卡梅倫邀奧巴馬站臺或適得其反

George Canning, the 19th-century British statesman, famously called the New World into existence “to redress the balance of the old”. David Cameron, UK prime minister, no doubt had similar hopes when he asked Barack Obama to visit the country this week barely two months before its Brexit referendum. Who better than a US president to refute the Brexiteer dream of replacing Britain’s continental ties with an anglospheric world? Who better than Mr Obama to deflate the feverish ambitions of Boris Johnson, MP and mayor of London?

19世紀英國政治家喬治•坎寧(George Canning)曾有一種著名的說法，稱正在形成的新世界“令舊世界進入新的平衡”。英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)在距離英國退歐公投只有兩個月之際，邀請巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)本週訪問英國，無疑是有類似的期待。要駁斥英國退歐派用“英語圈”取代英國與歐洲大陸之聯繫的夢想，還有比美國總統更合適的人選嗎？要挫敗國會議員、倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)的狂熱野心，還有比奧巴馬更合適的人選嗎？

Alas, that is where the poetry ends. In the age of Donald Trump, Americans worry about the coarseness of their debate, but it is at least rivalled by Britain’s tradition of character assassination. Mr Obama is taking quite a risk with his visit. US presidents make a point of avoiding other democracies ahead of general elections for fear of seeming to meddle. By putting the UK’s economic and geopolitical future in question, the June 23 referendum is far more important than any ordinary election.

可惜，美好的願望到此爲止。在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)時代，美國人對他們的辯論表現出的粗俗感到擔憂，但英國的人格誹謗傳統的粗俗程度至少與之不相上下。奧巴馬這次訪問要承擔相當大的風險。由於擔心被視爲插手干預，美國總統一貫注意避免在大選前訪問其他民主國家。6月23日的英國退歐公投，令英國的經濟和地緣政治未來打上了問號，這使得這一公投的重要性遠遠超過了任何普通選舉。

Instead of giving a helpful tilt to Mr Cameron’s Remain campaign, Mr Obama’s intervention could backfire. Even before Mr Obama opened his mouth, Mr Johnson last week accused him of “outrageous and exorbitant hypocrisy” for wanting Britain to persist with a sovereignty-pooling arrangement the US would never contemplate. Slightly more politely, a group of pro-Brexit members of parliament last month wrote to Mr Obama urging him not to interfere. “We would certainly never think of visiting the United States and telling the US public how to vote in an election or the amendment of their constitution,” said Kate Hoey, an opposition Labour party MP.

奧巴馬的干涉不但不會爲卡梅倫的“留歐”運動帶來幫助，還可能產生反作用。甚至在奧巴馬還未開口之時，約翰遜就在上週先將批評的矛頭指向了他，稱他想讓英國留在一種美國絕不會考慮的主權集中安排中，是“蠻橫無禮、極其僞善”之舉。多名支持英國退歐的英國議員則略爲委婉，他們在上個月寫信給奧巴馬，敦促他不要干涉此事。反對黨工黨(Labour)議員凱特•霍伊(Kate Hoey)表示：“毫無疑問，我們絕不會考慮去美國告訴美國公衆在選舉或修改憲法時如何投票。”

She had a point. Yet the intensity of the prebuttals before Mr Obama’s visit betrays worries about his potential influence. Much of the Brexit case rests on the view that the UK could quickly negotiate a free trade agreement with the US. Having had to grapple with surging protectionist sentiment at home, Mr Obama is perhaps the world’s leading expert on how difficult that would be to achieve. Last year Mike Froman, the understated US trade representative, said: “We are not particularly in the market for free trade agreements with individual countries,” after he was asked about prospects for a US-UK deal. In plain English that meant there would be zero chance. Mr Obama will look for a tactful way to reinforce that point.

她說的有一定道理。然而，奧巴馬訪英之前對他的密集討伐暴露出支持英國退歐的人士對奧巴馬潛在影響力的擔憂。很大一部分支持英國退歐的理由基於英國能夠迅速與美國達成自由貿易協定的觀點。然而，不得不努力應對國內高漲的保護主義情緒的奧巴馬，大概是世界上最瞭解這有多麼困難的人。去年，言語謹慎的美國貿易代表邁克•弗羅曼(Mike Froman)在被問及美英達成自由貿易協定的前景時說：“我們並沒有特別尋求和單個國家達成自由貿易協定。”用直白的話來說，這意味着可能性是零。奧巴馬會尋求用一種圓滑的辦法來強化這一觀點。

Furthermore, Mr Obama’s popularity ratings in the UK are higher than for any local politician, including Mr Johnson. They are particularly high among Britain’s millennial generation, whose high turnout would be key to defeating the pro-Brexit case in June. UK polls show younger voters are more comfortable with the EU than older ones. Mr Obama will hold a town hall event in London with young voters. He will have dinner with royals William and Kate and lunch with William’s grandmother, the Queen.

此外，奧巴馬在英國的人氣高於任何本土政治人士，包括約翰遜。奧巴馬在英國千禧一代中的人氣尤其高，他們的高投票率將是在6月挫敗英國退歐派的關鍵。英國民調結果顯示，比起年紀較大的選民，較年輕選民更安於留在歐盟。奧巴馬將在倫敦市政廳舉行一場面向年輕選民的活動。他將和威廉王子和凱特王妃(royals William and Kate)共進晚餐，並與威廉王子的祖母英國女王(the Queen)共進午餐。

The latter, who turns 90 tomorrow, might give Mr Obama a crash course on how to influence British voters without appearing to do so. Shortly before the referendum on Scotland’s independence in 2014, the apolitical monarch urged Scots to “think hard” before they voted. It was clear in which direction she wished such thinking to go. The margin in favour of the status quo was wider than the polls anticipated. Mr Obama will be hoping for a similar outcome against Brexit on June 23.

明天將迎來90歲大壽的女王可能會給奧巴馬上一堂關於如何不着痕跡地影響英國選民的速成課。2014年蘇格蘭獨立公投前不久，這位不問政治的君主敦促蘇格蘭人在投票前“好好想想”。她所希望的思考方向很明顯。結果，支持維持現狀陣營的優勢比民調結果預測的要大。奧巴馬也將希望6月23日反對英國退歐陣營能迎來類似的結果。

In spite of Mr Obama’s supposed coolness on the UK-US “special relationship”, he readily agreed to this trip as a favour to Mr Cameron. “We want to do whatever Cameron thinks will help him to win this vote,” says Lou Susman, Mr Obama’s first ambassador to Britain, and an informal adviser. “Of course, it is entirely up to the British people which way they vote.” Naturally, that goes without saying.

儘管奧巴馬應該在英美“特殊關係”方面表現冷淡，但他仍痛快地答應爲幫卡梅倫一個忙而訪英。“我們願意做任何卡梅倫認爲將幫助他贏得這次投票的事情，”美國駐英國大使、奧巴馬的非正式顧問路易斯•薩斯曼(Louis Susman)說，“當然，投哪一邊完全取決於英國民衆自己。”自然，那是不言而喻的。