中國大宗農產品庫存達歷史高位

Chinese stockpiles of agricultural commodities have hit historically high levels, complicating efforts to phase out a policy of state buying without causing a steep fall in prices, according to Beijing’s most senior agricultural adviser.

按照中國政府最資深農業顧問的說法，中國農業大宗商品庫存達到歷史高位，這讓政府很難做到在不導致價格大幅下跌的前提下逐步取消國家收購政策。

Government buying of cotton, wheat, corn, soya, sugar and rice at above market prices has encouraged farmers to grow strategic crops. But the practice has led to bloated warehouses, smuggling and an increase in cheaper imports.

近年政府以高於市場的價格買入棉花、小麥、玉米、大豆、糖和大米，這種做法鼓勵農民種植具有戰略重要地位的農作物。然而，這也導致了庫存過高、走私行爲、以及相對廉價的進口商品的增長。

China has amassed 60 per cent of the world’s cotton stocks, prompting an announcement by Beijing last year that it would release its cotton holdings.

目前，中國的棉花庫存佔全球60%。這一局面促使中國政府在去年宣佈，它將釋放其棉花庫存。

The bigger the stockpiles grow, the harder it is for the government to extricate itself. Dumping the glut into the market would reverberate through the international sector because China has become a large buyer of agricultural commodities.

庫存增長得越高，政府脫身的難度就越大。由於中國已經成爲農業大宗商品的大買家，將過剩商品投入市場，會在國際市場引發震盪。

Policy makers fear that releasing inventories would depress prices and push farmers towards more lucrative cash crops, increasing reliance on imports.

中國政策制定者擔心，釋放庫存會抑制作物價格，促使農民轉向更有利可圖的經濟作物，從而增加對進口的依賴。

China’s grain harvest has risen every year for more than a decade, as high prices have encouraged farmers to grow strategic crops. But costs have remained high and the agricultural sector is uncompetitive compared with other countries.

由於高價格鼓勵了戰略性作物的種植，10多年來中國穀物收成年年增長。然而，中國的農作物種植成本居高不下，農業部門的競爭力弱於其他國家。

“Since last year we haven’t raised the minimum price [for wheat and rice]. That sends a signal to the farmers,” said Chen Xiwen, director of the office of the central rural work leading group, at a press conference to explain rural policies for the year.

在解釋今年農村政策的記者會上，中央農村工作領導小組辦公室主任陳錫文表示，中國政府自去年以來沒有提高小麥和稻穀的最低收購價，此舉向農民發出了信號。

By capping the state-set minimum purchase price as costs rise, the government hoped to bring it into line with market prices, Mr Chen said. But the steep drop in oil prices meant growers should still have comfortable margins this year, he added. “We just want it to stabilise — that’s all.”

陳錫文表示，通過在成本攀升的同時封頂政府設定的最低收購價，中國政府希望讓收購價靠攏市場價格。不過，他補充說，油價的暴跌意味着今年農民們仍可達到較高的利潤率。“我們只是希望價格穩定下來——這就是我們的目的。”