美國需求帶動中國出口激增

China’s trade surplus hit a fresh record high last month, as strong demand from the US lifted exports while sharp drops in commodity prices shrunk the value of imports.

中國上月的貿易順差再次創下新高，來自美國的強勁需求提升了中國的出口，而大宗商品價格急劇下降使進口貨值縮水。

The lunar new year holiday, which fell in late February this year, always distorts Chinese trade data, meaning that figures for the first two months give a better picture of the country’s economic performance. Exports rose 15 per cent in the first two months of the year, while the value of imports fell 20 per cent.

農曆新年假期（今年落在2月下半月）難免扭曲中國的貿易數據，這意味着年初兩個月的合計數字可提供有關中國經濟表現的更準確畫面。今年頭兩個月出口同比增長15%，而進口貨值下跌20%。

“I don’t think 15 per cent export growth can be sustained. But on balance, it looks like a fairly decent performance,” said Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

“我不認爲15%的出口增長可以持續。但總的來說，這看起來像是相當不俗的表現，”彭博研究機構(Bloomberg Intelligence)首席亞洲經濟學家湯姆•奧爾利克(Tom Orlik)表示。

In renminbi terms, the trade balance rose to Rmb370.5bn ($59.1bn) from a previous record of Rmb366.9bn in January.

按人民幣計算，2月份的貿易順差升至3705億元人民幣（合591億美元），高於上一個紀錄高點，即1月份的3669億元人民幣。

While a surplus would normally translate into pressure for the Chinese currency to appreciate, in this case the market still sees China’s domestic economy as weak and expects monetary policy to remain loose, Mr Orlik said. “The pressure on the renminbi will remain downward.”

奧爾利克表示，雖然貿易順差在正常情況下會轉化爲人民幣升值壓力，但就目前而言，市場仍然認爲中國國內經濟偏於疲弱，並預計貨幣政策將保持寬鬆。“人民幣所受的壓力仍將是下行的。”

Premier Li Keqiang set a lower GDP growth target of “around 7 per cent” in his speech to the annual legislative session, signaling that China expects an even sharper economic slowdown following the lowest growth in a quarter of a century last year.

中國總理李克強在全國人大年會發表講話時，設定了“7%左右”的較低國內生產總值(GDP)增長目標，表明繼去年錄得25年來最低增長率之後，中國預期將出現更大幅度的經濟放緩。

Exports for February alone surged 48 per cent, the Customs Administration said on Sunday, beating economists’ expectations.

中國海關總署週日宣佈，2月份出口激增48%。這個數字超出了經濟學家的預期。

“Demand from the advanced economies bodes well,” Li-Gang Liu, ANZ economist, wrote in a report. However, he expected the “weakening bias” towards the renminbi to remain.

“發達經濟體的需求是個好兆頭，”澳新銀行(ANZ)經濟學家劉利剛在報告中寫道。不過，他預計人民幣的“走弱傾向”將繼續存在。

The drop in value of Chinese commodity imports is a blow for Australia. Total imports from China’s top iron ore supplier dropped nearly 28 per cent by value, although volumes of iron ore imports held broadly steady. Low-cost Australian iron ore has gained market share as plunging prices make higher-cost mines uncompetitive, but a 45 per cent drop in Chinese coal imports has hurt miners in Australia.

中國大宗商品進口貨值下降，對澳大利亞是一個打擊。中國從其主要鐵礦石供應國進口貨物的總值下降了近28%，儘管鐵礦石進口量大致保持穩定。隨着價格暴跌使得成本較高的鐵礦失去競爭力，低成本的澳大利亞鐵礦石擴大了市場份額，但中國煤炭進口下降45%打擊了澳大利亞礦商。

Crude oil imports have steadied after record volumes at the end of last year built expectations that China would see the steep drop in international crude oil prices as a chance to fill strategic reserves more cheaply. China imported about 6.7m barrels a day of crude oil in the first two months of the year, down from December’s record 7.15m b/d.

去年底中國原油進口量達到創紀錄水平，令人預期中國將國際原油價格暴跌視爲一個廉價補充戰略儲備的良機。如今中國的原油進口量已經企穩。今年頭兩個月，中國平均每日進口大約670萬桶，低於去年12月創紀錄的每日715萬桶。