蘋果產品研發鏈空期近一年, 外部壓力倍增大綱

Here's what Apple told investors about its business Tuesday: Margins, revenues, and profits in the next quarter all will be worse than investors had expected. Here's what Apple didn't address Wednesday: Specific plans for any new product categories or personnel moves, either among its long-serving management team or to fill at least one long-vacant hole. The stock rallied in after-hours trading.
本週二，蘋果（Apple）這樣告訴投資者：下個季度的利潤率、收入和淨利潤都會低於投資者此前的預期。蘋果沒有談到的是：沒有任何關於新的產品品類或人事變動的具體計劃，既沒有對長期服務的管理團隊進行調整，也沒有填補什麼長期空缺職位。隨後，蘋果股價在盤後交易中反彈。

Oh yeah, one more thing: Apple (AAPL) said it will dramatically increase its dividend, its share buybacks, and, for the first time, that it will borrow significant amounts of money to fuel this return of capital to shareholders. Apple actually bragged on its earnings call with investors that it will be one of the biggest payers of dividends in the world. Think: Insanely great … dividends·
哦，對了，還有一件事：蘋果宣佈將大幅增加派息和股票回購，還將首次借入相當的資金來提高股東的資本回報率。事實上，蘋果在這次面向投資者的業績電話會議上甚至誇口，蘋果將成爲全球派息最高的公司之一。想想：超高……派息？

There's more. Tim Cook, the man with the most unenviable task in the history of business, that of following Steve Jobs, said Apple planned to release "great" new products in the "fall and throughout 2014," and, eventually, new categories. The fall· If true, meaning that if Apple's big meeting with developers in June is a ho-hum event from a new-product perspective, then Apple will have gone a year without new product introductions.
還有，從史蒂夫·喬布斯手中接過蘋果公司CEO一職、怎麼幹都吃力不討好的蒂姆·庫克還宣佈，蘋果計劃在“今秋和2014年”推出“非常出色”的新產品，並最終推出新的產品品類。今年秋天？如果是這樣，那麼6月份的蘋果開發人員大會從新產品角度而言將毫無亮點，蘋果將經歷沒有新產品推出的一年。

New products at Apple is the only thing that matters. Margins are eroding because new products cannibalize older products. The success of the iPad Mini is a financial penalty for Apple: It's a less profitable product than its bigger cousin. But that is beside the point. Apple said a significant number of iPad Mini buyers are first-time iPad buyers, and this is what is important, adding new Apple customers to its lists of people to market the next great products -- whatever their configuration. Remember, Apple has done this before. iPod Shuffle customers spent less than they did on iPods. They also had to have an iPhone when it came out.
新產品對於蘋果是唯一真正重要的東西。利潤率也在下降，因爲新產品侵佔了老產品的市場和消費者。iPad Mini的成功對於蘋果的財務是一項災難：iPad Mini的利潤率低於比它大一號的iPad。但這只是一方面。蘋果稱，相當一部分的iPad Mini買家是首次購入iPad產品，這很重要，因爲它爲蘋果帶來了新客戶，所有現有客戶都會是下一款傑出產品的目標客戶——不管新產品是啥樣。記得嗎，蘋果早就這麼幹過，當初iPod Shuffle用戶就比iPod用戶的花費要低。但iPhone出現後，他們都得要一臺。

In some ways, Apple sounds delusional when it talks about itself. Asked, as he has been many times before, for his take on the trend to pack bigger screens into smartphones, Tim Cook said he thinks Apple's iPhone 5 has the best screen in existence and that big screens aren't for everyone. He'll keep saying that until Apple offers a phone with a bigger screen. And we'll see how that sounds when we witness customer reactions to the new Samsung Galaxy S4, a product whose media blitz has just begun.
在某種程度上，蘋果說起自己的時候有些妄自尊大。問起他對智能手機屏幕越來越大這個趨勢怎麼看時（這個問題他顯然已經被問到過很多次了），蒂姆·庫克表示，他認爲蘋果iPhone 5的顯示屏是現有產品中最好的，大屏幕並不適合所有人。估計在蘋果能夠提供一款大屏手機之前，他會一直這麼說。我們會關注隨着消費者對三星（Samsung）新款Galaxy S4手機的反應變化，他的言辭有何變化。圍繞Galaxy S4手機的諸多報道纔剛剛見諸媒體。

In other ways, Apple shows that it is very much in tune with reality. Cook knows keeping $145 billion lying around is too much. So he'll give more back to shareholders. He knows that with interest rates as low as they are it makes no sense for a company with Apple's balance sheet not to borrow money and share the benefits with shareholders. So he's taking on debt -- Steve Jobs's aversion to the stuff be damned.
其他方面，蘋果的自我表述與現實相當吻合。庫克知道持有1,450億美元現金實在是太多了。因此，他打算增加對股東的回饋。他知道，在當前利率這麼低的情況下，像蘋果這樣優質的資產負債表，不貸款，不把利潤與股東分享，是沒有意義的。因此，他準備舉債——這可是史蒂夫·喬布斯最不願做的事了。

The world stops and listens when Apple talks. The problem is that Apple doesn't always have something to say, and Tuesday was one of those days. It would be foolish to assume Apple isn't ever going to have anything to say again. But the pressure certainly is building.
一旦蘋果開口，世界都會停下來傾聽。問題是蘋果不是總有東西可以講，週二就是這樣。當然，不能假定蘋果將來也不會有什麼可講。改變的壓力顯然正在不斷加大。