中國經濟走勢,恰如霧裏看花

HONG KONG — Markets around the world have been jolted by fears that slowing growth and deflationary pressures in Europe, Japan and other major economies could derail the United States. But the health of China, for decades an engine of growth, has emerged as one of the most significant wild cards in the global economy.

香港——由於擔心歐洲、日本及其他主要經濟體的增長放緩和通縮壓力可能危及美國，全球市場正陷入恐慌。而作爲幾十年來的增長引擎，中國的經濟狀況已成爲全球經濟的一個最大變數。

It is hard to be certain just exactly how the Chinese economy is faring, given mixed signals in the data.

很難確定中國經濟到底表現如何，原因是數據中呈現的複雜信息。

Chinese inflation is at its weakest levels in nearly five years. Commodity prices are plunging. New home sales are declining. Foreign investment is contracting.

中國的通脹處於近五年來的最低水平。大宗商品價格大幅下跌。新房銷售不斷下滑。外國投資正不斷縮水。

The overall economy, though, continues to chug along at a steady, albeit more modest, pace. China's gross domestic product increased by 7.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 7.5 percent in the previous quarter. While that was the lowest quarterly growth since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, the rate remains the envy of major economies. The economy also continues adding jobs at a good clip, and the currency is one of very few that are still rising against the dollar.

不過，整個經濟仍然平穩增長，雖然速度更加緩慢。中國的GDP三季度增長了7.3%，相比之下，前一季度的增幅爲7.5%。儘管這是2009年金融危機最嚴重時期以來的最低季度增幅，這個速度仍然讓主要經濟體豔羨不已。中國的新增就業崗位仍在大幅增加，而人民幣則是兌美元匯率仍在上升的少數幣種之一。

"The question or problem we are all facing at the moment is, ‘What is right picture for the economy as a whole?' " said Louis Kuijs, the chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong. "It's complicated by negative forces that show up very strongly in industry but not in the service sector."

“我們所有人目前面臨的疑問或問題是，‘中國整體經濟狀況的真實圖景是什麼？'”蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)駐香港的首席經濟學家高路易(Louis Kuijs)說。“令整體狀況更加複雜的消極力量來自於實業，而不是服務業。”

Making sense of China's economic health is challenging because the slowdown is partly by design.

看懂中國經濟狀況極具挑戰性，因爲經濟放緩部分源自刻意安排。

The Communist leadership has pledged to reduce China's dependence on credit-fueled growth and investment, to instead emphasize domestic consumption. It is a risky proposal, and leaders have signaled a willingness to live with slower growth, provided employment holds up and systemic risks are contained.

中共領導層已經承諾減少中國對信貸推動的增長以及投資的依賴，要轉而重視國內消費。這是一個存在風險的計劃，但領導人已經表示，只要就業市場堅挺、系統風險可控，願意接受增長放緩的事實。

One figure that Chinese leaders study closely is the number of new jobs. Li Keqiang, China's prime minister, boasted in a speech at a World Economic Forum meeting last month that nearly 10 million urban jobs had been created in the first eight months of the year, up slightly from a year ago. As a result, he said, he would not mind if the growth of the gross domestic product fell short of this year's official target of 7.5 percent.

中國領導人密切關注的一個數據是新增就業崗位。中國總理李克強上個月在世界經濟論壇會議上的演講中驕傲地說，今年前8個月，中國城鎮新增就業近1000萬人，比上一年有小幅增長。他說，因此，GDP增長低於今年7.5%的官方目標也是可以接受的。

"An important goal of maintaining stable growth is to ensure employment, and the floor of the proper range is to ensure relatively adequate employment," he said at the meeting in Tianjin.

“穩增長是爲了保就業，調控的下限是比較充分的就業，”他在天津的這次會議上說。

But even in the jobs figures, broad disparities exist across China. Employment has grown solidly in the services sector nearly every month in the last five years, according to the purchasing managers index compiled by HSBC and Markit. By contrast, manufacturing employment, which generally expanded from 2009 through 2011, has mostly contracted since.

但即使是在就業方面，中國各地的數據也存在着較大差異。匯豐銀行(HSBC)和Markit編制的採購經理人指數顯示，過去五年，服務領域的就業人數幾乎每月都會出現穩定增長。相比之下，製造業的就業人數雖然從2009年到2011年總地來說是在擴大，此後的多數時間都在下降。

At an employment fair for the medical appliance industry at a government-run career center near the Lama Temple in Beijing last week, more than a hundred job seekers bantered with recruiters and weighed their options. A 42-year-old man who gave only his surname, Mr. Lin, was applying for a job at Beijing Niubao Technology, a chemical equipment maker.

上週，北京的雍和宮附近一個政府運營的就業指導中心，舉行了一場醫療器械行業的招聘會。100多位求職者與用人單位攀談着，權衡着自己的選擇。42歲的林先生正在申請北京紐堡科技有限公司的一個職位，這是一家化學設備生產商。

With 20 years of experience in a specialized industry, Mr. Lin expressed confidence about his prospects despite the overall outlook in the sector. "Manufacturing isn't doing so great in the past few years, but I think chemical equipment is still doing relatively O.K.," he said.

由於在專業領域擁有20年的經驗，雖然行業的整體狀況不佳，林先生仍然表示對自己的前途充滿信心。“製造業過去幾年的表現不是很好，但我認爲化工設備相對來說還算可以，”他說。

That somewhat positive outlook is a sharp contrast to most traditional industries. "We didn't have any new recruits this year," Huang Xinqun, 48, a manager at a large ocean-shipping company, said last week. "Usually when the manufacturing business is not doing so well, it would be directly reflected on us," he said.

這種比較積極的態度與多數傳統行業的情況形成了強烈對比。“我們今年沒有任何招聘，”48歲的大型遠洋運輸公司經理黃新羣（音）上週說。“通常當製造業不景氣的時候，會直接在我們這裏反映出來，”他說。

"We're like a signal post on how the economy is doing," Mr. Huang said. "If companies don't have that many orders and products to transport, then we don't have as much work."

“我們就像是經濟狀況的信號燈，”黃新羣說。“如果企業沒有那麼多訂單和需要運輸的產品，我們就沒有多少工作要做。”

Despite the signs of malaise in China's manufacturing and industrial sectors, the government is wary of repeating the significant stimulus measures it undertook after the financial crisis. Leaders are worried that would add to China's ballooning debt, which rose to 250 percent of gross domestic product at the end of June, from 150 percent five years ago, according to estimates by Standard Chartered Bank.

儘管中國製造業及工業領域出現低迷跡象，政府對再次實施金融危機後採取的重大刺激舉措持謹慎態度。領導人擔心，這會增加中國不斷膨脹的債務。據渣打銀行(Standard Chartered Bank)估計，截至6月底，中國債務規模達到GDP的250%，而五年前，這個比率爲150%。

Instead, policy makers in recent months have used targeted, behind-the-scenes stimulus measures, including extending limited amounts of short-term credit to large and medium-size banks. The government also has directed more financing to favored projects, like supporting agricultural efforts and redeveloping shantytowns.

最近幾個月，政策制定者採用了具有針對性的幕後刺激舉措，包括給予大中型銀行有限的短期信貸。政府還將更多資金投入其屬意的項目，比如支持農業發展，及重建棚戶區。

"Things can be done to bolster activity for short periods of time, but I think the fundamental theme is a persistent ratcheting down in the measured rate of growth," said George Magnus, a financial consultant and a former chief economist at UBS. "China is in for an extended period of volatility."

“可以做些事情在短期內增強市場活力，但我覺得根本的主題是監測到的增長率持續走低，”金融顧問、前瑞銀(UBS)首席經濟學家喬治·馬格納斯(George Magnus)說。“中國正在進入一段相當長的波動期。”

Other major indicators offer similarly contradictory perspectives on the progress of China's economic transition.

其他反映中國經濟轉型進展的重要指標同樣存在矛盾。

Retail sales are rising at their slowest pace in nearly a decade, seemingly casting doubt on the ability of Chinese consumers to drive economic growth. But with an increase of about 12 percent in value this year, sales are hardly anemic.

零售銷售的增長速度降至近10年來的最低點，這似乎引起了對中國消費者拉動經濟增長的能力的懷疑。但由於價值上漲了12%，銷售不算疲軟。

What is more, official sales figures fail to capture the explosive growth of online shopping in China. The statistics bureau only began including the sales of some unnamed, large Internet retailers in its data this year. But Mark Williams, the chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, estimates that official retail sales figures only capture about one-sixth of the online purchases in China.

而且官方銷售數據沒能反映出中國網絡購物的迅速發展。統計局今年纔開始將一些未指明的大型網絡零售商的銷售情況計入數據。但凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)首席亞洲經濟學家馬克·威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)認爲，官方零售銷售數據只計入了六分之一的網購量。

Trade figures, too, are somewhat unclear. Reported Chinese exports rose 15.3 percent last month, their biggest increase since 2013. But that was partly because of a 34 percent increase in exports to Hong Kong.

貿易數據也有點含糊不清。公開的中國出口額上月增長15.3%，這是自2013年以來的最大漲幅。但這部分是因爲對香港出口增加了34%。

The dynamic has prompted some economists to question whether trade figures are again being distorted by so-called over-invoicing. The practice was rampant two years ago, when China's reported exports to Hong Kong surged when companies disguised speculative capital inflows as the proceeds from trade. Hong Kong's separately reported imports from China are much lower, which economists say is evidence of the practice.

這種情況促使一些經濟學家懷疑開高價發票的行爲是否再次導致貿易數據失真。兩年前，這種做法非常普遍，當時公司將投機資本的涌入掩飾成貿易收益，中國報告稱對港出口劇增。而香港方面報告的進口額要低得多。經濟學家稱，這證明中國存在上述行爲。

The most problematic economic indicator in China may be gross domestic product itself. Though economists say the data broadly are improving, the numbers do not always seem to add up. For example, the combined G.D.P. reported by each of China's provinces still regularly exceeds the official total for the country.

在中國，問題最多的經濟指標可能是GDP本身。雖然經濟學家表示，這一數據總體上在不斷完善，但相關數字似乎並不總能自圓其說。例如，將中國各省報告的GDP加在一起得出的數據經常會超過官方發佈的中國GDP。

Even Mr. Li, the prime minister, has at times expressed doubts over this benchmark measure of output. In 2007, when he was governor of Liaoning Province in northeastern China, Mr. Li privately acknowledged to a visiting American diplomat that China's G.D.P. figures were unreliable and "for reference only" because they were "man-made," according to a confidential diplomatic cable released in 2010 by WikiLeaks.

甚至連李克強總理有時都對這種針對產出的基準數據表示懷疑。維基解密(WikiLeaks)2010年公佈的機密外交電報顯示，2007年，在中國東北遼寧省擔任省委書記的李克強私下與一名到訪的美國外交官交流時承認，中國的GDP數據並不可靠，“僅供參考”，原因是“人爲因素”。

Since then, many economists have supplemented China's official figures with their own versions of a "Li Keqiang Index," alternative measures based on what Mr. Li said were his bellwethers of economic expansion. They include electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and the value of loans disbursed.

此後，很多經濟學家都結合“克強指數”分析中國的官方數據，“克強指數”是基於李克強所說的經濟擴張風向標的另類測量指標，由耗電量、鐵路貨運量和銀行貸款發放量三個指標組成。

"Certainly these data have the potential to be more reliable but there are complications there, too," said Carsten Holz, a professor of social science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology who has scrutinized China's economic data.

香港科技大學(Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)社會科學教授穆嘉(Carsten Holz)表示，“這些數據有可能是更可靠的，但這裏也存在問題。”

"It's a planned economy thing," Mr. Holz said of the Li Keqiang indexes, likening them to tallying apples on a tree but making no attempt to calculate their value.

穆嘉稱克強指數相當於計算樹上蘋果數量而不嘗試計算它們的價值，“是種計劃經濟的做法”。

"It is a very rudimentary measure, because you don't know how many of these apples are rotten, or measure how big they are," he said. "You are just counting apples."

“這是一個極其粗略的指標，因爲你不知道有多少蘋果已經腐爛，也沒有測量蘋果有多大，”他說。“你只是在數蘋果。”