年大宗農產品走勢要看中國
China’s handling of its state reserves of raw materials such as cotton and sugar will be a key factor shaping the direction of agricultural commodities in 2017, according to a major lender to agribusinesses.
一家貸款給農業企業的大型銀行稱，中國對棉花和糖等原材料官方儲備的處置，將成爲影響2017年大宗農產品走勢的一個關鍵因素。
China is the most striking wild card that will drive agricultural markets, said Stefan Vogel, head of agri commodity markets at Rabobank,
荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)大宗農產品市場主管斯特凡.沃熱爾(Stefan Vogel)表示，中國是推動農產品市場的最引人注目的變數。
the Dutch lender that is a leading financier to farmers and agribusinesses around the world.
荷蘭合作銀行是面向全球農戶和農業企業的領先融資機構。
Any decision by China’s policymakers to begin selling down the country’s huge reserves would have a large impact on markets.
中國政策制定者的任何開始減持國內鉅額儲備的決定，都將對市場產生巨大影響。
Whether China opens the stock floodgates or not will be a major price-driver in cotton and sugar — and potentially also in corn, soyabean or vegetable oil — markets in 2017, the bank said in its report.
該銀行在其報告中稱：中國是否減持庫存將成爲2017年棉花和糖市場的主要價格推動因素，玉米、大豆或植物油可能也是如此。
Beijing is looking to unload excess reserves built up under the government’s subsidy policy.
中國正考慮出售在政府補貼政策下累積的過剩儲備。
It set minimum prices too high for commodities including cotton, sugar and corn, and as those prices diverged from the market prices, authorities encouraged excessive production as well as strong import flows.
中國爲包括棉花、糖和玉米在內的大宗商品設置的最低價格過高，當這些價格偏離市場價格時，政府鼓勵了過度生產以及強勁的進口。
Agricultural raw materials, especially the so called soft commodities such as sugar, coffee and cotton, have been among the top performers this year.
農業原材料，特別是所謂的軟性大宗商品，例如糖、咖啡和棉花，今年的表現在最佳之列。
The Bloomberg soft commodities index has gained 21 per cent, compared with 24 per cent for industrial metals and 1.5 per cent for energy.
彭博(Bloomberg)軟性大宗商品指數上漲21%，工業金屬和能源指數則分別上漲24%和1.5%。
Grains have fallen about 3 per cent.
糧食指數下滑約3%。
On the US, Rabobank said it was cautious on the outlook following the election as president this month of Donald Trump.
荷蘭合作銀行表示，在本月唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統後，該行對美國的前景持謹慎態度。
The US president-elect has pledged to abandon trade agreements which could have wide-reaching effects on American imports and exports of commodities if trade agreements are revised.
這位當選總統承諾廢除貿易協議：如果這些貿易協議被修訂，可能會對美國大宗商品的進口和出口造成廣泛影響。
Speculative trading of agricultural commodities has been a feature of the markets’ volatility in 2016, and Rabobank expects the trend to continue.
大宗農產品投機交易一直是今年市場波動的一個特點，荷蘭合作銀行預測，這種趨勢將繼續。
With interest rates expected to rise only slowly, commodities are likely to attract hedge funds and other speculative investors looking for juicier returns, said the bank.
該銀行表示，由於利率只會緩慢上行，大宗商品可能會吸引那些尋找更高收益率的對衝基金和其他投機客。
It predicts index funds, or those that track commodities indices, to be back in the agricultural market in the second half of 2017, as they look for a hedge against inflation.
該銀行預測，尋找對衝通脹的方式的指數基金（那些追蹤大宗商品指數的基金），將在明年下半年迴歸農產品市場。
Volatility in currency markets is also likely to be a factor for agricultural commodity prices in the next 12 months, with the euro likely to depreciate as a result of French, Dutch and German elections, Rabobank reckons.
荷蘭合作銀行認爲，外匯市場波動性也可能會成爲影響未來12個月大宗農產品價格的因素，法國、荷蘭和德國大選可能會導致歐元貶值。
Currency movements have had a strong impact on agricultural commodity prices this year, with the UK’s referendum on the EU leading to a sharp fall in the pound that pushed up the price of food imports and boosted agricultural exports.
匯率走勢今年已對大宗農產品價格產生有力影響，英國退歐公投曾導致英鎊匯率重挫，這推升了英國食品進口價格並提振了農產品出口。
By contrast, the strengthening of the Brazilian real helped the surge in coffee and sugar prices as the country is the largest producer of both.
相比之下，巴西雷亞爾升值促使咖啡和糖價格飆升，因爲該國是這兩種商品的最大生產國。
In terms of individual commodities, coffee prices, which are trading at about $1.62 a pound, are expected to decline significantly, with an especially bearish outlook on arabica coffee.
從單個大宗商品來看，預計咖啡價格將大幅下跌，目前爲1磅1.62美元左右，投資者對阿拉比卡咖啡前景尤爲悲觀。
As consumers in developing countries continue to shift to meat-based diets, grains and oilseeds used as livestock feed are expected to see support.
隨着發展中國家消費者繼續轉向以肉爲主的飲食，預計用作牲畜飼料的糧食和油籽將找到支撐。
Soyabeans which are trading above $10 a bushel are expected to remain strong, while dairy prices are also expected to rise during 2017 as demand steadily increases, said the bank.
荷蘭合作銀行表示，預計大豆價格將保持強勁，目前在1蒲式耳10美元上方，同時由於需求穩定上升，預計奶製品價格明年也將上漲。
