中國樓市恐再難重現昔日繁榮景象
China property investors are betting that help is on the way. They shouldn't get too giddy.
中國房地產的投資者押注政府將出臺支持措施，但他們不應過於樂觀。As prices and transaction volumes fall, several Chinese cities are considering looser limits on home purchases and mortgages, according to state-run media. The moves could shore up weak housing markets by bringing back buyers--especially speculators--who were boxed out by authorities when markets were too hot.
據中國國有媒體稱，隨着房價和成交量下降，數箇中國城市正考慮放鬆限購和房貸限制。此舉可能會吸引購房者（尤其是投機人士）重新入市，從而提振疲弱的住房市場。中國政府在房地產市場過熱時出臺的限購政策將投機者擋在了市場之外。Talk of a loosening has enlivened shares of China's big developers, which got an added boost Wednesday from an announcement that Beijing is rolling out a limited stimulus package of railway spending and the like. The CSI Real Estate index is up 16% in the past month, according to CapitalVue, a data provider.
房地產政策放鬆的傳聞使中國大型開發商的股票活躍起來，另外，中國政府週三宣佈將加快鐵路建設，這相當於一項小規模刺激方案，該消息對房地產類股帶來進一步提振。數據供應商CapitalVue表示，過去一個月中證地產指數累計上漲16%。
But while the restrictions may have damped property sales, removing them won't necessarily restore the good old days. Curbs on mortgage loan-to-value ratios and limits on the purchase of second and third homes were more stringent in China's biggest cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai. Those are also China's healthiest housing markets.
儘管上述針對房地產市場的限制措施可能抑制了房產銷售，但取消這些措施並不一定會使房地產市場重現昔日的繁榮。在北京、廣州和上海等中國一線城市，針對房貸成數和第二、三套住房的限購更加嚴格。不過這些城市也是中國最健康的房地產市場。The bigger problems are in China's once-fashionable second- and third-tier cities, where developers flocked in recent years. Inventories are swelling and prices are falling. Unsold residential space nationally has grown to 342 million square meters, equal to 42% of all the residential space built in 2013 and the highest level in years. In tier-two cities--generally smaller than China's very biggest--Standard Chartered estimates supply has quickly swelled to 25 months of sales, from a long-term average of 16 months.
更大的問題出現在一度火熱的二三線城市。近年來，開發商不斷涌向這些城市，現在這些城市存量房激增，房價下跌，全國未售出住宅面積已增至3.42億平方米，相當於2013年新建住房總面積的42%，也創下近幾年的最高紀錄。據渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)估計，在二線城市中，房屋存量足夠銷售25個月，而長期平均水平是16個月。New construction starts so far in 2014 are down more than in any year since 1996. Property investors are right to worry that all the excess supply will take substantial time to be absorbed. Higher borrowing costs and fears of a credit freeze hover over the sector.
2014年至今的新屋開工數下降幅度超出1996年以來任何一個年份。房地產投資者有理由擔心，太多的房屋供給需要相當長的時間才能消化，而貸款成本上升和對信貸緊縮的擔憂也依然籠罩着房地產市場。Yet China's big developers seem to think they are immune. On average, the top 20 tracked by Citigroup target sales growth of 25% this year, while the overall market is expected to grow just 8%.
不過大型開發商似乎有信心能夠避開衝擊。花旗集團(Citigroup)追蹤的20家大開發商平均預計今年銷售增長25%，而整體市場預計只會增長8%。Take midsize developer Agile Property: It targets 19% sales growth, despite exposure to second- and third-tier cities and aggressive price cuts at several of its projects. Its net leverage of 72% exceeds the industry average of 59%. Perhaps reflecting doubt about the home market, Agile is among a slew of Chinese developers that have launched projects abroad, in its case a development in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
以中型開發商雅居樂地產(Agile Property)爲例。這家公司雖然在二三線城市面臨風險，且大幅下調了幾個項目的售價，但仍預計今年銷售增長19%。該公司 槓桿率爲72%，高於59%的行業平均線。雅居樂地產在馬來西亞吉隆坡推出了自己的項目，成爲在海外推出項目的中國開發商之一，這一趨勢或許反映了中國開發商對國內市場的懷疑。China's stimulus and property-loosening measures could end up like a dose of smelling salts after a blow to the head--causing a quick stir, followed by a long malaise.
中國的刺激措施和房地產寬鬆舉措最終可能像頭部遭受重擊後給的一劑嗅鹽――能讓人迅速清醒，但接下來是漫長的病痛。
