地震專家對尼泊爾強震有"先知"

Nepal's devastating earthquake was the disaster experts knew was coming.

尼泊爾遭遇的此次毀滅性地震是在地震專家預料之中。

Just a week ago, about 50 earthquake and social scientists from around the world came to Kathmandu, Nepal, to figure out how to get this poor, congested, overdeveloped, shoddily built area to prepare better for the big one, a repeat of the 1934 temblor that leveled this city. They knew they were racing the clock, but they didn't know when what they feared would strike.

僅在一週前，來自世界各地的約五十名地震學家和社會學家來到尼泊爾首都加德滿都討論，如果1934年那場將這座城市夷爲平地的大地震再次上演，如何才能讓這個貧窮、擁擠、過度開發且建築粗製濫造的地區更妥善地做好準備。專家們知道自己在和時間賽跑，但他們不知道令人擔憂的情況何時會出現。

"It was sort of a nightmare waiting to happen," said seismologist James Jackson, head of the earth sciences department at the University of Cambridge in England. "Physically and geologically what happened is exactly what we thought would happen."

“有點像遲早會成真的噩夢，”英國劍橋大學地球科學系主任、地震學家詹姆斯•傑克遜（James Jackson）說，“從物理學和地質學的角度來說，發生的事情完全在我們的預料之中。”

But he didn't expect the massive quake that struck Saturday to happen so soon. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake killed more than 1,900 and counting and caused widespread destruction.

但傑克遜沒有料到這場大地震會來得如此之快，在週六降臨。這場里氏7.8級地震已經造成了1900人死亡（死亡人數仍在上升）以及大面積的破壞。

"I was walking through that very area where that earthquake was and I thought at the very time that the area was heading for trouble," said Jackson, lead scientist for Earthquakes Without Frontiers, a group that tries to make Asia more able to bounce back from these disasters and was having the meeting.

“地震無國界”是一個幫助亞洲從災難中重新振作的團體，它組織召開了這次專家會議。其主席科學家傑克遜說：“我曾到過地震發生的地方，那時我就在想那兒可能會有災難發生。”

A Kathmandu earthquake has long been feared, not just because of the natural seismic fault, but because of the local, more human conditions that make it worse.

人們早就擔心加德滿都會遭遇大地震，不僅是因爲它處於地震斷層，還因爲更多人爲的因素會導致災難更嚴重。

The same size shaking can have bigger effects on different parts of the globe because of building construction and population and that's something the U.S. Geological Survey calculates ahead of time. So the same level of severe shaking would cause 10 to 30 people to die per million residents in California, but 1,000 maybe more in Nepal, and up to 10,000 in parts of Pakistan, India, Iran and China, said USGS seismologist David Wald.

同樣面積的震動會因爲房屋建築和人口稠密給全球的一些地方帶來更大的影響。這一點是美國地質勘探局很早之前計算出來的。因此，勘探局的地震學家大衛·瓦爾德（David Wald）說，同樣程度的強震，如果發生在加利福尼亞，每一百萬人會有10-30人喪生，而在尼泊爾，可能導致1000人遇難，在巴基斯坦、印度、伊朗和中國的一些地方，可能會造成多達一萬人死亡。

While the trigger of the disaster is natural — an earthquake — "the consequences are very much man-made," Jackson said. Except for landslides, which in this case are a serious problem, "it's buildings that kill people not earthquakes," Jackson said. If you lived in a flat desert with no water, an earthquake wouldn't harm you, but then few people want to live there.

儘管地震發生的原因是自然原因，“但它造成的後果大多是人爲的，”傑克遜說。除了山體滑坡，在這種情況下，這會是一個很嚴重的問題。“地震中殺死人的是建築，而不是地震本身，”他說。如果你住在平坦乾旱的荒漠裏，那地震根本就不會對你造成任何傷害，但是極少數人願意住在那裏。

"The real problem in Asia is how people have concentrated in dangerous places," Jackson said.

傑克遜說：“亞洲國家面臨的真正問題是在一些危險區域，人口十分密集。”

Kathmandu was warned, first by the Earth itself: this is the fifth significant quake there in the last 205 years, including the massive 1934 one.

這是地球第一次對加德滿都發出警告：此次地震是205年以來的第五場大地震，包括1934年的那場。

"They knew they had a problem but it was so large they didn't where to start, how to start," said Hari Kumar, southeast Asia regional coordinator for GeoHazards International, a group that works on worldwide quake risks. Kumar, Jackson and Wald said Nepal was making progress on reducing its vulnerability to earthquakes, but not quickly or big enough.

國家自然災害防制組織（一個致力於研究世界地震風險的組織）東南亞地區事務協調員哈里·庫馬爾（Hari Kumar）說：“他們知道自己的問題，但正因爲問題太大，他們不知從何着手，如何着手。”庫馬爾、傑克遜和瓦爾德說，尼泊爾有在努力提高自身對地震的抵抗力，但效果不太明顯，還需要些日子。

Kumar's group on April 12 updated a late 1990s report summarizing the Kathmandu Valley risks.

庫馬爾小組在4月12日更新了一篇20世紀90年代晚期的報告，總結了加德滿都河谷的地質災害風險。

"With an annual population growth rate of 6.5 percent and one of the highest urban densities in the world, the 1.5 million people living in the Kathmandu Valley were clearly facing a serious and growing earthquake risk," the report said, laying out "the problem" the valley faces. "It was also clear that the next large earthquake to strike near the Valley would cause significantly greater loss of life, structural damage, and economic hardship than past earthquakes had inflicted."

報告稱：“加德滿都河谷每年人口增長率達6.5%，是世界上城市密度最高的地區之一。在這裏居住的150萬人明顯面臨着嚴重且日益增加的地震風險。”報告將河谷面臨的“問題”一一展開，“很明顯，和以往的地震帶來的災害相比，下一次襲擊河谷附近的大地震會造成更重大的傷亡損失，建築破壞和經濟困境。”

And for years there were no building codes and rampant development so homes and other structures could be built without any regards to earthquakes, the report said. There are now building codes, but that doesn't help the older structures, and the codes aren't overly strong, Kumar said.

報告稱，多年來，這裏沒有建築規範，但開發得很快，所以住宅和其他建築在建造時沒有任何防震考慮。庫馬爾說，如今有了建築規範，但這對老建築並沒有什麼影響，並且規範實施力度也不大。

It's actually even made worse because of local inheritance laws that require property be split equally among all sons, Jackson said. So that means buildings are split vertically among brothers making very thin rickety homes that need more space so people add insecure living space on additional floors, he said.

傑克遜說，實際上，當地的繼承法使問題雪上加霜。法律要求房產應該平分給所有的兒子。他補充道，這就意味着建築會在兄弟間平分，導致房屋結構不穩，如果需要更多空間的話，人們就會私自加建樓層。

"The construction is appalling in Kathmandu," Jackson said.

傑克遜說：“加德滿都的建築令人膽戰心驚。”

Poverty and pollution make the problem worse, Jackson said. That's because people don't spend time worrying about some future earthquake because they have more pressing problems.

傑克遜說，貧窮和污染使問題更惡化。正因爲人們面臨着更緊迫的問題，所以沒時間擔憂未來可能發生的地震。

"If you live in the Kathmandu Valley you have other priorities, daily threats and daily nasty things happen to you in terms of air quality, water quality, pollution, traffic and just poverty," Jackson said. "But it doesn't mean that the earthquakes go away."

“如果你住在加德滿都河谷，你會優先考慮其他一些事情，每天會面臨威脅以及討厭的事情，比如空氣質量、飲用水質量、污染、交通以及貧困，”傑克遜說，“但這不意味着地震就會消失。”