal’s Caixa Seguros, Meadowbrook) and real estate assets. According to reports, Fosun’s net debt rose to 112 per cent of equity attributable to shareholders at the end of 2014 and ended last year at 91 per cent.

在過去兩年裏，復星收購了涵蓋不同行業的近50家企業，包括法國度假村集團地中海俱樂部(Club Méditerranée)、希臘零售商Folli Follie、一系列知名保險公司（葡萄牙的Caixa Seguros和美國的Meadowbrook）以及房地產資產。據報道，復星的淨債務與股東權益比率在2014年底升至112%，去年末爲91%。

Fosun’s decision demonstrates that Chinese firms do not have unlimited access to funding to help advance overseas M&A initiatives. As with companies from any other country, there is a limit to how much a single Chinese firm can absorb and integrate while pushing forward with new investment initiatives. The handful of companies that repeatedly appear in the headlines will likely need to follow Fosun’s lead and reassess their long-term global M&A strategy before diving into the next deal.

復星的決定表明，中國企業不會獲得無限融資來幫助推進海外併購行動。與其他所有國家的企業一樣，一家中國企業在推進新投資計劃的同時所能吸收和整合的資產數量是有限的。屢次出現在新聞頭條的幾家公司可能需要效仿復星，在準備開展新交易前重新評估它們的長期全球併購戰略。

We are not saying that the massive increase in M&A originating from China will reach an end, but that there is likely going to be a correction as Chinese companies adjust to the fact that successful deals are no longer sealed simply by writing the biggest check. While the investment capital will certainly help, executives will need to be able to answer questions about where the capital is coming from, who owns the company and how the acquisition will be managed within the existing business portfolio.

我們並非說來自中國的併購活動將不再大規模增加，而是說，由於如今僅憑開出最大額支票已不能保證成功簽署協議，中國公司將需要適應這一事實，因此中企海外併購活動可能出現調整。儘管投資資本當然會有所幫助，但高管們將需要能夠回答關於資金來源、公司所有人以及在現有業務結構下如何管理新收購業務的問題。