揭開ISIS財政真相
Bombing Isis oil infrastructure will not be enough to cripple the financing of the jihadi war machine, western intelligence assessments indicate, as the scale and intricacy of the economy it runs becomes clear.
西方情報評估顯示，轟炸“伊斯蘭國”組織(ISIS)的石油基礎設施將不足以削弱聖戰分子戰爭機器的資金來源。ISIS經濟的規模和複雜細節正變得清晰起來。
The US-led coalition against Isis last week celebrated having killed the head of its financial affairs, Abu Salah. President Barack Obama hailed the killing on Monday as part of a concerted effort to strike the jihadi group and its leadership “harder than ever”.
以美國爲首的聯軍上週歡呼打死ISIS財務主管阿布薩拉赫(Abu Salah)。美國總統巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)週一稱讚打死薩拉赫的行動，稱其爲協同努力的一部分，這種協同努力的目的是“比以往任何時候都更狠地”打擊這個聖戰集團及其領導層。
But in a Financial Times investigation into Isis finances, several senior intelligence officials and diplomats have said that without a ground campaign it will be hard to stop Isis from financing its core operations — and paying the more than 30,000 fighters who make up the backbone of its military force.
但在英國《金融時報》對ISIS財政展開的調查中，多名高級情報官員和外交官都表示，在無意捲入地面作戰的情況下，很難阻止ISIS向其核心行動輸送資金，以及向構成其軍事力量主體的逾3萬名作戰人員支付薪水。
One coalition intelligence official said that Isis was estimated to possess sufficient reserves and a viable income stream to keep its military operations running at their current level for three years. When the coalition began its bombing campaign in October 2014, the official said, the assessment had been that Isis would begin to feel a squeeze on its finances within 12 months.
聯軍的一名情報官員表示，據估計，ISIS擁有足夠儲備和靠得住的收入來源，可在目前水平上維持三年的軍事行動。這名官員承認，當聯軍在2014年10月開始轟炸時，相關評估是ISIS將在12個月內開始感受到財政緊張。
Based on documents and dozens of interviews with former Isis commanders, Iraqi and Syrian officials in Isis territory, and coalition diplomats, the FT has produced its own assessment of the Isis balance sheet.
根據文件和對數十名ISIS前指揮官、ISIS地盤內的伊拉克和敘利亞官員，以及聯軍外交官的採訪，英國《金融時報》對ISIS的資產負債表作出了自己的評估。
In the past year, the jihadi terror group has raked in almost as much revenue from looting, confiscations — often thinly veiled in religious rhetoric — and taxation as it has from oil, its primary funding resource, the investigation found. Before the coalition started targeting Isis oil wells last month, the group was estimated to earn as much as $450m a year from oil.
調查發現，在過去一年裏，這個聖戰恐怖組織從掠奪、沒收（往往以牽強的宗教說辭爲藉口）和稅收穫得的財政收入，幾乎和石油（其主要資金來源）一樣多。在聯軍上月開始空中打擊ISIS油井之前，該組織估計每年從石油賺取高達4.5億美元。
In total, Isis makes close to $900m a year, the FT’s analysis indicates, with about two-thirds of that ploughed back into its war machine.
英國《金融時報》的分析顯示，ISIS每年的總收入接近9億美元，其中約三分之二被投入它的戰爭機器。
But its core fighting force, comprising principally foreign recruits to the “caliphate”, costs just $200m-$250m annually, underlining how the jihadis could weather a big hit to their revenue.
但其核心戰鬥力量——主要由“哈里發”的外國應召者組成——每年僅耗資2億至2.5億美元，突顯這個聖戰恐怖分子能夠承受對其財政收入的沉重打擊。
About $20m is spent every month to pay for the core fighters. A further $15m-$20m is spent on local fighters and auxiliaries. Estimates from coalition intelligence officials vary, but most agree that the core force is at least 30,000-strong, with 50,000-70,000 more split between local members, auxiliary and part-time forces.
ISIS每月要向核心作戰人員支付大約2000萬美元，還要向當地作戰人員和輔助人員支付1500萬至2000萬美元。聯軍情報官員的估算各不相同，但多數都認爲，核心力量的人數至少有3萬，還有共計5萬至7萬的當地成員、輔助人員和兼職力量。
Via looting and confiscations of the towns they have overrun in Iraq and Syria, the jihadis have amassed reserves of more than $1bn, according to US and European intelligence officials.
據美國和歐洲情報官員分析，通過掠奪和洗劫他們在伊拉克和敘利亞攻佔的城鎮，聖戰者積累了逾10億美元儲備。
Much of the income in recent months has come from sources which will be hard for the coalition to disrupt without risk of civilian casualties or even humanitarian disaster.
近幾個月有很大一部分收入來自聯軍很難在避免平民傷亡甚至人道主義災難的情況下進行破壞的來源。
A foreign fighter for Isis receives a base salary of up to $150 a month topped up with benefits, ranging from $200 a month as an emigration bonus, war spoils and allowances for wives and enslaved women.
ISIS的外國作戰人員每月獲得至多150美元的基本工資，外加各種福利——從每月200美元的移民獎金、戰利品，到妻子和奴役女性的津貼。
On average, it amounts to around $800, according to fighters from Isis territory.
據ISIS地盤上的作戰人員介紹，平均而言，這相當於每月收入約800美元。
Other priority areas of Isis spending include its internal security apparatus, comprising the morality police, the hisba, and the secret police, the amniyat. The FT investigation indicates that Isis spends as much as $15m a month on internal security.
ISIS的其他優先支出領域包括其內部安全機器，主要是道德警察hisba和祕密警察amniyat。英國《金融時報》調查顯示，ISIS在內部保衛上每月支出高達1500萬美元。
Other areas of government, such as healthcare and education, receive less than $10m a month between them.
其它政府職能領域，如醫療和教育，每月總共得到的經費不到1000萬美元。
