Lex專欄 馬化騰減持騰訊股票

Do not be fooled by the name: Tencent is neither a rapper nor a penny stock.

不要被名稱糊弄了：騰訊(Tencent)既不是饒舌歌手，也不是細價股。

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index — comprisingHong Kong blue-chips as well as leading China “red” chips — has rallied by more than one-tenth this month, and returned one-quarter since January. The Chinese mobile gaming and messaging platform Tencent is enjoying the ride. The company, which owns the messaging app WeChat, began the year with a market capitalisation of $120bn. On Monday it was briefly valued at more than $200bn, larger than HSBC.

香港恆生指數(Hang Seng index)——包括香港藍籌股和中國內地領先企業的紅籌股——本月已上漲逾10%，今年1月以來累計上漲25%。身爲中國手機網遊和短信平臺的騰訊的股價同大盤一起不斷上漲。年初時，旗下擁有即時信息app微信(WeChat)的騰訊市值爲1200億美元，本週一，騰訊市值短暫超過2000億美元，大於匯豐(HSBC)。

No surprise, then, that some people are taking profits. After market on Monday, the company revealed that its chairman and founder, Ma “Pony” Huateng, sold part of his holding last week, raising more than $400m. On Tuesday, sellers pushed the stock down as much as 8 per cent on big volumes as they followed him out. Mr Ma may not be the best lead to follow; last December he sold part of his holding at a price around one-fifth below current levels.

既然如此，有人獲利回吐是不足爲奇的。週一市場收盤後，該公司披露，其董事長和創始人馬化騰(Pony Ma)上週減持了自己的持股，回籠逾4億美元。週二，賣家爭先恐後追隨馬化騰離場，一度導致股價下跌8%，成交量極高。馬化騰也許不是值得效仿的天才操盤手，畢竟，去年12月他就拋出了自己持有的一部分公司股票，而那時的股價比目前水平低了五分之一。

But even for an investor who does not own nearly $20bn in Tencent stock, recent performance may seem overdone. The shares trade at 38 times forecast earnings (against 28 at the start of the year). But the company has plenty of potential. In the fourth quarter of last year, monthly active users on the messaging apps WeChat and Weixin reached 500m, 40 per cent higher than the previous year. More importantly, Tencent is finding new ways to make money from its users. Around 100m of them have linked their credit cards to Tencent’s payment services through Mobile QQ wallet and Weixin payment. Tie-ups with content providers such as the NBA and HBO offer opportunities for targeted advertising; revenue from this service, though still only one-eighth of the total, grew 75 per cent in the fourth quarter.

但是，即使是對不擁有近200億美元騰訊股票的投資者來說，近期的表現也似乎有些過火。該股目前的預期市盈率達到38倍（年初爲28倍）。但該公司大有潛力。去年第四季度，即時信息app微信的月活躍用戶達到5億，比上年高出40%。更重要的是，騰訊正找到新的方法從用戶那裏賺錢。大約1億用戶已通過手機QQ錢包和微信支付，將自己的信用卡與騰訊的支付服務綁定。與內容提供商如美國籃球職業聯賽(NBA)和美國家庭電影頻道(HBO)結盟，帶來了定向廣告的機遇：這項服務的營收儘管仍只有總額的八分之一，但在去年第四季度猛增75%。

Tencent is also trying to get users to pay for content. But in a country where content has often been free, this will not be easy. The enthusiasts behind the recent share price jump are betting that the shift to paid content is a “when” rather than an “if”.

騰訊還在試圖讓用戶爲內容付費。但在一個內容往往免費的國家，這不會容易。推動騰訊近期股價飆漲的投資者押注的是，轉向付費內容是“何時”而不是“如果”的問題。