信用評級的力量

The political infighting in Washington took on global importance Thursday when the ratings agency Standard & Poor's released a report saying it would downgrade the world's largest economy's credit rating if a deal to raise its debt ceiling is not agreed on soon.
在華盛頓酣戰正歡的美國國會今日將國內的債務問題引申成爲了國際問題，因爲標準普爾近日宣佈如果美國不能在債務問題上達成共識並且提高債務封頂，那麼標準普爾將會降低美國這個全球最大經濟體的債券信用評級。

This comes after similar warnings from Moody's and Finch -- who, along with S&P, are known as the "Big Three" global credit ratings agencies.
這個來自標準普爾的警告和穆迪以及芬奇——另外兩大信用評級公司的警告一模一樣。

Meanwhile, European Union markets reeled this week after Moody's recent credit downgrades of Ireland, Greece and Portugal -- heightening fears that the EU debt crisis will hit the larger economies of Italy and Spain.
與此同時，歐盟今日也疾呼穆迪對於愛爾蘭、希臘和葡萄牙的信用評級降級將會直接導致這幾個國家的經濟危機波及到更大的經濟體，如意大利和西班牙。

Government officials on both sides of the Atlantic have railed against the agencies. So how did the global economy become so dependent on the opinions of three companies?
Who are the credit rating agencies?
大西洋兩邊的政府最近都對於這些信用評級機構猛烈抨擊。那麼現在問題來了，到底是什麼原因讓這些經濟體如此依賴於這些信用評級公司的呢？這些信用評級公司到底是什麼呢？

The "big three" are Standard's & Poor's, Moody's Investor Services and Fitch Ratings. All originated in the United States, although Fitch has dual headquarters in New York and London.
這三大信用評級公司主要包括標準普爾，穆迪投資和芬奇評級。所有的這些公司都起源於美國，雖然芬奇在紐約和倫敦都有總部。

What do they do?他們平時幹什麼？

Before you can get a credit card, banks run a credit check on you. Similarly, the ratings agencies run credit checks on companies, countries and financial products.
就好比在你獲得一張信用卡的時候銀行會審查你的信用一樣。這些評級機構對於公司和政府以及金融產品的信用進行評級。

Countries are rated on a sliding scale: the U.S., for example, has a top rating (AAA) which allows it to borrow cash at cheap interest rates. The lower the rating grade, however, the higher interest payments a nation must pay to attract investors to buy its bonds. Anything that slips to junk status -- as Ireland, Portugal and Greek government bonds are rated -- is considered a "highly speculative" investment. Furthermore, the pool of eligible investors is reduced -- many institutional investors, such as government pension funds, are forbidden to invest in junk-rated bonds.
對於國家的信用評級是浮動的：比如說美國，最高能夠擁有3A級的信用評級，這就意味着它可以獲得很低的借款利率。但是借款利率越低，這些國家就要付出越高的利息來吸引投資者投資這些國家的債券。任何類似於愛爾蘭、希臘和葡萄牙的惡劣狀況都會被認爲是高度泡沫化的投資。而且，可用的投資來源也會進一步減少，這些投資來源可能包括機構投資者，類似於政府基金，這類投資源都不準向垃圾債券投資。

Why do they wield such power?爲什麼他們掌有這樣的權利？

Investors across the world look to credit rating agencies to judge where to place their bets in the market. For governments, the ratings agencies have a lot of power over the popularity of bonds: cash given to governments by investors that, over time, will pay a return on the original investment -- unless the government defaults. The downgrade of Ireland this week signaled Moody's belief that Ireland has a higher likelihood to default on investments. And global investors have little appetite to invest in those bonds.
投資人通過了解評級機構給出的評級來決定把自己的投資投向什麼市場。對於政府而言，這些評級機構的報告會對其債券的受歡迎程度有很大的影響：投資者認爲，這些投資給政府的現金會從長期帶給投資者利潤，除非政府逾期不還。這周穆迪對於愛爾蘭的信用評級降級的意思就是穆迪認爲愛爾蘭很有可能會逾期無法償還投資。全球的投資者都對於這種逾期不還的債券毫無興趣。

What does a debt rating downgrade mean?信用降級意味着什麼？

The decisions of the "Big Three" catalyze market moves in often unpredictable ways, creating a strong ripple effect. In the wake of the Greece downgrade last year, for example, investors across the globe started rethinking investment in other governments' bonds and began selling off more risky investments -- throwing the EU into crisis and depressing the value of the euro. There was a similar psychological ripple through the markets this week after Moody's recent downgrades of Ireland and Portugal -- it put the spurs to Italian lawmakers to pass deep cuts in government spending on Thursday and turning up the heat on Washington lawmakers to extend the debt ceiling.
這三大公司的決定往往會催化市場產生一些難以預料的波動，產生很大的漣漪效應。去年，在希臘主權債務危機餘波未平的時候，全球的投資者們就開始重新思考把自己的投資轉向其他的政府並且大量賣出希臘這些具有風險的債券，這直接導致整個歐洲都被主權債務危機影響到，進而使得歐元貶值。同樣的效果也產生在了近日的信用降級上，這些心裏效應導致穆迪發出降級報告以後意大利立即通過了降低政府開支的法案，導致週四華府要求立法者提高赤字的上限。