美國人爲什麼用土撥鼠來預測天氣?大綱

Every Feb 2, a doughy rodent named Punxsutawney Phil briefly emerges from his winter hibernation to have a look around.

每年2月2日，一隻名叫龐克瑟託尼·菲爾的軟乎乎的齧齒動物都會從冬眠的洞裏探出頭來四下看一看。

If he sees his shadow, that means there will be six more weeks of winter.

如果它看到了自己的影子，那就意味着冬天還要持續6周。

If he doesn't, we can assume that warm weather is looming.

如果它沒看到自己的影子，我們就可以假定溫暖的天氣即將來臨。

The ritual has been carried out in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania in the US every year since 1887.

自1887年以來，這項儀式每年都要在美國賓夕法尼亞州的龐克瑟託尼舉行。

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Relying on Phil is actually not much better than flipping a coin - he's right an estimated 64.4% of the time - but clearly someone at one time believed a groundhog had predictive abilities. Who? And why?

事實上，靠菲爾來預測天氣的成功率不比拋硬幣高多少--這隻土撥鼠預測天氣的準確率約爲64.4%--但顯然有人曾一度認爲土撥鼠有預測天氣的能力。是誰呢？爲什麼這麼認爲？

In 1887, a newspaper editor began circulating the idea that one groundhog in particular, Punxsutawney Phil, was a meteorological wonder.

1887年，一位報社編輯開始傳播一個信息：有一隻名叫龐克瑟託尼·菲爾的土撥鼠很特別，是預測天氣的奇才。

Before long, the entire country became preoccupied with Phil's prognosticating, and an annual tradition was born.

沒過多久，整個國家都被菲爾的預測迷住了，一項年度傳統就此誕生。