若中國經濟真的硬着陸 世界怎麼應對
Over the last two weeks, several major investment houses have published reports exploring the idea of a hard economic landing in China. They include 'We don't expect it to happen' caveats.
過去兩週，幾家大型投資機構陸續發佈報告，對中國經濟硬着陸的假設進行了探究。報告附加了“我們並不期望此事發生”的說明。But what if it did happen? Would the rest of the world tank as well?
但如果中國經濟真的出現硬着陸了呢？全球其他地方是否會隨之一同跌落？A catalyst for this concern has been the end of America's easy-money policies, which buoyed emerging-market economies. The gradual end of the Fed credit flood has sparked concerns that developing countries with high fiscal and trade deficits, excess credit growth, currency risks and other problems could face a liquidity crisis, leading to a broad loss of confidence.
引發對中國經濟硬着陸擔憂的一個因素是美國退出寬鬆貨幣政策。該政策對新興市場經濟體構成支撐，但隨着美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱：美聯儲)逐步退出寬鬆貨幣政策，人們開始擔心那些存在高財政赤字、高貿易逆差、信貸增長過快、貨幣風險等問題的發展中國家將面臨流動性風險，進而導致市場信心大範圍受挫。
Among the countries investors worry most about are those hit by political uncertainty, such as Venezuela, Argentina and Turkey. Also on the radar are economies with structural concerns including India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.
在這些發展中國家中，投資者最爲擔心的是像委內瑞拉、阿根廷、土耳其這類受政治不穩定因素干擾的國家，以及像印度、巴西、印尼和南非這樣存在結構性問題的經濟體。China is different, as its leaders are fond of pointing out. It's got huge foreign currency reserves, still-strong economic growth -- GDP slowed slightly to 7.7% on-year in the fourth quarter, from 7.8% in the third -- and it posted 10.6% on-year export growth in January.
正如中國領導人所樂於指出的那樣，中國與上述國家情況不同。中國擁有鉅額外匯儲備，經濟增長依舊強勁（去年第四季度中國的國內生產總值(GDP)同比增長7.7%，較三季度的7.8%略有放緩），且1月份中國出口額同比增長了10.6%。But that hasn't stopped some investors from seeing the worst, given the Asian giant's extensive links with other emerging markets, credit and debt concerns and the possibility of some internal crisis.
但考慮到中國與其他新興市場有關廣泛的聯繫，而且該國信貸和債務情況也令人擔憂，再加上中國存在爆發內部危機的可能性，一些投資者還是難免要預測一下最糟糕的情況。'Given that China is the largest emerging economy in the world and has contributed more than 25% to global GDP growth since 2010, a sharp slowdown or deleveraging in China will likely affect everyone and every market,' UBS said in its 'How Might a China Hard Landing Affect the World' report.
瑞士銀行(UBS AG, UBS)在其報告《中國經濟硬着陸或將如何影響世界》(How Might a China Hard Landing Affect the World)中稱：鑑於中國是全球最大的新興經濟體，且自2010年以來對全球GDP增長的貢獻率超過25%，中國經濟增速的大幅下滑或大幅去槓桿化將對所有人和所有市場產生影響。Societe Generale, in its 'What if China Lands Hard' report, predicts that in a worst-case scenario non-performing loan rates could hit 19%, interest-rate spreads could reach 800 basis points, gold prices could rise and then tank, and earnings at manufacturing companies could drop 50%. Keep that hard hat handy, Chicken Little.
法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)在其報告《若中國經濟硬着陸》(What if China Lands Hard)中預測，最差的情況是不良貸款率飆升至19%、利率差擴大至800個基點、金價先漲後跌、製造企業的利潤下降50%。若情況真如此駭人，可得做好隨時應對的準備。Drawing on a poll of investors across Asia, Societe Generale outlined several triggers in China it believes could set off a loss of confidence. These include the seizing-up of credit markets, a bank run or a default -- whether the failure of a corporate bond, a 'wealth management product' issued to investors or one of the lightly regulated trust companies that populate China's 'shadow banking' system.
法國興業銀行根據對亞洲各地投資者進行的調查，列出了其認爲在中國會引發市場信心喪失的幾大因素。其中包括信貸市場失靈、銀行遭擠兌或違約。這既包括企業債券、向投資者發行的 “財富管理產品”違約，也包括那些大量存在於中國“影子銀行”系統中，且極少受到監管的信託公司出現的違約。Another perceived risk is a policy misstep by regulators trying to tighten liquidity, address hadow banking problems or restrict local-government borrowing, which could set off the very crisis the government is trying to prevent.
還有一個可預見的風險是，監管部門在試圖收緊流動性、解決影子銀行問題或限制地方政府借貸時出現政策失誤，這可能會引發恰恰是政府力圖避免的危機。On Wednesday, in its own report on China's slowdown, ING warned investors to be prepared for a crisis or two in emerging markets as countries that banked on breakneck Chinese growth confront a new reality.
荷蘭國際集團(ING)在週三發佈的一份關於中國經濟增速放緩的報告中警告稱，投資者需要對新興市場可能出現的一兩場經濟危機作好準備，因爲依賴中國經濟高速增長的國家都面臨這一個新的現實。'Some of the erstwhile winners may find adjustment difficult,' ING economist Tim Condon wrote -- though he said Asian economies don't appear particularly vulnerable as U.S. monetary policy remains accommodative.
荷蘭國際集團的經濟學家康登(Tim Condon)稱，部分昔日的贏家可能會發現難以做出調整，不過他表示，似乎亞洲經濟體並不是特別的脆弱，因爲美國貨幣政策保持寬鬆。UBS sees three areas where a hard landing in China could affect the rest of the world. The biggest and most obvious is through the nation's trade ties. Not surprisingly, major commodity exporters and China's neighbors are most vulnerable on this count, especially Mongolia, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, Japan and Southeast Asia.
瑞銀預計中國經濟硬着陸對全球其他地區的影響將體現在三個領域。影響最大也是最明顯的將是通過該國貿易紐帶所產生的影響。並不令人驚訝的是，主要大宗商品出口國以及中國周邊國家和地區最容易在這方面受到衝擊，尤其是蒙古國、臺灣、澳大利亞、韓國、日本及東南亞地區。A Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of fund managers found the biggest perceived risk to international markets was a hard landing in China that triggers a collapse in commodities prices. The proportion of fund managers fingering China as a risk rose to 46% in February, up from 37% in January and 26% in December.
美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)對基金經理進行的一項調查發現，國際市場能預料到的最大風險是中國經濟硬着陸引發大宗商品價格暴跌。2月份將中國經濟前景作爲一個風險因素的基金經理佔比升至46%，高於1月份的37%和去年12月份的26%。Financial links are a second area of potential vulnerability. These are much less extensive than China's trade links, UBS believes, in large part because Beijing still tightly controls capital flows.
第二個潛在威脅是中國經濟硬着陸可能通過金融紐帶影響其他地區。但瑞銀認爲，中國與全球其他地區的金融聯繫並不像該國的貿易紐帶那樣廣泛，這主要是因爲中國政府仍然嚴格控制資本流動。According to the Bank for International Settlements, foreign banks are exposed to Chinese entities to the tune of $700 billion in foreign currency, less than 5% of Chinese banks' domestic credit and around 18% of China's official foreign reserves. That said, some economies are more exposed: Hong Kong and Singapore have the most to lose.
根據國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數據，海外銀行鍼對中國實體面臨的外匯風險敞口共計7,000億美元，不到中國銀行業國內信貸總量的5%，大約相當於中國官方外匯儲備的18%。不過，部分經濟體可能更明顯地暴露在中國經濟硬着陸可能帶來的風險中：香港和新加坡損失可能最爲慘重。The third way that a hard landing in China would affect the world is through market contagion, when a loss of confidence spreads with unforeseen consequences. The Asian financial crisis in 1997, sparked by seemingly inconsequential devaluations in Thailand and the Philippines, drew in economies with supposedly sound fundamentals, including Singapore and Hong Kong.
中國經濟硬着陸將對全球產生影響的第三個方式是通過風險蔓延，即信心喪失的現象伴隨着難以預料的後果蔓延。1997年爆發的亞洲金融危機就是由泰國和菲律賓表面上看起來無關緊要的貨幣貶值引發的，之後波及到新加坡和香港等原本基本面良好的經濟體。If nothing else, the recent concern underscores how important China has become as an economic engine and an emerging market extraordinaire, where even the hint of a problem is enough to jangle global nerves.
近期的市場憂慮至少凸顯了中國作爲一個經濟引擎和強大的新興市場國家，其地位已經變得多麼重要，甚至中國經濟可能出現問題的細微跡象就足以刺激全球神經。'You often hear people say emerging markets are a worry,' UBS economist Tao Wang said. 'They could be bearish on China and bullish somewhere else. If you're really bearish on China, though, I'm not sure you can be bullish on anywhere else.'
瑞銀經濟學家汪濤說，經常可以聽到人們說新興市場令人擔憂，他們可能不看好中國經濟前景，但看好其他地區；但如果你真的不看好中國，我不確定你是否真的還能看好其他地區。
