什麼是國力強大的關鍵 Connections not armies make countries powerful

During the cold war, military might and economic clout were the measures of power that mattered. Today — in an increasingly interdependent world, among states where use of direct force against one another is all but unthinkable — connections are equally important. The most connected states, wielding influence and controlling information flows, are more useful for making things happen in the world than those that simply possess enormous armies.

在冷戰時期，軍事實力和經濟影響力是衡量國家實力的關鍵指標。如今，聯繫同樣關鍵——在一個日益相互依存的世界裏，各國之間直接動武幾乎是不可想象的。與那些只是擁有龐大軍隊的國家相比，能夠施加影響並控制信息流動、對外聯繫最多的國家更能成事。

Global flows of goods, services, finance, people and data “play an ever-larger role in determining the fate of nations, companies and individuals”, according to the McKinsey consultancy, which measures these factors in its “connectedness” index. “To be unconnected is to fall behind.” Singapore, a small, open economy at the heart of global shipping and finance flows, comes top of the list — the Netherlands, the US, Germany, Ireland and the UK follow.

諮詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)表示，全球商品、服務、資金、人員和數據流動在決定國家、公司和個人的命運方面“扮演着越來越大的角色”。麥肯錫在其“聯繫度”指數中對這些因素進行了衡量。“孤立就會落後”。處於全球航運和資金流動核心的小型開放經濟體新加坡名列榜首，荷蘭、美國、德國、愛爾蘭和英國緊隨其後。

Energy still plays a big part in determining connectedness. As long as specific Middle Eastern countries are at the centre of the world’s energy flows, they exercise power over other nations vastly disproportionate to their geographical size or military and economic weight. The Opec countries proved this point in the 1970s, when energy production was much more concentrated. Today, Saudi Arabia is refusing to allow a deal to freeze oil production unless its regional rival, Iran, agrees to sign up.

能源仍然在決定聯繫度方面佔據重要位置。只要中東國家仍處於全球能源流動的核心，它們就能夠對其他國家施加與自身國土面積或者軍事和經濟實力極不匹配的影響力。在能源生產集中度高得多的上世紀70年代，歐佩克(OPEC)國家證明了這一點。如今，沙特拒絕達成凍結石油生產的協議，除非其地區競爭對手伊朗同意簽署協議。

In the next decade, however, influence over global digital flows will grow far more important. We will see the development of sophisticated tools to impose digital sanctions, blocking some commerce, information and communication but allowing the rest.

然而，在下一個十年，對全球數字流動的影響力將變得重要得多。我們將會看到複雜工具被開發出來，用來施加數字制裁，封鎖一些貿易、信息和通訊，但允許其餘的貿易、信息流動和通訊進行。

Meanwhile, the lens of connectedness offers a useful perspective on the debate over British membership of the EU. Brexit advocates want to make Britain an island on the edge of the union once more — close enough to claim the benefits of connectedness but with sufficient autonomy to be truly sovereign. In fact, the connectedness index shows that the status quo provides highly beneficial codependence for both parties.

與此同時，從聯繫度的角度來看待英國退歐辯論，是一個有益的視角。主張英國退歐的人希望讓英國再次成爲歐盟(EU)邊緣的一座島嶼——足夠靠近以享受聯繫的益處，但又有足夠的自治權，從而成爲真正的主權國家。實際上，聯繫度指數表明，維持現狀帶來的相互依賴對雙方都非常有利。

When the scores of all the member states are combined, the EU as a whole ranks third in the connectedness index, behind Singapore and the US. Without Britain the EU27 ranks fourth; Britain without the EU ranks third.

當綜合所有成員國的得分的時候，歐盟在聯繫度指數中整體排名第三，落後於新加坡和美國。不包括英國在內的歐盟27個成員國排名第四；脫離歐盟的話，英國排名第三。

The reason is that so many of the EU27’s flows are within the union: 45 per cent of goods trade; 52 per cent of services trade; 62 per cent of foreign direct investment flows; 72 per cent of people flows; and 77 per cent of data flows. The UK presents almost the opposite profile: 70 per cent of UK trade flows are with the rest of the world, outside the EU; 86 per cent of services trade; 63 per cent of FDI flows; and 62 per cent of people flows. So membership allows Britain to participate fully in the intra-union flows that create the world’s largest economy; and provides the EU27 with a vital link to the rest of the world.

理由是，歐盟27國中有許多流動是在聯盟內部發生的：45%的商品貿易、52%的服務貿易、62%的外國直接投資(FDI)流動、72%的人員流動，以及77%的數據流動。英國的情況幾乎完全相反：70%的商品貿易流動、86%的服務貿易、63%的外國直接投資流動以及62%的人員流動是在英國與歐盟以外的其他國家之間發生的。因此歐盟成員國身份使得英國可以完全參與聯盟內部流動——這些流動創造了全球最大的經濟體——併爲歐盟27國提供了與全球其他國家的關鍵聯繫。

The picture is much the same in diplomacy. As US President Barack Obama explained in his recent interview with The Atlantic, much of his foreign policy has been aimed at substituting diplomacy for force as the principal tool for getting things done in the world. His engagement, for example, has prevented Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

外交方面的情況同樣如此。正如美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)最近在接受《大西洋》(The Atlantic)採訪時解釋的那樣，他的許多對外政策的目的是用外交取代武力，作爲在國際上促成事情的主要工具。例如，他的接觸策略已經阻止了伊朗獲得核武器。

Diplomacy is social capital; it depends on the density and reach of a nation’s diplomatic contacts. The Global Diplomacy Index, just published by Australia’s Lowy Institute for International Policy, ranks nations by the number of embassies, consulates and missions they have. The US comes first, then France, China and Russia — then the UK, ahead of the other EU states.

外交是社會資本；它依賴於一國外交聯繫的深度和廣度。澳大利亞洛伊國際政策研究所(Lowy Institute for International Policy)剛剛發佈的全球外交指數(Global Diplomacy Index)按照各國擁有的大使館、領事館和使團的數量進行了排名。美國排名第一，隨後是法國、中國和俄羅斯，接下來是英國，排在其他歐盟國家之前。

As part of Europe, Britain has the benefit of consulates and missions in many cities where it is not now represented. Given that the Foreign Office budget has fallen by almost 20 per cent in the past five years, tapping into this network matters. Once again, however, the EU would suffer from a British exit, losing the benefit of some of the world’s most talented diplomats.

作爲歐洲的一部分，目前英國雖然在許多城市沒有派駐使節，但仍同樣享受有領事館和使團的益處。鑑於英國外交部預算在過去5年裏下降了近20%，利用這種網絡至關重要。然而，歐盟同樣將因英國退出而受損，不再享受擁有一些全球最有天賦的外交官的益處。

In sum, if connectedness is indeed a critical measure of 21st-century power, Britain and the EU would both lose substantially from Brexit. John Donne knew this 400 years ago. Everyone knows the line, “No man is an island”. Few remember the next words from his Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions. “Every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main; if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less.”

總之，如果聯繫度真的是21世紀實力的關鍵指標，英國和歐盟全都將因英國退歐而損失巨大。約翰•多恩(John Donne)400年前就知道這一點。所有人都知道“誰都不是一座島嶼”這句詩，但很少有人記得多恩的祈禱文集《喪鐘爲誰而鳴：生死邊緣的沉思錄》(Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions)中接下來的文字。“每個人都是歐洲大陸的一小塊，那本土的一部分；如果一塊泥巴被海浪衝掉，歐洲就小了一點 ”。

If British membership of the EU be washed away, the clod and the continent will both be diminished. Joined together, and connected to the rest of the world, they are mighty.

如果英國真的退歐，英國和歐洲都將被削弱。兩者合在一起，並與其他國家緊密聯繫，它們都將是強大的。