分析師別對中國油企過於樂觀

Denial is not a stockpicking strategy. Last year’s pastime, watching gold prices fall, has given way to watching oil prices drop. Yet analysts’ expectations for Chinese oil companies have not changed much. Oil prices have fallen a quarter since June. Analysts’ targets have been largely unmoved.

“否認現實”不是什麼好的選股策略。去年人們的一項消遣是觀看金價下跌，如今則變成了觀看油價下跌。然而，分析師對中國石油企業的預期卻沒有發生多大改變。自今年6月以來，油價已下跌四分之一。分析師對這些企業給出的估值目標卻基本未變。

Then, on Wednesday, Chinese oil producers Cnooc and PetroChina announced third-quarter earnings. Both missed analysts’ forecasts. Shares in PetroChina slipped 2 per cent and Cnooc dropped 5 per cent; analysts cut their recommendations on the latter. Oil prices were still not to blame. The problem was Cnooc’s production outlook. The previous growth goal of 6-10 per cent excluded Nexen, acquired last year. The outlook was unchanged but included the Canadian company, implicitly lowering the forecast.

本週三，中國油企中海油(Cnooc)和中石油(PetroChina)公佈了第三季度盈利，盈利都不及分析師預期。中石油股價下跌了2%，中海油下跌了5%；分析師調降了對中海油的投資評級。但他們仍然沒有把罪名扣到油價頭上，而是認爲中海油的產量前景堪憂。中海油此前6%至10%的增長目標並不包含去年購得的尼克森(Nexen)。此次雖然產量前景未作調整，但這是納入這家加拿大公司之後的結果，這暗示着分析師調降了對這家公司的產量增長預期。

It is only one quarter. Hence PetroChina’s relative stability. But cheap oil may yet do more damage. Chinese majors price their sales off spot crude with a lag of about one month, according to Barclays. This means at least one more poor quarter to come. And even if a half year of weak earnings does not hit share price targets, sustained low prices must.

這只是一個季度，因此中石油還相對穩定。但便宜的石油還可能會帶來更多傷害。巴克萊(Barclays)表示，中國石油巨頭們的原油售價比國際現貨原油價格滯後一個月左右。這意味着，疲弱的業績至少還會持續一個季度。此外，即便半年疲軟的盈利不會影響股價目標，油價長期處於低位也肯定會影響。

The mooted floor price for oil hovers around $80. Analysts’ long-term assumptions are higher. Barclays and JPMorgan, for instance, expect a long-term oil price of $95 and $90, respectively. Forecasts for the nearer years are higher yet. But if prices remain low, not only will profitability decline but production growth may be impacted, too.

有些人認爲，油價的底部在每桶80美元左右。分析師的長期預期比這要高一些。例如，巴克萊和摩根大通(JPMorgan)分別預期長期油價爲每桶95美元和每桶90美元。對未來幾年油價的預期則更高。但如果油價仍然處於低位，不僅盈利水平會下滑，產量增長也可能會受到影響。

There is a positive. Markets are not buying analysts’ nonchalance. PetroChina and Cnooc’s share prices imply Brent in the mid $70s for Cnooc and about $80 for PetroChina, according to Barclays. Put differently, Cnooc’s share price implies $80 Brent and production growth of just 6 per cent – the low end of the company’s targets. So when analysts capitulate, the market may only shrug.

一個積極因素是，市場對分析師的鎮定態度並不買賬。巴克萊稱，中石油和中海油的股價暗示着，就中海油的情況而言，布倫特(Brent)原油價格在每桶75美元左右，就中石油的情況而言，在每桶80美元左右。如果換種算法，那麼中海油的股價暗示着，布倫特原油價格爲每桶80美元、而產量增長只有6%——位於該公司產量增長目標的底端。因此，當分析師向現實投降時，可能並不會在市場中掀起多大波瀾。