信託產品集中到期 中國金融系統面臨考驗

China's financial system is about to be tested with $420 billion-worth of trust products coming due this year as worries grow that many debt-laden companies don't have the cash to pay back investors.

隨着規模達4,200億美元的信託產品在今年到期，中國的金融系統將面臨考驗。當前市場越來越擔心，很多負債累累的公司沒有現金來償還投資者。

May is the start of a peak period for maturing trust products, which lend money from investors to areas like the property sector or industries shunned by banks, such as coal. These trusts have been a fast-growing source of credit in China. Nomura estimates that the crunch will come in third quarter through September, when one trillion yuan ($160 billion) of trust products are due, up from 694 billion yuan in the first quarter.

今年5月份開始將迎來信託產品的到期高峯。據野村(Nomura)估計，到期高峯將出現在第三季度，屆時將有人民幣1萬億元（約合1,600億美元）信託產品到期，高於第一季度的人民幣6,940億元。信託產品將投資者的資金借給房地產行業以及像煤礦這類無法從銀行業獲得貸款的行業。信託業成了中國一個迅速增長的信貸來源。

Trusts have so far avoided major defaults, although in January one came close when it was unable to pay back creditors after lending to a struggling coal miner. It was bailed out at the last minute.

雖然1月份有一項信託產品因無法向債權人償債而瀕臨違約，但信託業到目前爲止尚未出現重大的違約。這項將資金借給一個處於困境的煤礦的信託產品在最後時刻獲得救助。

The interconnected nature of the financial system means any pain will be closely watched in case it spills over to the banking system and the broader economy, which is already struggling with a slowdown. China's gross domestic product growth in the first quarter was the slowest since mid-2012, at 7.4%.

由於金融系統相互聯繫，因此任何的風吹草動都會受到密切關注，以防其影響蔓延到銀行系統和整體經濟。中國經濟目前已經放緩，第一季度國內生產總值(GDP)同比增長7.4%，爲2012年年中以來的最慢增速。

Defaults are a concern as investors may shun new offerings from trust companies even if high returns are offered, while it may be difficult to roll over existing products.

違約是一個令人擔心的問題，因爲就算回報率很高，投資者們可能也會避開信託公司的新發產品，同時滾轉現有產品可能也會面臨困難。

'A lot of these trusts will come to grief at the end of the day,' said Templeton Emerging Markets Group's executive chairman Mark Mobius, who manages more than $47 billion-worth of emerging market stocks at Franklin Templeton Investments. 'We've got to figure how many of these trusts will go under. Nobody really knows how bad these trust products are, and what they will depend on to roll them over, if they need to be rolled over.'

鄧普頓新興市場集團(Templeton Emerging Markets Group)執行董事長麥思(Mark Mobius)說，許多信託公司最後都會陷入困境。他說：“我們必須估算出有多少信託公司將破產，沒有人知道這些信託產品有多糟糕，也沒有人知道他們將如何滾轉現有產品。鄧普頓新興市場集團通過富蘭克林鄧普頓投資(Franklin Templeton Investments)管理着超過470億美元新興市場股票。

There has been explosive growth in the trust industry in recent years, with the amount of outstanding trust assets under management at 11.7 trillion yuan at the end of March, according to China Trustee Association, a government backed industry group. That is more than quadruple the amount from four years ago.

近些年來中國信託行業呈現出爆炸式增長。由政府支持的行業組織中國信託業協會(China Trustee Association)的數據顯示，截至3月底，信託資產餘額大約爲人民幣11.7萬億元，比四年前增加了三倍多。

The boom for trusts coincides with a hefty buildup in Chinese debt at the corporate and local government level. Standard & Poor's puts the country's overall debt at 213% of gross domestic product in 2013, up from 140% in 2007.

信託業的繁榮正值中國企業、地方政府債臺高築之際。標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)稱，2013年中國整體負債水平佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比例達213%，2007年爲140%。

The trust companies operate as conduits, raising money to invest in assets ranging from bonds and stocks to aged wine and diamonds, or to making loans. Trusts raise about a quarter of their funds from wealthy individuals and companies. The rest comes from banks, which raise funds by selling wealth management products to individual savers.

信託公司充當橋樑的角色，將籌集到的資金投資到債券、股票、陳年老酒以及鑽石等資產，或者直接向外放貸。信託公司從富有個人以及公司籌得約四分之一的資金，其餘則來自銀行。銀行業通過向個人儲戶銷售理財產品來獲得資金。

In both cases, the trust company doesn't take on the risk itself. But if investments go south, the trusts might be prevailed upon to cover any losses from their own wafer thin capital buffers.

在上述兩種融資方式中，信託公司本身都不用承擔風險。但是若投資出現虧損，信託公司可能會被迫利用自身規模不大的資金緩衝來彌補損失。

The trust sector has faced the prospect of borrowers not being able to repay their loans before. In mid-2012, trusts were facing a wave of maturing loans to property developers that they were banned from rolling over. Back then, China's four asset management corporations--or bad banks--and homegrown private equity investors stepped in as lenders of last resort, keeping the developers afloat and bailing out the trusts.

信託行業此前已經出現過借貸人無法償還貸款的可能性。在2012年年中，信託行業曾出現過一次房地產開發商貸款到期但不能展期的情況。當時，中國四大資產管理公司（即壞賬銀行）以及中國私募股權投資者“挺身而出”，成爲最終放貸人，使得這些開發商得以倖免於難，同時也拯救了信託公司。

The bad banks haven't given up on the trust sector, but they can't be relied upon to provide the same safety net as last time. A large part of the trust industry's business involves extending loans on behalf of the lender in a way that it doesn't appear on the balance sheet. This opacity has led to uncertainty over the extent of the banking system's exposure to trust products, which in turn has contributed to China's banks trading at historically low valuations.

壞賬銀行還沒有將信託行業棄之不顧，但是信託業不能依賴這些銀行能夠像2012年時一樣提供同樣的安全網。信託業的主要業務包括代表銀行放出貸款，這些貸款不會反映在資產負債表上。這種不透明性令銀行系統的信託產品敞口規模存在不確定性，而這一情況也反過來拖累銀行股的估值跌至歷史低點。

China's largest banks, known collectively as the Big Four, are trading at price to book valuations near historic lows. Stocks prices have suffered too, with these big banks all down this year. Agricultural Bank of China shares have lost the most of the four banks in 2014, down 15.5% year-to-date, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's are second-worst off, down 11.6%.

中國四大國有商業銀行的市淨率（即股價與每股帳面價值的比）目前都接近歷史低點。這些銀行的股價也受到拖累，今年以來均累計下跌。在四大銀行中，中國農業銀行股份有限公司 (Agricultural Bank Of China Ltd., 簡稱：農業銀行 )股價今年迄今爲止的跌幅最大，累計下跌15.5%。中國工商銀行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 簡稱：工商銀行)表現第二差，其股價累計下跌11.6%。

'We don't think there will be systematic collapse in China and valuations are very attractive when you look at the financials,' said Medha Samant, investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, which managed assets worth $270 billion as of Dec. 31.

富達國際投資(Fidelity Worldwide Investment)的投資總監薩曼特(Medha Samant)說，不認爲中國會出現系統性崩潰，中國金融股的估值非常具吸引力。截至去年12月31日，富達國際投資管理的資產規模達2,700億美元。

'But at the same time, we are aware of the vested interests, and the government has to find a very fine balance between who to bail out and who not to bail out,' said Ms. Samant, adding that Fidelity is underweight on Chinese financials.

薩曼特說：但同時，我們知道存在既得利益者，政府需要在救誰和不救誰之間找到一個非常好的平衡。她還說，富達國際投資減持中國金融股。

Another concern is the complexity of the debt. While many trust products take money from a single source, such as a bank, and give to a single borrower, some involve multiple investors in a number of asset classes. This could make resolving a default much more complicated.

另一個令人擔憂的問題是信託貸款的複雜性。儘管許多信託產品是從單一來源（比如銀行）獲得資金，然後將資金借給一個單一借款者，但一些信託產品牽涉數個資產類別的多個投資者。這可能會令解決違約問題變得更加複雜。

Investors say that weaning the country from debt could be a painful process.

投資者說，使中國擺脫對貸款的依賴可能會是一個痛苦的過程。

'I do think that China needs a good bout of creative destruction to raise its economic efficiency,' said Petr Kocourek, senior portfolio manager in Singapore at First State Investments, which managed assets worth $157 billion as of March 31. 'But creative destruction by definition means that companies will have to go broke, there will be bankruptcies, there will be failure, and there will be problems.'

首域投資（香港）有限公司(First State Investments)駐新加坡的資深投資組合經理科曹雷克(Petr Kocourek)說，他確實認爲中國需要好好進行一場創造性破壞，來提高經濟的效率，但創造性破壞意味着將會有企業破產，還將出現各種問題。截至3月31日，首域投資管理的資產規模爲1,570億美元。