蘇獨難在歐盟和北約找到知音

Scotland will renounce weapons of mass destruction and then saunter into the Nato nuclear alliance. So eager will be the EU to fling open its doors that it will skip the formalities, and Edinburgh will pick and choose among the terms of membership. The world, in other words, cannot wait to welcome an independent Scotland into its warm embrace. So says Alex Salmond, leader of the Scottish National party, as the nation prepares to vote on separation.

蘇格蘭將宣佈放棄大規模殺傷性武器，然後悠然加入北約(Nato)核同盟。歐盟(EU)會急切地敞開大門，以至於會直接跳過正常程序。對成爲歐盟成員國的條款，愛丁堡還能挑挑揀揀。換句話說，這個世界已經迫不及待地歡迎一個獨立的蘇格蘭投入它溫暖的懷抱。在蘇格蘭準備爲從英國分裂出去而投票之際，蘇格蘭民族黨(Scottish National party)的黨魁亞歷克斯•薩爾蒙德(Alex Salmond)是這麼說的。

Things are not quite like that, of course. Many European governments fear that a vote for Scottish independence will give succour to separatist movements across the continent. They have little interest in making life easy for a new breakaway state.

當然，事情並非如此。許多歐洲國家政府擔心，蘇格蘭獨立公投會促進整個歐洲大陸的分裂運動。它們並沒有興趣讓一個新分離出來的國家輕鬆快活地過日子。

The US has made no secret about its fears of what the break-up of Britain will mean for the cohesion of the western alliance. Nuclear deterrence is at the heart of the organisation’s strategic concept. As Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the outgoing secretary-general, observed this week, each of the 28 existing member states would have to sign up to the admission of an anti-nuclear Scotland.

美國毫不掩飾其對英國分裂影響北約凝聚力的憂慮。核威懾是北約戰略理念的核心。正如即將離任的北約祕書長安諾斯•福格•拉斯穆森(Anders Fogh Rasmussen)本週表示的，接納一個反核的蘇格蘭，需要現有的28個成員國的一致批准。

For Mr Salmond’s nationalists, these are inconvenient facts to be brushed aside, like the many outstanding economic questions, as English scaremongering. All those other states – in the EU and Nato – could be relied upon to discard their prejudices and interests in celebration of Scottish independence. Mr Rasmussen, José Manuel Barroso at the European Commission, the White House and anyone else you can think of will play a different tune after Thursday’s vote.

對於薩爾蒙德領導的民族主義者來說，這些尷尬事實和蘇格蘭許多突出的經濟問題都可以置之不理，都可以斥之以“英格蘭人的危言聳聽”。你可以指望歐盟和北約的所有其他國家摒棄偏見和利益考慮，歡迎蘇格蘭的獨立。在今天投票以後，拉斯穆森、歐盟委員會(European Commission)主席若澤•曼努埃爾•巴羅佐(José Manuel Barroso)、白宮以及你能夠想象到的其他任何人都將改弦易張。

Beyond insisting that Scotland will banish the Trident nuclear missile system from the Clyde and that it will not be drawn into conflicts in the Middle East, Mr Salmond does not have a foreign policy for his new state. And on this last issue – the reach beyond the Middle East of Islamist extremism – the murder this week of Scottish aid worker David Haines has raised the question as to whether Scotland could so easily inoculate itself against the harsh realities of the wider world.

除了堅稱蘇格蘭會將“三叉戟”(Trident)核導彈系統從克萊德(Clyde)海軍基地撤出，以及蘇格蘭不會捲入中東爭端以外，薩爾蒙德沒有爲他的新國家提出一套外交政策。在最後的這個問題上，在中東的伊斯蘭極端主義之外，本週蘇格蘭救援工作人員戴維•海恩斯(David Haines)被殺提出了一個問題：蘇格蘭是否能夠輕鬆讓自己免於面對來自更廣闊世界的嚴酷現實。

There is nothing to say that either European neighbours or the US would seek to isolate a Scotland that decided to strike out on its own. Over time it is entirely plausible to imagine it being welcomed into both the EU and Nato. The deception in the nationalist campaign lies in the assertion that everyone else would bend to Edinburgh’s will and allow Mr Salmond to dictate his own terms.

這並不是說歐洲的鄰國或者美國會刻意孤立決定自立門戶的蘇格蘭。隨着時間推移，完全有道理想象蘇格蘭被歐盟和北約接納。蘇格蘭民族主義運動中的謊言是，斷言其他所有人都會屈從於愛丁堡的意願，允許薩爾蒙德按自己的想法指定條件。

The idea that Scotland could join the EU with a share of the British rebate, no commitment to sign up to the Schengen area’s open borders and a permanent opt-out from the euro is regarded as risible in other European capitals. Mr Salmond seems to believe that, even as Scotland breaks away from the UK, it can inherit all the opt-outs negotiated by the Westminster government. It is not going to happen.

蘇格蘭民族主義者試圖讓蘇格蘭人相信，蘇格蘭能夠加入歐盟，並分享一部分英國的預算回扣(rebate)，不用承諾簽署申根區開放邊境協議，而且可以永久不使用歐元，但在其他歐洲國家政府看來，蘇格蘭民族主義者的這種想法是可笑的。薩爾蒙德似乎相信，即使蘇格蘭從英國分裂出去，蘇格蘭依然能繼承英國政府達成的所有關於自主事項的條款。但這種情況不會發生。

Nor will the Nato treaty be moulded and amended to suit Scotland’s tastes. Scotland may succeed in banishing Britain’s nuclear weapons – something that will hardly win it friends in the alliance – but it would not be accepted for membership as an anti-nuclear-weapons state.

北約也不會重塑和修改其協議條款來適應蘇格蘭的口味。蘇格蘭或許能夠成功地移走英國的核武器，但這會讓蘇格蘭很難在北約中找到朋友，作爲反核武國家的蘇格蘭將不會被北約接受爲成員國。

Take it on trust, the nationalists say. Scotland would move quickly to build its own military forces, its own intelligence and security services, and a diplomatic corps the envy of its partners. All these things are indeed possible. But they will require time, lots of it – and, critically, the enthusiastic help and co-operation not just of Britain but of other western governments.

相信吧，蘇格蘭民族主義者說。蘇格蘭會迅速行動，組建自己的軍事力量、情報和安保體系以及讓合作伙伴豔羨的外交使團。所有這些確實都是可能的。但它們需要時間，需要很多時間，關鍵是，還需要英國和其他西方國家政府的熱情幫助和合作。

Mr Salmond, as far as I can see, does not have anything you could call a world view. Instead, in the tradition of children in the playground through the ages, he prefers to respond to the hard questions by putting his hands over his ears and shouting as loudly as he can: “I can’t hear you.”

在我看來，薩爾蒙德完全不具有全球視野。相反，像古往今來在操場上玩耍的孩童那樣，用手捂住耳朵並且儘可能地高聲叫喊“我聽不見你說的話”，是他更喜歡的迴應難題的方式。