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Just weeks after everyone seemed to agree that China's renminbi will depreciate this year, it's heading back up again.

就在所有人似乎都認定人民幣今年將會貶值的幾周後，人民幣匯率正再度回升。

The currency has jumped half a per cent today — its biggest move since March 24, 2014 — to 6.199, its best valuation against the dollar since January 16.

人民幣兌美元匯率週四上漲0.5個百分點，至1美元兌6.199元人民幣。這是自2014年5月24日以來的最高單日漲幅，讓人民幣匯率升至1月16日以來最高水平。

China's renminbi had its best day of 2015 on Wednesday, but policymakers appear to want to see the currency be worth even more.

人民幣匯率週三的表現爲2015年來最佳，但決策者似乎希望看到人民幣匯率上漲更多。

"The volatility in USDCNY is impressive and speaks to the new trading regime that Chinese policymakers have been successful in encouraging," said Sacha Tihanyi, currency strategist at Scotiabank.

豐業資本(Scotiabank)外匯策略師薩沙•泰漢伊(Sacha Tihanyi)表示：“人民幣兌美元匯率的波動令人印象深刻，也證明中國決策者一直鼓勵的新的交易機制是成功的。”

Beijing set the "fix" — the mid-rate the around which the currency is allowed to trade — at 6.146 today, its lowest in three weeks. A lower fix means a higher renminbi and today it was lowered 16 basis points, the biggest downward move since February 6.

中國央行週四將人民幣匯率中間價定在6.146美元，爲3周來最低。中間價下浮意味着人民幣匯率上漲。

The People's Bank of China has been guiding the currency towards a higher valuation since the renminbi hit a 28-month low at the end of February.

自人民幣匯率2月底觸及28個月低點以來，中國央行(PBoC)一直在引導匯率走高。

The depreciation earlier in the year made intuitive sense: as the economy slows down and its exports are hurt by the surging US dollar (which the renminbi is pegged to), a devaluation in the currency would help with easing efforts.

今年早些時候，由於中國經濟放緩，同時出口受到美元匯率飆升的衝擊，在北京出臺寬鬆政策之際，人民幣貶值將對經濟有所助益。

This was certainly the line of thinking common among analysts. As noted in the FT last week, a recent survey by Société Générale failed to find anyone who thought the renminbi would rise against the dollar in the coming 12 months, while 42 per cent of respondents believed the PBoC would "actively seek depreciation" of the currency in response to declines in the yen and the euro.

這也是分析人士此前的普遍看法。正如英國《金融時報》上週指出的那樣，法國興業銀行(Société Générale)最近的一項調查發現，沒有人認爲未來12個月人民幣兌美元匯率將上漲，而42%的受訪者認爲，中國央行將“積極尋求貶值”以應對日元和歐元匯率下跌。

Instead, the currency is up 0.49 per cent today, following a 0.32 per cent climb yesterday and a 0.2 per cent move up on Tuesday. For many currencies those are tiny moves; for the tightly-controlled renminbi, they are huge (se chart).

人民幣兌美元匯率今日上漲0.49%，週三和週二分別上漲0.32%和0.2%。對於很多貨幣而言，這些波動浮動很小；但對於受到嚴格管制的人民幣而言，這是巨幅波動（見下圖）。

Mr Tihanyi said today's move simply shows the PBoC reacting to overnight gains in other currencies. The US dollar index slumped more than 2 per cent against a range of rivals, so the PBoC followed suit.

泰漢伊表示，週四的舉措只是表明央行正對其他貨幣匯率前一夜的上漲做出反應。美元兌其他一攬子貨幣指數前一夜下跌逾2%，因此中國央行也相應採取措施。

"It's very much about the dollar, it's all driven by the Fed, he said.

他表示：“這在很大程度上與美元有關，都是由美聯儲(Fed)推動的。”

But more broadly, Beijing is still clamping down on speculative bets about the currency's direction, to create more uncertainty, Mr Tihanyi said. The PBoC's main goal is to increase flexibility in the forex market and normalise the currency.

但泰漢伊表示，更廣泛地來說，中國仍在打擊押注人民幣匯率走向以造成更多不確定性的投機活動。中國央行的主要目標是加大外匯市場的靈活性，讓人民幣匯率走向正常化。

Last year, the PBoC deliberately pushed the renminbi lower in "an engineered squeeze" to spook those who had made one-way bets on the currency, Mr Tihanyi said. This year the PBoC has stepped back, but with the consensus in recent weeks expecting the currency to fall, policymakers have been pushing it the other way.

泰漢伊表示，去年，中國央行曾有意推低人民幣匯率，以嚇退那些單方面押注於人民幣升值的投機者。今年，中國央行減少了干預，但在最近幾周市場達成共識預測人民幣將貶值時，中國決策者再次將人民幣匯率推向相反方向。