中國政府設定年經濟目標
China said Friday it will seek to curb domestic debt growth and slash industrial overcapacity in 2014 without hurting growth, reaffirming a longer-term course laid out at a conclave of senior party officials last month.
中國週五表示，2014年將在保持經濟穩定增長的同時控制國內債務規模增加和解決工業產能過剩問題，即重申了上月中共十八屆三中全會制定的中長期改革目標。In a statement at the end of a four-day meeting, the Communist Party's top leaders spelled out their priorities in managing the economy in the short term.
在爲期四天的中央經濟工作會議閉幕時發佈的公告中，中共最高領導人列出了短期經濟工作的主要任務。The document read on state radio and television referred to the role of consumption as an economic driver, a sign the leadership is looking to overhaul the economy and reduce the role of government investment.
公告提到了消費對拉動未來經濟增長的作用，這一跡象表明中國領導人希望對經濟進行重大改革，降低政府投資的作用。中國國有電臺和電視臺均對公告內容進行了報道。
The statement also referred to local government debt, which has worried policy makers, and overcapacity in key sectors such as steel, glass and cement.
公告還提到了兩個問題，一是令決策者頭疼的地方政府債務問題，二是鋼鐵、玻璃和水泥等關鍵行業產能過剩問題。UBS China economist Tao Wang agreed with the leader's priorities in addressing the debt, but added, 'it's hard to tell if they can walk the walk because of the rapid development of shadow lending.' So-called shadow banking is lending by non-bank financial institutions, such as trust companies, securities firms and informal lenders.
瑞銀(UBS)中國經濟學家汪濤對中國領導人將解決債務問題作爲首要任務表示贊同，但補充稱，現在很難說這能否被付諸實施，因爲影子銀行業正快速發展。所謂的影子銀行業是指通過信託公司、證券公司以及非傳統貸款機構等非銀行類金融機構發放貸款。Since 2008, domestic debt has ballooned to 216% of GDP from 128% and could climb to 271% by 2017 if not corrected, according to Fitch Ratings. Economists note similar credit run-ups in countries in Europe, Asia and Latin America have ended in crashes, although few predict an imminent crisis in China.
據惠譽國際評級(Fitch Ratings)的數據顯示，自2008年以來，中國國內債務佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比重已經由128%飆升至216%；若不加以控制，到2017年這一比例將進一步提高至271%。雖然經濟學家們曾指出歐洲、亞洲和拉美一些國家類似的信貸猛增最終以崩盤告終，但很少有人預計中國短期內將面臨危機。The sharp rise in debt occurred when China began to combat the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, and banks ramped up funding of infrastructure, real estate and industrial projects. The credit growth has continued despite the recovery, as the shadow banking sector has increased lending in place of banks.
爲應對2009年和2010年的全球金融危機，中國國內銀行加大了對基礎設施、房地產和工業項目的融資力度，導致中國債務水平激增。雖然中國經濟有所回暖，但信貸仍在持續增長，因爲影子銀行業取代傳統銀行擴大了放貸規模。The statement released by the Central Economic Work Conference, the meeting of top leaders, said that China's policy makers faced the 'core task' of ensuring stable growth amid continuing economic headwinds and troubles with domestic security.
中央經濟工作會議發佈的公告稱，中國政策制定者在經濟遭遇持續阻力且行業安全問題堪憂的情況下面臨確保經濟穩定增長的“核心任務”。The conference comes about a month after a conclave of senior Communist Party officials, called the Third Plenum, set out a blueprint for longer-term reforms. On Friday, the leaders said they would maintain 'the spirit' of the plenum, but their focus was on tackling more immediate problems.
今年的中央經濟工作會議召開前，中共剛剛召開過十八屆三中全會，並在全會上爲中長期改革制定了藍圖。中國領導人週五表示，將全面貫徹落實黨的十八屆三中全會精神，但會着重解決當前更突出的問題。Local governments have been among the big drivers of debt, borrowing heavily to finance infrastructure and real-estate projects that are frequently mired in debt.
地方政府債務增加是造成國內總體債務水平上升的主要原因，地方政府因大量舉債爲基礎設施和房地產項目融資而經常深陷債務困境。The statement called resolving local debt problems 'an important economic task,' and said Beijing would 'strictly control the process by which governments' raise debt.'
公告稱，要把控制和化解地方政府性債務風險作爲經濟工作的重要任務，嚴格政府舉債程序。Signaling that the central government didn't envision a large bailout, the statement added 'every level of government will be responsible for their own debt.'
公告還稱，省區市政府要對本地區地方政府性債務負責任，這暗示中央政府並未考慮向地方政府提供大力援助。Another reason for the debt buildup is borrowing by firms, often state-owned, despite huge production gluts in industries such as steel, solar energy components and shipbuilding. Over the past few years, as the economy has slowed, many companies are finding there isn't enough demand to keep all their production lines running or their workers employed. Often with the political support of local government, the firms have borrowed to avoid major layoffs.
中國債務增加的另一個原因是企業（通常爲國有企業）借款，儘管鋼鐵、太陽能組件和造船等行業存在巨大的產能過剩。過去幾年，隨着經濟增長的放緩，許多企業發現國內需求已不足以維持其所有生產線的運作和員工就業。通常是在地方政府的政治扶持下，企業才得以通過借款來避免重大裁員。The leaders pledged to 'unswervingly resolve industrial overcapacity' -- a pledge that Beijing has made before and failed to carry out. For instance, steel capacity has increased in recent years even as factories have been underutilized.
中國領導人此次承諾要堅定不移化解產能過剩。中國政府此前也作過類似承諾，但未能付諸行動。例如，在鋼廠沒有進入全負荷運轉的情況下，近年來鋼鐵產能仍有所增加。But Ms. Wang, the UBS analyst, said the leaders signaled more resolve this time by adding that they would also focus 'on re-employment of people laid off from industries with overcapacity.' Beijing usually does all it can to avoid layoffs, which it fears could lead to social unrest.
但瑞銀分析師汪濤表示，中國領導人這一次展示出了更大決心，因爲他們還提到要重點抓好化解產能過剩中出現的下崗再就業工作。由於擔心失業現象會引發社會動盪，中國政府通常會盡一切所能避免企業裁員。Even so, the statement doesn't make clear how much risk Beijing is willing to take to tackle debt and overcapacity. The statement stressed the need for 'stable' growth. although a slowdown in credit is likely to lead to a slowdown in GDP growth.
即便如此，公告並未明確說明中國政府願承擔多少風險來化解債務和產能過剩問題。公告強調了維持經濟穩定增長的必要性，但信貸的放緩可能會導致GDP增速放慢。Economists have been looking for signs of whether China would maintain a 7.5% growth target for next year, unchanged from this year, or dial back the target to 7%. A lower growth target would signal that the leadership would press harder to resolve structural problems.
對於中國是將明年經濟增長目標與今年7.5%的水平保持一致，還是會下調至7%，經濟學家一直在尋找相關跡象。若增長目標被下調，將意味着中國領導人將加大結構性問題的解決力度。But the document sent mixed messages. Ms. Wang thought the leadership was signaling a 7% target while, Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Luis Kuijs thought it indicated 7.5%.
但中央經濟工作會議公告所傳遞出的信息並不清晰。汪濤認爲中國領導層暗示的明年經濟增長目標爲7%，而蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)分析師高路易(Luis Kuijs)則認爲是7.5%。
