達沃斯在謹慎樂觀中閉幕
Concerns about the vulnerability of some emerging economies and gyrations in financial markets over the past few days should not dent “cautious optimism” about the global economy this year, leading central bankers and officials said on Saturday.
全球重量級的央行家和政府官員週六表示，對一些新興經濟體脆弱性的擔憂以及近期金融市場的劇烈波動，應該不會挫傷人們對今年全球經濟形勢的“謹慎樂觀”態度。In the big closing session of the World Economic Forum in Davos, they recognised risks existed and badly run emerging markets might be vulnerable to shocks, but concluded that the outlook was brighter than it has been for many years.
在本屆達沃斯世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)盛大閉幕會議上，與會者承認風險的存在，認爲缺乏有效管理的新興市場很容易受到危機衝擊，但他們最終得出的結論是，前景是多年來最爲光明的。Haruhiko Kuroday, the Japanese central bank governor said: “I think we can be cautiously optimistic about the global outlook.
日本央行行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)表示：“我覺得我們可以對全球前景持謹慎樂觀態度。”
“The US economy is likely to grow by 3 per cent plus this year as well as next year.
他表示：“今明兩年，美國經濟增長可能會在3%以上。歐洲終於在復甦。日本也正取得重大進展。印度、中國和印尼等新興經濟體以及其他國家的經濟增速，可能會繼續保持在高水平，還可能會加速。”Europe is finally recovering. Japan is also making significant progress. And emerging economies like India, China as well as Indonesia and others, their economic growth rates is likely to be maintained at high levels or likely to accelerate,” he said.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，她除了今年的全球經濟復甦(recovery)充滿期待外，還對另外兩個“R”感到擔憂。第一個是“風險”(risk)，她認爲，一些舊有的風險（例如完成金融業改革的必要性）與美國縮減定量寬鬆政策的相關風險一樣重要，此外還有針對歐元區可能陷入通縮等問題所新產生的擔憂。Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said apart from the recovery she expected this year, she was concerned about two other “Rs”. The first was “risks” where she thought some old risks such as the need to finalise financial sector reforms were as important as risks over US tapering, and new concerns such as deflation in the eurozone.
她還表示，從較長期來看，另一個讓她擔心的“R”是“重置”(reset)，她解釋稱，全球各地的貨幣和財政政策在迴歸正常之前還有很長的路要走。她補充稱：“最終的重置是那些在全球各地都有必要實施的結構性改革。”She also said that in the longer-term the other “R” was “reset”, by which she explained that monetary and fiscal policies around the world still had a long way to go before they could be classed as normal. “The final reset is those structural reforms that are necessary in all corners of the world,” she added.
在本週達沃斯年會上，政策制定者、政治人士以及商業領袖達成了這種謹慎樂觀的共識，這種局面是自2007年以來歷屆世界經濟論壇所不曾看到的。
