日本量化寬鬆政策的實質

The yen has been losing value at a more rapid pace against the dollar since the Bank of Japan launched its latest round of quantitative easing a month ago, and was trading at more than Y118 to the greenback at last glance.

自一個月前日本央行(Bank of Japan)啓動最新一輪量化寬鬆以來，日元兌美元匯率就一直在更加快速地下跌，在我寫這篇文章時已跌至1美元兌118日元上方。

Monetary easing, the first arrow of Abenomics, has always been the most efficacious in Tokyo’s quiver. But its purpose is only partly about the central bank’s oft-voiced commitment to driving inflation up and ending a deflationary mindset, a mindset politicians insist is responsible for weak consumption and weak capital expenditure. That first arrow is about driving down the yen and stimulating exports. Everything else is more needles than arrows.

安倍經濟學(Abenomics)射出的第一支箭是貨幣寬鬆，它一直是日本政府箭筒中最有殺傷力的一支。但履行日本央行經常申明的推升通脹和結束通縮思維（政治人士堅稱這種思維導致了消費和資本支出疲軟）的承諾，只是射出這支箭的部分原因。射出這第一支箭的主要目的，是要壓低日元匯率和刺激出口。其他都是次要的。

That disguised cheap yen policy meant that in the third quarter, exports were up 5.3 per cent in a world where trade is stagnant and has been for a couple of years. That data point was the only healthy one in a dismal period – even by Japanese standards. Private consumption rose a meagre 1.5 per cent after an 18.6 per cent drop the previous quarter and capex was a negative 0.9 per cent after a 17.9 per cent plunge in the second quarter. In other words, in a period where GDP was also negative, trade accounted for a positive 0.4 per cent contribution to growth.

這一經過僞裝的廉價日元政策的結果是，在近幾年來世界貿易總額增長基本停滯的背景下，日本出口額在今年第三季度增長了5.3%。這一數據可謂是低迷時期唯一健康的數據，即使以日本的標準來衡量也是如此。私人消費僅增長1.5%，第二季度下滑18.6%；資本支出下滑0.9%，第二季度下滑17.9%。換句話說，在這段國內生產總值(GDP)增長也爲負的時期，貿易爲GDP增長貢獻了正0.4個百分點。

The Japanese arrow has not gone unnoticed by competitors. In mid-November, the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates. In part that is because the cost of capital in China has been too high for many borrowers. But it is also because the Chinese currency has moved up 10 per cent from its lows of earlier this year. “The PBOC would not have moved as quickly as last Friday if it were not for Kamikaze Kuroda,” noted Chris Wood of the CLSA unit of Citic Securities. The Bank of Korea has already cut rates twice, most recently in October.

日本的競爭對手們並非沒有注意到日本射出的這支箭。11月中旬，中國央行降息。此舉的部分原因在於，對很多借款者而言，中國的資金成本太高。但還有部分原因在於，人民幣匯率已較今年早些時候的低點上漲了10%。中信證券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂證券(CLSA)的分析師克里斯•伍德(Chris Wood)指出：“如果不是因爲黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)表現得像神風特攻隊那樣，中國央行本不會在上週五就採取行動。”韓國央行(Bank of Korea)已兩次降息，最近一次是在10月。

That suggests the world is entering a new phase where quantitative easing, once the tool of choice to stimulate ailing economies in the developed world, is going to be increasingly deployed in the emerging world. QE has become the latest – albeit apparently indirect – weapon in driving down currencies. Currency wars are especially intense when global trade is stagnant and one country’s gains come at the expense of rivals.

這表明，全球正進入一個新時期，曾是發達國家刺激乏力經濟之利器的量化寬鬆政策，將越來越多地被新興世界使用。量化寬鬆已成爲壓低匯率的（儘管表面上看是非直接的）最新武器。在全球貿易增長陷於停滯、一國的收益要靠競爭對手的損失來實現時，匯率大戰就變得特別激烈。

“A sustained weakening in the yen will have regional consequences. The depreciation of the Korean won and Taiwan dollar will likely accelerate, making the regional backdrop resemble that in the quarters leading up to the Asian crisis in 1997,” warns Stephen Jen, of research boutique SLJ Macro in London.

倫敦小型研究機構SLJ Macro的任永力(Stephen Jen)警告稱：“日元持續走低將對該地區產生影響。韓元和新臺幣很可能會加速貶值，這讓該地區的局面類似於1997年亞洲金融危機爆發前的幾個季度。”

China’s cut in particular caught economists by surprise. “Positive real rate differentials and continued current account surpluses in China only make it harder to engineer a sustained depreciation trend in the renminbi,” Morgan Stanley strategists warn. “In the scenario that the PBoC weakens forex as a policy tool, we would expect global disinflationary currents to come further to the fore.” These analysts add that currencies most vulnerable under that scenario include the euro, Swiss franc, yen, Singapore dollar and Thai baht. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to commit to more unconventional monetary policy, which will probably cause the euro's value to decline. Remember that Germany competes directly with Japan in third markets, whether for the capital equipment that most manufacturers need for their own production or for luxury cars.

中國的降息尤其令經濟學家感到意外。“中國的正實際利差和經常賬戶持續盈餘只會讓中國更難策動人民幣持續貶值的趨勢，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的策略師警告稱，“在中國央行降低匯率作爲一種政策工具的份量的情況下，我們預計全球的通脹減緩趨勢將進一步顯現出來。”這些分析師補充稱，在這種情況下，最爲脆弱的貨幣包括歐元、瑞士法郎、日元、新加坡元以及泰銖。與此同時，預計歐洲央行(ECB)將致力於更加非常規的貨幣政策，這很可能會導致歐元貶值。請記住，德國是與日本在第三方市場展開直接競爭，不管是就資本設備（大多數製造商自身的生產都需要這類設備）還是就豪華汽車而言。

At the same time, the US dollar is now at a five-year high and again economists are lowering forecasts for growth in the US for the last quarter of the year (from 3 per cent to 2.3 per cent, in the case of Barclays). That underscores the fact that QE does not seem to do much to transform the pace of economic growth on either side of the Pacific.

與此同時，美元匯率正處於5年高位，經濟學家正再次調降對今年最後一個季度美國經濟增速的預期，例如巴克萊(Barclays)就從3%調降至2.3%。這突顯出下列事實：量化寬鬆似乎並沒有在很大程度上改變歐美的經濟增速。

The resort to QE as the tactic of choice to drive down the value of a given currency is doubly sad because the combination of QE and low rates stimulates asset prices and financial engineering far more than capital spending and improvements in the real economy. It is fiscal stimulus that can contribute to growth in the real economy.

將量化寬鬆作爲壓低某一貨幣匯率的首選策略，真的很令人遺憾，因爲量化寬鬆和低利率這一組合對資產價格和金融操作的刺激，遠大於對資本支出和實體經濟改善的提振。能對實體經濟增長做出貢獻的是財政刺激。