特朗普用保護主義對付中國

Its deliberations are opaque and its decisions have the power to kill multibillion-dollar international business deals. Its acronym strikes fear into companies and investment bankers. Its day-to-day staff is an earnest and elite band of 16 Ivy League-educated lawyers who labour deep inside the US Treasury, ostensibly to protect America’s economic future. And it is poised to gain a lot more power.

它的想法讓人捉摸不透，它做出的決定有能力扼殺價值數十億美元的國際商業交易。它的首字母縮寫簡稱讓企業和投資銀行家膽寒。它的日常工作人員是一個非常認真的精英羣體，由16名擁有常青藤聯盟(Ivy League)教育背景的律師組成，他們在位於美國財政部的辦公室裏辛苦工作，表面上看是爲了保護美國經濟的未來。它還將獲得更多權力。

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (Cfius) is one of the most powerful — and enigmatic — regulators in the world. An inter-agency committee that brings together defence and intelligence staff with economic policymakers, it was created to vet inbound foreign investment for potential national security threats.

美國外國投資委員會（Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, 簡稱CFIUS）是世界最強大、最神祕的監管機構之一。作爲一個將國防和情報人員與經濟政策制定者集合在一起的跨機構委員會，CFIUS的創立就是爲了審查入境外國投資是否有可能威脅國家安全。

Yet reforms being pushed by President Donald Trump and contained in a bill now working its way through Congress would, if enacted, expand its workload from a few hundred transactions a year to potentially thousands.

然而，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)總統推動的、包含在目前正等待國會通過的一項法案中的改革，如果獲得通過成爲法律，該委員會的工作量將從每年幾百宗交易增加到可能數千宗。

And like so much of economic policymaking in Washington these days, it has one target in mind: China and its appetite for US intellectual property.

而且，正如華盛頓目前的許多經濟政策制定一樣，CFIUS心中有一個目標：中國及其對美國知識產權的胃口。

The planned reforms fit with an international pattern. From Australia to the EU, jurisdictions are tightening their scrutiny of inbound investment largely in reaction to what many governments suspect has been a strategically driven Chinese buying spree that in the US alone has been worth $116.6bn in the past five years according to the Rhodium Group, a consultancy.

這些計劃中的改革契合了當前的一種國際模式。從澳大利亞到歐盟，各司法轄區都在收緊對入境投資的審查，主要是爲了應對許多政府懷疑的受戰略驅動的中資收購熱潮。諮詢公司榮鼎諮詢(Rhodium Group)的數據顯示，過去5年，中國企業僅在美國就進行了價值1166億美元的收購。

However, the US proposals go further. For the first time, the bill now under consideration would give Cfius broad jurisdiction over major outbound investment by US companies, that since 1990 has been worth some $250bn, and the overseas ventures of US-based multinationals. And for that reason it has provoked a growing revolt from blue-chip American companies such as General Electric and IBM and a debate in Congress over how best to curtail Chinese pressure on US companies.

然而，美國提出的對策更加激進。目前正在審議中的這一法案，將首次給予CFIUS針對美國企業的大手筆對外投資（1990年以來已達到約2500億美元）、以及總部位於美國的跨國公司的海外合資公司的廣泛管轄權。出於這一原因，該法案引發了通用電氣(GE)、IBM等藍籌美國公司越來越多的抗議，以及美國國會圍繞如何最大限度地減輕中國對美國企業壓力的辯論。

The plans for Cfius strike to the heart of the Trump administration’s dilemma over how to deal with China, which it has called a strategic “competitor”. White House officials and their allies in Congress are struggling to respond to what they see as an existential economic threat from a China that aims to be the leader in artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles and other new industries.

CFIUS相關計劃直抵特朗普政府就如何應對中國而面臨的兩難的核心，特朗普政府稱中國爲戰略“競爭對手”。白宮官員以及他們在國會的盟友正在努力應對他們認爲關乎生死的來自中國的經濟威脅，中國的目標是成爲人工智能、自動駕駛汽車等新興產業的領導者。

The belief in that threat is driving much of Mr Trump’s trade and foreign policy. A national security strategy unveiled in December says protection of the US “innovation base” is an important objective. Now at the centre of the Trump administration’s China trade policy is an investigation launched into Beijing’s intellectual property regime.

特朗普相信上述威脅存在，這驅動着他的大部分貿易和外交政策。去年12月公佈的一項國家安全戰略稱，保護美國“創新基礎”是一項重要目標。如今，處於特朗普政府對華貿易政策核心的是對中國的知識產權制度發起的調查。

However, many of those plans are causing anxiety or are actively opposed by some leading US companies which see their growth prospects as closely tied to China, the second-largest economy in the world. Many fear the new rules would effectively become a murky system of technology controls and place a major regulatory damper on one of the most dynamic parts of the US economy.

然而，許多此類計劃正在引發焦慮，或者遭到了美國一些領先企業的強烈反對，後者認爲自身的增長前景與全球第二大經濟體中國密切相關。許多企業擔心，新規則實際上將變成一個晦澀不明的技術控制制度，給美國經濟最具活力的部分之一套上巨大的監管枷鎖。

“This is a radical change,” says Rod Hunter, who oversaw Cfius while on President George W Bush’s National Security Council and is now a partner at law firm Baker McKenzie. “You would basically turn the US technology industry into a regulated industry. If there was ever a way to turn the US technology industry into [failed carmaker] British Leyland this is how you do it.”

“這是劇變，基本上會把美國科技業變成一個受監管的行業。如果有什麼辦法把美國科技業變成（失敗的汽車製造商）英國利蘭(British Leyland)，這麼幹就行。”羅德?亨特(Rod Hunter)說，他曾在小布什(George W Bush)總統的國家安全委員會(National Security Council)負責監督CFIUS，現在是貝克?麥堅時國際律師事務所(Baker & McKenzie)合夥人。

One reason why the Cfius bill is attracting a lot of attention is that it is one of the few ideas that has won support from both Republicans and Democrats in an otherwise divided Congress this year.

CFIUS法案吸引大量關注的原因之一是，它是今年在原本分裂的國會中同時贏得了共和黨和民主黨人支持的少數幾項提議之一。

“China has weaponised investment in an attempt to vacuum up our advanced technologies and simultaneously undermine our defence industrial base,” John Cornyn, the Texas Republican who is the legislation’s chief backer, told Congress this month.

上述立法的主要支持者、德克薩斯州共和黨議員約翰?科寧(John Cornyn)本月對國會表示：“中國已經把投資武器化，試圖掏空我們的先進技術，同時破壞我們的國防工業基礎。”

Over the past few years, scrutiny of Chinese purchases of US and European semiconductor and other technology companies has increased. But the proposed legislation would require Cfius to monitor overseas joint ventures in places like China that US officials fear often involve the forced transfer of vital and potentially sensitive technologies in exchange for doing business.

過去幾年，針對中資收購美歐半導體及其他科技公司的審查已經有所增加。但此次擬議的立法將要求CFIUS對位於中國等地的海外合資企業進行監管，美國官員擔心這些地方常常迫使外國企業轉讓關鍵的、具有潛在敏感性的技術，以換取經營許可。

“We’re all for [overseas investment],” says Robert Pittenger, the North Carolina Republican sponsoring the legislation in the House of Representatives. “We just don’t want our businesses in a position where they are coerced or they are exploited by a foreign government?.?.?.?to obtain critical data and security-related [technologies].”

“我們完全贊同（海外投資），”支持上述立法的北卡羅來納州共和黨衆議員羅伯特?皮滕傑(Robert Pittenger)說，“我們只是不想讓我們的企業處於被脅迫，或者被希望獲取關鍵數據及安全相關（技術）的外國政府利用的境地。”

Critics say export control rules provide a way to monitor the relatively small number of transactions involving sensitive technologies. They fear the legislation would vastly expand the mandate of the overstretched Cfius and harm the ability of US businesses to compete by subjecting any overseas deals they made to the rigorous scrutiny of Cfius.

批評人士表示，出口控制規則提供了監控數量相對較少的涉敏感技術的交易的一種渠道。他們擔心，這項立法將極大地擴大已不堪重負的CFIUS的職權範圍，損害美國企業參與競爭的能力，因爲美國企業達成的任何海外協議都要提交CFIUS接受嚴格審查。

The committee reviewed around 240 transactions but that could expand to thousands or even tens of thousands of business deals around the world, experts say.

專家表示，該委員會過去每年審查約240宗交易，但今後可能擴大到全球範圍內數千、甚至數萬宗商業交易。

Some companies have backed the legislation, with software company Oracle declaring in a November letter that the changes were needed to close loopholes that now were “putting at risk critical innovations that bolster and ensure our national security”. But tech rivals such as IBM have mounted a public fight against the bill.

一些企業已表示支持這項立法，軟件公司甲骨文(Oracle)在去年11月的一封信中宣稱，需要變革來堵住如今“將支撐和確保我們國家安全的關鍵創新置於危險之中”的漏洞。但IBM等技術競爭對手已對該法案發起了公開反對。

“A system of technology controls that unilaterally stops American firms from doing business abroad will not advance national security interests if it simply hands markets to foreign competitors,” Chris Padilla, IBM’s vice-president of government and regulatory affairs, told the Senate Banking Committee during a January hearing. The current version of the bill would capture all manner of innocuous business done overseas by IBM such as the sale of servers or the licensing of trademarks “that could not be less threatening to national security”.

IBM負責政府和監管事務的副總裁克里斯?帕迪拉(Chris Padilla)在1月舉行的一次聽證會上對美國參議院銀行業委員會(Senate Banking Committee)表示：“一個單邊阻止美國公司在海外開展業務的技術控制制度，如果僅僅把市場送給外國競爭對手的話，將不會推進國家安全利益。”該法案的當前版本將覆蓋IBM在海外進行的各種無害業務，如“對國家安全毫無威脅”的服務器銷售或商標授權。

The pushback from business has forced congressional aides to promise the release of a finessed version soon. Treasury officials have also said that they would make sure that any Cfius interest in outbound investment remains narrowly focused on national security. “From Cfius’ perspective we don’t want to be looking at lots of transactions that are unlikely ever to raise national security concerns,” says a senior US Treasury official.

來自商界的阻力迫使國會助理承諾儘快拿出一個巧妙修改的版本。美國財政部官員也表示，他們將確保CFIUS對對外投資的任何關注都僅限於國家安全。財政部一位高級官員稱：“從CFIUS的角度來看，我們不希望審查大量根本不大可能引發國家安全擔憂的交易。”

There are also signs that some in Congress see the business concerns as valid and would like to see the outbound measures put into separate legislation updating the export control regime, a much more transparent process managed by the US commerce department.

也有跡象顯示，一些國會議員認爲這些商業擔憂是合理的，並希望把針對對外投資的措施放入單獨的立法，升級出口控制制度——一個由美國商務部管理的更加透明的程序。

Mr Pittenger says he and his colleagues are eager to address business concerns. “We’re listening. We’re listening very hard. We want to be responsive,” he says. But he and Mr Cornyn also say they remain committed to monitoring transactions involving overseas joint ventures, with a particular eye on China. They have accused opponents of being alarmist and even unpatriotic.

皮滕傑表示，他和同僚迫切希望解決商業上的擔憂。“我們在傾聽。我們非常努力地傾聽。我們希望有所迴應。”他說。但他和科寧還表示，他們仍致力於監控涉及海外合資企業的交易，尤其緊盯中國。他們指責反對者危言聳聽，甚至不愛國。

“I would call this a patriotism deficit on their part,” Mr Cornyn said in a speech last month that raised eyebrows in a business community that he accused of trying to “perpetuate the status quo”. Mr Pittenger, meanwhile, likens abandoning the proposal about overseas deals to removing airport security checks because of complaints that the queues have become too long.

“我稱這是他們身上的愛國主義赤字，”科寧在上月的一次演講中表示，他在演講中指責商界試圖“維持現狀”引發了商界不滿。與此同時，皮滕傑把放棄針對海外交易的措施，比作因有人抱怨排隊的隊伍太長而取消機場安檢。

“Would that be a smart thing to do? No. And it would not be smart to allow people to bypass a security review by Cfius,” he says.

他說：“這樣做明智嗎？不明智。讓人們繞過CFIUS的安全審查也不明智。”

The debate over Cfius reform in Congress comes as the committee and its staff are stretched by a rising caseload that is more complex than it used to be.

美國國會圍繞CFIUS改革爆發爭論，正值該委員會及其工作人員被越來越多、比過去更加複雜的待處理案件搞得精疲力竭之際。

Lawyers who work on transactions reviewed by Cfius say even simple cases have in recent years begun to face procedural delays and complain that the Trump administration was too slow to nominate many of the appointees who sit on its panel. Things have become better in recent months and especially since Heath Tarbert, the assistant treasury secretary who oversees Cfius, began work at the end of September.

爲CFIUS審查的交易提供法律服務的律師們表示，近年來，即便簡單的案件也開始面臨程序上的拖延，並抱怨特朗普政府在提名任命委員會許多成員方面動作過於遲緩。最近幾個月，情況有所好轉，尤其是自負責監督CFIUS的助理財長希思?塔博特(Heath Tarbert)去年9月底開始履職之後。

But Cfius experts also detect signs that the balance between economic and defence interests on the committee has shifted under the Trump administration. The Pentagon and the wider intelligence community appear to have more power on the committee, lawyers say, and that has affected cases, particularly when China is involved.

但CFIUS專家也發現了一些跡象，即在特朗普政府的領導下，該委員會在經濟和國防利益之間的平衡已經發生了變化。律師們表示，五角大樓和情報部門似乎在該委員會中擁有更大的權力，而這影響到了案件，尤其是當涉及中國的時候。

Cfius’ rejection in January of a $1.2bn bid by Jack Ma’s Ant Financial to buy MoneyGram was understandable given the US payment company’s access to sensitive personal data of millions of Americans, including government employees and US soldiers, experts say. But when Cfius intervened in November to force Germany’s Biotest to sell its US operations before it would approve the takeover of the blood plasma products maker by a Chinese investor, it caused a perplexed reaction from some.

CFIUS今年1月否決了馬雲(Jack Ma)旗下螞蟻金服(Ant Financial)以12億美元收購速匯金(MoneyGram)的交易，專家表示這是可以理解的，因爲這家美國支付公司擁有包括政府僱員和美國士兵在內的數百萬美國人的敏感個人信息。但CFIUS去年11月份出手干預，要求德國Biotest出售旗下美國業務，之後纔會批准一家中國投資者對這家血漿產品生產商的收購，這引發了一部分人的困惑。

“It’s not clear what the national security angle is there,” says a Cfius lawyer. “We’re talking about blood plasma!”

“目前尚不清楚這起案件中的國家安全角度是什麼，”一名專做CFIUS案子的律師說，“我們談論的是血漿！”

Other high-profile transactions have run into trouble. HNA’s takeover of SkyBridge Capital, whose founder Anthony Scaramucci was Mr Trump’s White House communications director, has stalled before Cfius on questions over the conglomerate’s murky ownership structure and rumours of possible links to Beijing. China’s Hubei Xinyan Equity Investment Partnership last week was also forced to abandon its $580m bid to buy Xcerra, a US semiconductor testing equipment maker, after Cfius made its opposition clear to the companies.

其他一些備受矚目的交易也遭遇了麻煩。海航集團(HNA)收購美國天橋資本(SkyBridge Capital)的交易在CFIUS面前也陷入了停滯，原因是對該企業集團模糊的所有權結構的質疑以及可能與北京方面存在聯繫的傳言。天橋資本創始人安東尼?斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)曾擔任特朗普白宮的通訊聯絡主管。上週，在CFIUS明確表示反對後，中國的湖北鑫炎股權投資合夥企業(Hubei Xinyan Equity Investment Partnership)也被迫放棄以5.8億美元收購美國半導體測試設備製造商Xcerra。

Some of the proposed reforms are meant to streamline the process.

一些擬議中的改革旨在簡化審查流程。

An initial 30-day review would be extended to 45 days under Mr Cornyn’s bill. That, people close to Cfius say, would give intelligence agencies more time to review cases. It also would help discharge more cases before triggering a secondary 45-day investigation stage that Cfius has often employed.

根據科寧提出的法案，起初的30天審查期將延長至45天。接近CFIUS的人士表示，這將給情報機構更多時間來審查案件。這也將有助於在觸發CFIUS通常採用的爲期45天的第二調查階段之前，將更多案件排除掉。

Opponents of the bill are also concerned it would turn a voluntary process into one mandating notification of Cfius. The move is meant to give the committee wider power including over many smaller transactions that involve minority stakes in tiny start-ups. That would mean potentially thousands more cases on its docket. It could also put a chill on the angel investments that fuel innovation in hubs such as Silicon Valley, they argue.

反對該法案的人士還擔心，該法案將把一個自願過程變成CFIUS的一個強制要求。此舉旨在賦予該委員會更廣泛的權力，包括涉及小型初創企業少數股權的許多較小的交易。這意味着可能有數千宗更多案件等待該委員會處理。他們認爲，CFIUS還可能使推動硅谷等科技中心創新的天使投資降溫。

“Capital is mobile. Talent is mobile. If the regulatory burdens are too much people will take their talents and their capital elsewhere,” says Mr Hunter.

“資本是流動的。人才是流動的。如果監管壓力太大，人才和資本就會轉移到別處。”羅德?亨特說。

Critics argue that the Trump administration, which has put deregulation at the centre of its agenda, and the bill’s backers in Congress are underestimating the bureaucratic monster they are creating. Treasury officials insist they do not want to do that, but former officials are sceptical. “The current system can barely handle the 240 cases that it has now and we are looking at an expansion of scope of hundreds or thousands of additional cases,” says Kevin Wolf, who represented the commerce department on Cfius during the Obama administration.

批評人士稱，將放松管制作爲議程核心的特朗普政府以及該法案在國會的支持者，低估了他們製造的“官僚怪獸”。財政部官員堅稱，他們不想這麼做，但前政府官員對此表示懷疑。奧巴馬政府期間在CFIUS代表美國商務部的凱文?沃爾夫(Kevin Wolf)表示：“當前的系統幾乎無法處理現有的240起案件，而擺在我們眼前的是審查範圍要擴大到新增數百或數千起案件。”

“That’s going to need a very large organisation of people and new people at agencies that don’t yet exist,” he adds. “It’s going to create an extraordinary bureaucracy.”

“這將需要一個非常龐大的人員組織，還需要在各機構招納新人，”他補充道，“這將製造一個極爲巨大的官僚機構。”

SIDE BAR: US takes aim at China over IP

美國在知識產權領域瞄準中國

If Beijing’s alleged manipulation of the renminbi once drew the greatest ire from Washington, these days the dominant obsession is control of technology. In a world where the biggest geopolitical question has become how to manage a developing clash between a rising China and a divided America, the market for “foundational” technologies such as artificial intelligence is becoming a key battleground. Call it the innovation war.

如果說中國政府據稱操縱人民幣匯率的行爲曾招致華盛頓方面極大的怒火，那如今華盛頓最執着針對的是技術控制。在當今世界，最大的地緣政治問題已變成如何管理崛起的中國與分裂的美國之間不斷髮展的衝突，人工智能等“基礎”技術市場正在成爲關鍵戰場。我們可以稱之爲創新戰爭。

In its recently released National Security Strategy the Trump administration labelled protecting the “national security innovation base” a priority. “The genius of creative Americans, and the free system that enables them, is critical to American security and prosperity,” it said.

在最近公佈的《國家安全戰略》(National Security Strategy)中，特朗普政府將保護“國家安全創新基礎”列爲了優先事項。該戰略稱：“富有創造力的美國人的天賦、以及成就他們的自由體制，對美國的安全和繁榮至關重要。”

The administration wants to crack down on what it sees as a plethora of legal ways that make it too easy for China and other strategic rivals to acquire important technologies.

特朗普政府認爲太多合法途徑使中國等戰略競爭對手很容易獲得重要技術，它要打擊這些途徑。

Backing a strengthening of Committee on Foreign Investment in the US is one way the administration is doing that. In a report last year, a venture capital arm of the Pentagon, which invests in tech start-ups doing work with potential military uses, recommended that the US use Cfius to cut off the flow of foreign investment into early-stage tech companies and look at outbound investments as well.

支持強化CFIUS正是美國政府的一種打擊方式。在去年的一份報告中，五角大樓的一個風險投資部門（投資產品具有潛在軍事用途的科技初創企業）建議，美國利用CFIUS切斷外國投資流入處於早期階段的科技公司，同時審查對外投資。

The White House has made an attack on Beijing’s intellectual property regime the centrepiece of its approach towards China. It launched an investigation last summer into intellectual property theft and Chinese policies that pressure companies to transfer technology in return for market access. That probe could prepare the ground for new tariffs and measures to curtail Chinese investment in US sectors in which Beijing will not allow reciprocal investments.

白宮已將對北京方面的知識產權制度的攻擊作爲其對華政策的中心部分。去年夏天，白宮發起了一項針對知識產權盜竊和中國施壓企業轉讓技術以換取市場準入的政策的調查。這一調查可能爲徵收新關稅和出臺措施限制中國在美國一些領域投資鋪平道路（因爲對於這些領域，中國不允許美國進行互惠投資）。