時尚雙語:如何贏在情場，勝在賭場？
THERE was a time when economics was widely seen as a graph-strewn study of exchange rates, gross domestic product and the like. Tim Harford's 2005 bestseller, “The Undercover Economist”, was a book that has helped shift that perception by bringing the not-so-dismal science to a wider audience.
Mr Harford's second book, “The Logic of Life”, stakes out similar ground. Once again he eschews chalkboard economics in favour of a reader-friendly guide to the economics of everyday life. The result is a fascinating study of how society is shaped by hidden pay-offs and punishments. Compulsive gambling or inflated boardroom pay might seem like madness, but look closer, says Mr Harford, and you find a kind of logic.
The author sees rational calculation everywhere—even, or perhaps especially, in matters of love. Romantic types might say they seek the perfect soulmate but the revealed truth is more prosaic. Marriages are market-based transactions, swayed by supply (what is available) as much as demand (what the heart desires). Men may prefer slim women and women favour tall men, but both will alter their demands in response to market conditions. Suitors settle for what is on offer now, even if plumper or shorter than the ideal, rather than hold out for the perfect partner.
The book surveys shelf after shelf of the economics literature but in such skilful hands it does not feel like a dutiful trip to the library. Economists are often too beguiled by elegant theories, but Mr Harford wisely confines himself to ideas that have been carefully tested against real life. Only thorough research could discern that residents of high-rise buildings are more likely to be victims of crime, because stacked tenants make for poor monitors of the surrounding streets. Even the excellent chapter on game theory has a practical hero: the card player, Chris “Jesus” Ferguson, who applied its lessons to win the poker world championship in 2000.
Mr Harford, who works at theFinancial Times, is an amiable guide for the non-specialist reader, neither too lofty nor dumbed-down. The book's tone is breezy, but his command of the subject is such that even a well-schooled economist will discover much that is new. It is not a wonkish tome, but its broad policy prescriptions are clear enough. Since behaviour is governed by incentives, the way to achieve different outcomes is to alter the pay-offs carefully.
One of the merits of “The Logic of Life” is its variety. Subjects range from the terrifying logic of “rational racism” to a cold calculus of divorce rates. If you want to know which poker hands to bluff with, why neighbourhoods with permanent residents have more road crossings or why digital communication makes the world spikier not flatter, Mr Harford's book provides some answers. And it does it all without an exchange-rate graph in sight.
經濟學曾被普遍認爲是對諸如匯率，國內生產總值等方面的一種圖表研究。2005年，在暢銷書籍《祕密經濟學家》中，作者蒂姆"哈福德(Tim Harford)描述的不甚枯燥乏味的科學知識已開始在轉變廣大讀者的此類看法。
哈福德先生的第二本著作《生活的邏輯》也同樣在嘗試改變讀者對經濟學的看法。在這本書中，作者秉承了前書的風格，繞開了生硬的說教，用讀者喜聞樂見的方式介紹了日常生活中的經濟學。作者在社會如何被隱性支付和刑罰塑造成型上取得的研究碩果。讀者對本書也是興趣盎然。在書中，哈福德先生認爲，強迫性賭博或飛漲的董事會薪酬雖看似荒誕不經，但細究之下，讀者將會從中得出其內在的邏輯。
作者認爲理性的考慮是無處不在，甚至適用於情場，或許僅適用於情場。浪漫型的人士可能聲稱自己在尋覓完美無暇的紅顏知己，然而，呈現的真相卻十分平淡無奇。婚姻是基於市場的交易，但受供（現實中所有）求（內心中所需）兩個因素的影響。男士可能更青睞身量苗條的女士，女士可能更仰慕身材頎長的男士，但雙方會根據市場狀況變更要求。求婚者可勉強地接受近在眼前的對象而不願執着地追求完美伴侶，即使對方是身形豐腴或體格矮小，並遠非理想。
本書參閱大量經濟學文獻，但作者嫺熟的運用能力卻使讀者並不感到本書參考過大量書籍。經濟學家往往過於沉迷優雅的理論，但哈福德先生卻明智地只專注於現實生活精心考驗的看法。只有通過研究可得出，高樓大廈中的居民更有可能成爲犯罪活動的受害者，因爲高處的住戶更易成爲周邊街道窮困監視者攻擊的對象。即使是介紹博弈論的優秀篇章也會引用現實中的英雄做爲例證：玩牌人Chris “Jesus” Ferguson曾運用此理論在2000年世界撲克錦標賽中勝出。
任職於《金融時報》的哈福德先生是非專業讀者的親和嚮導，既不過於高傲，也不愚笨。本書基調輕快活潑，作者對主題的把握是如此嫺熟以至那些受過良好教育的經濟學家也會發現書中大多內容比較新穎。本書並非一部不可靠的大型書卷，但書中概括的政策處方已足夠清晰。行爲受激勵控制，因此，達到不同目的的途徑就在於對支付的審慎取捨。
《生活的邏輯》的價值之一就在於書中題材的多樣性。題材範圍涉及到"理性的種族主義"這一可怕邏輯和關於離婚率的冷冰冰數字。哪位牌手在虛張聲勢，爲何長住居民區有較多的道路交叉點，或者爲何數字通信令世界變得更爲複雜多變而不是順利前進，如果讀者對此感到好奇，不妨參閱本書。哈福德先生在書中提供了部分解答。在書中，匯率圖表難覓影蹤,卻解決了所有問題。
