歐洲央行在資產購買問題上出現分歧
Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, has maintained he can deliver measures to stave off economic stagnation in the eurozone next year, despite renewed signs of tensions between policy makers at the central bank.
儘管歐洲央行(ECB)政策制定者之間再次出現緊張跡象，行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)仍堅稱，他在明年能夠採取措施以防範歐元區經濟陷入停滯。
Old wounds between governing council members were reopened yesterday, after splits emerged over a slight toughening of the language on plans to swell the ECB’s balance sheet by about 1tn.
歐洲央行管理委員會成員之間的舊傷昨日被重新撕開。歐洲央行計劃將資產負債表規模擴大1萬億美元左右，在加強這一計劃措辭的語氣問題上，成員之間產生了分歧。The ECB strengthened its forward guidance by saying the central bank “intends” to expand its balance sheet to about 3tn to boost inflation, rather than simply “expecting” to meet this objective.
歐洲央行強化了其預期指引，表示“計劃”將其資產負債表規模擴大至3萬億歐元左右，以提高通脹，而不僅僅是“期待”實現這一目標。
But the semantic change was not unanimous, with dissent coming from members of the executive board of top ECB officials, as well as some national central bank governors. The disagreement happened in spite of staff economists slashing their forecasts for growth and inflation in the currency area.
但措辭的改變並沒有經過一致同意，不同意見來自由歐洲央行高級官員組成的執委會成員以及一些國家的央行行長。儘管在歐洲央行任職的經濟學家大幅調降了歐元區的增長和通脹預期，但政策制定者中間仍然出現了分歧。The council was in agreement, however, that if lower oil prices began to threaten the outlook for inflation, or its existing measures disappointed, then more radical easing was warranted. A downbeat assessment in the first quarter “would imply altering early next year the size, pace and composition of our measures”, policy makers said in their monthly statement.
但該委員會在以下問題上達成了共識：如果油價下跌開始威脅通脹前景，或者現有措施令人失望，那麼將有必要實行更激進的寬鬆政策。決策者在其月度聲明中表示，如果在一季度的評估不樂觀，“將意味着在明年初要改變我們所採取措施的規模、速度和構成。”Mr Draghi was adamant that the ECB did not need unanimity in its governing council to take further steps, such as extending purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds to include instruments such as corporate and sovereign debt.
德拉吉堅決表示，歐洲央行不需要獲得其管理委員會的一致同意來採取進一步措施，例如擴大資產購買範圍，在資產支持證券和擔保債券以外，將公司和主權債券等工具也包括在內。“There were major decisions where there was no unanimity,” the ECB president said, adding that policy makers were “not politicians” and had to stick to their mandate of keeping inflation on track. Not to do so would be “illegal”.
德拉吉表示：“以前一些重大決策就沒有獲得一致同意，”他補充稱，決策者“不是政治家”，必須堅持其使通脹維持在正常軌道的使命。不這麼做將是“非法”的。The ECB president stressed the latest projections, which forecast inflation of less than half the target of just below 2 per cent next year, did not include the most recent drop in oil prices. Inflation is already back at its five-year low of 0.3 per cent and is likely to dip again on the back of the most recent falls in crude.
德拉吉強調，最新預測沒有將油價最近下跌考慮在內。歐洲央行目前預測，明年通脹率將不到其設定的略低於2%目標的一半。目前通脹率已回到0.3%的5年低點，在最近油價下跌的背景下，可能會再次下滑。Dirk Schumacher, economist at Goldman Sachs, said: “In normal times, central bankers would look through what happens to oil prices. But today’s not normal, and so a fall in oil prices now has more of a direct consequence for inflation expectations.”
高盛(Goldman Sachs)經濟學家德克•舒馬赫(Dirk Schumacher)表示：“正常情況下，央行行長們不太關注油價變化。但現在是非常時期，因此油價下跌現在會對通脹預期產生更多的直接影響。”
