小米IPO受挫,但其它中國公司不必太過擔心

Xiaomi’s initial public offering was pitched as the first in a wave of stock market debuts by Chinese tech giants. It didn’t go well — but there are reasons to think that other companies following it could fare better.

小米公司的首次公開募股被視爲中國科技巨頭上市浪潮中的先鋒。它進行得並不順利——但有理由認爲隨後而來的其他公司可能會做得更好。

Expectations for Xiaomi were high when it filed to go public in May. News reports said that the smartphone-and-gadget company was seeking a valuation of up to $100 billion. Yet that dream appeared to be a fantasy: When share trading ended Monday, its market capitalization was about $47.8 billion.

5月份小米申請上市時，人們對它的期望很高。新聞報道說，這家智能手機和小設備公司追求高達1000億美元的估值。然而，這個夢想似乎成了白日夢：當股票交易於週一收盤時，其市值約爲478億美元。

So, why did it miss the mark?

那麼，爲什麼它會遭到這樣的失敗？

Xiaomi pitched itself to investors as more than a producer of commodity electronics. (Its hardware division achieved a margin of just 8.8 percent last year.) Instead, the company said it was pushing further into internet services, like online music and video, from which it generated a 60 percent margin in 2017.

小米在投資者面前給自己的定位不僅僅是電子產品生產商（其硬件部門去年的利潤率僅爲8.8%）。相反，該公司表示，它正在進一步參與互聯網服務，如在線音樂和視頻，從而在2017年產生了60%的利潤率。

But according to the company’s prospectus, those internet services accounted for just 8.6 percent of its revenue last year. Smartphones represented 70.3 percent of the total. Investors don’t appear to believe that Xiaomi has yet made the leap from hardware company to internet giant.

但根據該公司的招股說明書，去年這些互聯網服務僅佔其收入的8.6%。智能手機佔總收入的70.3%。投資者似乎並不認爲小米已從硬件公司躍升爲互聯網巨頭。

(One factor that probably wasn’t responsible for Xiaomi’s woes: the trade war between the United States and China. The company’s biggest markets are India and China.)

（美中之間的貿易戰可能不是導致小米陷入困境的因素：公司最大的市場是印度和中國。）

Analysts have speculated that this I.P.O. may pose problems for other Chinese tech titans’ plans to go public. But that may not be the case. Here is DealBook’s look at why the forthcoming market debuts of other Chinese technology companies could play out more smoothly.

分析師推測，這次首次公開募股可能會給其他中國科技巨頭的上市計劃帶來問題。但情況可能並非如此。下面是交易錄(DealBook)的分析，爲什麼其他中國科技公司即將到來的上市可能會進展得更順利。

Ant Financial

螞蟻金服

Once the financial arm of the Alibaba Group, the company is now a full-fledged behemoth in its own right. It operates Alipay, China’s most dominant mobile payment app, and Yu’e Bao, a giant money-market fund, cementing its centrality in its country’s internet ecosystem.

作爲阿里巴巴集團的金融機構，該公司現在已經成爲一個成熟的大企業。它運營着中國最重要的移動支付應用支付寶和巨大的貨幣市場基金餘額寶，從而鞏固了它在中國互聯網生態系統中的核心地位。

Reasons to be confident: Ant Financial offers profitable internet services, but, unlike Xiaomi, they make up the vast majority of its business. Last month, it raised $14 billion in what was the biggest-ever fund-raising round by a private company, drawing upon investors like the investment firm Warburg Pincus and the sovereign wealth fund Temasek.

有信心的理由：螞蟻金服提供盈利的互聯網服務，但與小米不同，它們構成了該公司的絕大部分業務。上個月，該公司籌集了140億美元，這是私資公司有史以來規模最大的融資活動，吸引了華平投資集團(Warburg Pincus)和主權財富基金淡馬錫(Temasek)等投資公司。

Reasons to be cautious: Ant Financial faces heavy regulatory scrutiny from Beijing, which has tightened its leash on the Chinese financial industry. And Tencent’s WeChat Pay is fighting hard to become a more competitive rival.

謹慎的理由：螞蟻金服面臨來自北京的嚴格監管審查，北京已經收緊了對中國金融業的控制。而騰訊的微信支付正在努力成爲更有競爭力的對手。

Tencent Music Entertainment

騰訊音樂娛樂集團

Tencent’s music arm is a significant part of its parent company’s empire. And it already has a lock on Chinese music listeners’ ears: The business controls more than 70 percent of that country’s market for music streaming, according to analysts at Citigroup.

騰訊的音樂部門是其母公司帝國的重要組成部分。花旗集團(Citigroup)分析師稱，它已鎖定了中國音樂聽衆的耳朵：該公司控制着中國音樂流媒體市場的70%以上。

Reasons to be confident: Again, Tencent Music actually is a fast-growing internet company. It has about 700 million monthly users, with news reports estimating that 15 million of those pay for the service.

有信心的理由：騰訊音樂實際上是一家快速發展的互聯網公司。它每月有大約7億用戶，新聞報道估計，有1500萬用戶爲服務支付費用。

Reasons to be cautious: By comparison, Spotify, its closest counterpart, has 170 million monthly users, but 75 million of whom pay. Tencent Music will need to convince investors that more people are willing to pay for its services.

謹慎的理由：相比之下，與它最接近的對手Spotify每月有1.7億用戶，但有7500萬人爲之付費。騰訊音樂需要讓投資者相信，會有更多人願意爲其服務付費。

Meituan-Dianping

美團點評

The company, which was founded in 2010, offers food delivery, Groupon-like discounts and more. It’s now one of China’s most valuable tech start-ups, with a valuation of roughly $30 billion.

該公司成立於2010年，提供食品配送和類似Groupon的折扣等服務。它現在是中國最有價值的科技初創企業之一，估值約爲300億美元。

Reasons to be confident: Meituan-Dianping is still growing fast, having doubled its revenue last year to 33.9 billion yuan, or $5.1 billion. Tencent is one of its investors.

有信心的理由：美團點評仍在快速增長，去年的收入翻了一番，達到339億元人民幣。騰訊是其投資者之一。

Reasons to be cautious? It’s worth noting that the company’s losses nearly tripled last year from the prior year, to $2.9 billion. And while it has a lead over rival offerings from Alibaba, it is unclear how long that will last.

謹慎的理由：值得注意的是，該公司去年的虧損幾乎是去年的三倍，達到29億美元。雖然它領先於其阿里巴巴旗下的競爭對手，目前還不清楚這能持續多久。