關於NBA總決賽大膽預測 誰拿FMVP?勇士繼續掌控局面?

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers start an NBA Finals comeback at home? Who is the MVP favorite now?

克利夫蘭騎士隊會在自己的主場找回總決賽的感覺嗎？誰會是大家心目中的MVP人選？

Our NBA experts answer the big questions and make bold predictions after Game 2.

我們NBA的專家們回答了這兩個問題，並在總決賽第二場比賽之後大膽地做了預測。

1. Which is more true?

1. 哪個更對？

A. The Cavs can get back into the series.

A. 騎士會重新回到系列賽中。

B. The Warriors are in complete control.

B. 一切盡在勇士的掌控之中。

Jackie MacMullan, : I think both statements are true. The Golden State Warriors re-established their mojo in Game 2 by sharing the ball, which led to easy baskets, and being far more engaged on the defensive end of the floor. When they play like that — and Steph shoots 3s from the Oracle parking lot — Golden State simply does not lose. But don't forget the Cavs nearly stole Game 1.

我認爲這兩種觀點都是對的。在第二場比賽中，金州勇士通過傳導球來重新建立他們的進攻火力，這使得他們更容易地衝擊籃筐，然後更好地將精力投入到防守中去。當庫裏手都熱到可以從球館停車場扔進三分時，幾乎沒有隊伍可以輕易打敗金州勇士了。但是，別忘了騎士隊差一點就拿下了總決賽第一場的勝利。

Their role players will perform better at home. And there is still no evidence that Golden State has any idea how to stop LeBron. There is also one thing we know about the Warriors: They get careless. Happens every four games or so. They just can't seem to help it.

他們的角色球員在主場會表現得更好。並且，勇士隊似乎還沒有找到能夠限制勒布朗的辦法。對於勇士隊，我們也知道他們有時候太浪了。大約每四場比賽都會出現這樣的狀況。他們似乎對此也無能爲力。

Kevin Arnovitz, : A. Contrary to popular opinion, a series doesactually start before a team wins on the road, but two games in Cleveland where the Cavs have won eight straight gives them plenty of opportunity to scratch back. If nothing else, the first two games in Oakland exposed some vulnerabilities. The Warriors are simply not as deep or as disciplined as they've been in past years.

我選A，與主流的觀點相反，我覺得一輪系列賽真正始於一支球隊能在客場贏下比賽，但是接下來的兩場比賽，騎士可以有足夠的機會重新振作起來，因爲他們已經在季後賽豪取主場八連勝了。別的不說，在奧克蘭的前兩場比賽已經暴露一些缺點。勇士隊並不像過去那些年具有足夠的陣容深度以及戰術執行力了。

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: A. though Las Vegas gives bettors 15-1 odds for Cleveland to win the series, and the Cavs are 5-point underdogs for Game 3 at home. I do believe they can pick themselves up one more time to win at least one of the two upcoming games. But even if they tie up the series, the Warriors will be clear favorites to win it all.

我選A，儘管拉斯維加斯爲克利夫蘭贏得這次系列賽提供了15-1的賠率，而且回到主場的騎士，在第三戰中依然受讓5分。我還是認爲他們可以在接下來的兩場比賽中打出自己的氣勢拿下至少一場比賽的勝利。但是即便他們扳平了比分，勇士隊仍然是更被看好的那支球隊。

Dave McMenamin, : A. The Cavs are a whopping 19-for-64 from 3 so far in the series (29.7 percent). Is some of that because of the Warriors' closeouts? Sure. But that's the type of stat that will ascend toward the mean back in Cleveland. And can we really say Golden State is in complete control when LeBron is averaging 40 points on 55.8 percent shooting, 10.5 assists and 8.5 rebounds so far?

我選A. 在系列賽中，騎士隊64次的三分球出手僅有19球入賬，命中率只有29.7%。這是不是因爲勇士隊的擴張防守造成的？當然。但是回到克利夫蘭，這樣的數據將會成爲他們的平均水平。我們真的可以認爲到目前爲止，當勒布朗以55.8%的命中率拿下場均40分，10.5個助攻以及8.5個籃板的數據時，金州勇士還對比賽有着絕對的控制權嗎？

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: B, if forced to choose. We've seen (in Game 1) how Cleveland can be competitive, and the Cavaliers should derive some boost from returning home. I'm also cognizant of how we wondered in 2016 whether we'd be back in Oakland for a Game 5 (yes, and a Game 7) and the Warriors' tendency to coast. But overall, through two games this looks more like a mismatch than a series likely to turn.

如果一定要選擇的話，我會選擇B。（在第1場比賽中）我們已經看到克利夫蘭是如何具備競爭力的，騎士應該在回到主場之後增漲一些自己的士氣。我還能記起2016年我們是多想知道我們還會不會回到奧克蘭打第五場比賽（是的，還有第七場）以及勝利天平向勇士傾倒的趨勢。但是總的來說，通過兩場比賽來看，這更像是一輪實力並不相當的對決，而不是存在逆轉機會的系列賽。

2. If the Cavs lose, should LeBron be MVP if he's clearly the best player in the series?

2. 如果騎士輸了，而詹姆斯是該系類賽中表現最佳的球員，他應該拿到MVP嗎？

Arnovitz: Provided there isn't a Warriors performer who's within an arm's reach of LeBron, then sure. Apart from the appealing pageantry of Bill Russell presenting the trophy on a confetti-covered riser to a beaming star from the winning team wearing an NBA champs ballcap and T-shirt, there's really no good reason why the most productive player in the series shouldn't be rewarded accordingly.

如果勇士隊的隊員沒有人能夠比肩勒布朗的表現，那麼勒布朗就會成爲MVP。除了在頒獎儀式上比爾拉塞爾給戴着NBA總冠軍帽子穿着總冠軍T恤的獲勝隊伍中表現最好的那個球員頒獎之外，對於系列賽中效率最高的球員得不到相應的獎勵，我們也實在找不到什麼好的理由。

McMenamin: Yes, if only to see how the trophy presentation goes down. Maybe Jerry West can be invited to fill in for Bill Russell to hand over the hardware and give James a knowing pat on the back. But in all seriousness, we've seen two competitive basketball games (for the most part) because of one person showing his capabilities in all aspects of the sport to give his team a fighting chance.

是的，如果僅僅只是爲了見證整個頒獎儀式是如何進行的。也許傑裏韋斯特可以被邀請來代替比爾拉塞爾，讓他來授予獎盃讓詹姆斯獲得應有的榮譽。但是說實話，我們已經見證了兩場（絕大部分）極具競爭力的籃球賽，因爲有一個人正在努力展現着自己在這個運動項目上的全能型，並以此來幫助他的隊伍獲得一次又一次的競爭機會。

Pelton: Absolutely. I made this case in 2015, and I still believe it just as strongly. The idea that the MVP of a Finals/World Series/Super Bowl has to come from the winning team is a relatively recent convention and one we could stand to change.

毫無疑問。我在2015年的時候就表達了這樣的觀點，我現在依然堅信着。總決賽、世界職業棒球聯賽、超級碗的MVP人選必須來自於獲勝的隊伍，這是一直以來的慣例，有時我們需要做出改變。

Engelmann: If he clearly is the best player and Cleveland manages to win at least one game, then yes. As of right now, though, I don't think the gap between LeBron (averaging 40/10/8.5 with five turnovers per game) and Curry (31/8.5/6.5 with only 2.5 turnovers) is large enough.

如果他很明顯是那個最好的球員並且克利夫蘭嘗試着至少拿下一場比賽的勝利，那麼答案就是會。然而目前來看，我認爲勒布朗（場均40分10助攻8.5籃板5失誤）和庫裏（場均31分8.5助攻6.5籃板僅僅2.5失誤）的差距還沒有那麼大。

MacMullan: Yes — if LeBron is clearly the best player in the series. With a minimum of two more games to play, that remains to be seen. He is carrying a heavy load, particularly on the offensive end of the floor, but there were spurts in Game 2 in which he failed to hustle back defensively when Golden State was in transition.

我的答案是會——如果勒布朗很明顯就是這次系列賽中最好的球員。在接下來的至少兩場比賽中，這點可以輕而易舉地得到證實。他肩負着沉重的負擔，尤其是在進攻這方面，但是在第二場比賽中，當金州勇士打出轉換進攻時，他卻沒有及時地退防。

Was he saving energy or exhibiting a hint of the frustration of futility? Fair or not, when LeBron is passive, or tired, or perturbed, that vibe permeates his huddle. Likewise, when he's fully engaged and driving to the hole full throttle, he electrifies his guys. LeBron really should holler at Jerry West, the only Finals MVP of a losing team. Misery loves company.

他是爲了節省體力還是由於身體的疲憊？當勒布朗在場上消極被動、身體疲倦、煩躁不安，他的這種狀態也會滲透到隊友當中進而影響他們，不論這樣說對勒布朗是否公平，事實確實如此。同樣的，當他全身心投入到比賽中並全力以赴時，他也會帶動他的同伴。勒布朗真的應該向NBA唯一一位敗方FMVP傑裏韋斯特訴說一番，痛苦要有人分擔才行。

3. If LeBron's not the Finals MVP, who is?

3. 如果詹姆斯不是FMVP，那誰會是呢？

Pelton: Stephen Curry made a persuasive case in the second half of Game 2. I don't think he's got a decisive edge over Kevin Durant yet, and a wild-card candidate could yet emerge, but for now Curry is — in a cliche the golf nut would surely appreciate — the leader in the clubhouse.

斯蒂芬·庫裏在第二場比賽的下半場給出了具有說服力的答案。我不覺得他現在在FMVP競爭中比杜蘭特有多大優勢，而且殺出匹黑馬也說不定。不過，現在的庫裏，用他這個高爾夫大粉絲的話說，就是穩穩的頭號種子。

MacMullan: At this exact moment, I'm leaning toward the wispy, baby-faced (even with the beard!) kid who looks like he's having so much more fun than everyone else. Remember when people were actually concerned about Steph Curry's long-range shooting? Ha! Curry has hit big shots in big moments of these Finals, and his in-game swagger is a reminder to all that he may look like a high school AAU baller, but he's really a two-time MVP with an edge.

目前來看，我開始喜歡上這個看起來比其他人瘦小，長着娃娃臉（即使他留着鬍子！）的孩子了，看起來他和誰都能相處得很開心。還記得當初人們對斯蒂芬·庫裏遠程投射的擔憂嗎？哈！庫裏在總決賽的一些關鍵時刻命中了一些關鍵投籃，他在比賽中的表現告訴人們儘管他看起來像個AAU聯賽的高中球員，但事實上他確是兩屆常規賽MVP得主。

Arnovitz: Stephen Curry. Assuming he can turn in another couple of performances like the two he has already exhibited, it's his turn.

斯蒂芬·庫裏。假設他接下來還能再展現出像前兩場一樣精彩的表現的話，那麼fmvp獎盃將會是他的囊中之物。

McMenamin: Steph Curry. He led the Warriors in fourth-quarter scoring with eight points in Game 1 and doubled that with 16 in the fourth quarter in Game 2 (including 5-for-5 from 3). And his 31 points, 8.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds per game is certainly gaudy enough to stand up against most Finals MVPs in league history.

斯蒂芬·庫裏。在第一場比賽的第四節中庫裏拿下八分並在第二場比賽的第四節中翻倍豪取16分（其中包括了5投5中的3分球）帶領勇士拿下比賽。他場均31分，8.5助攻及6.5籃板這樣的華麗數據幫助他成爲聯盟歷史上強有力的總決賽最有價值球員競爭者。

Engelmann: In a world where defense is valued equally to offense, Draymond Green would have a shot. The number of plays he disrupts and the number of shots he contests is mind-boggling. His per-game averages of 9.5 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks with only one turnover also look great — if only he didn't average fewer than 10 PPG. Unfortunately for Draymond, points per game tends to be the most important stat when it comes to Finals MVP voting, so it's more likely that Curry or Durant will get the award.

在這個防守和進攻同等重要的世界裏，德雷蒙德·格林同樣有機會來爭奪fmvp。他干擾投籃的次數和他自己投籃的次數令人難以置信。他場均9.5個籃板，8.0個助攻，2.5個搶斷，1.5個封蓋以及僅僅1次失誤的數據看起來也不錯——只要他場均得分不少於10分。對於德拉蒙德來說，不幸的是，對於總決賽MVP來說，場均得分將會是最重要的一項評判標準，所以庫裏或是杜蘭特將會更有可能摘得此獎。

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