歐盟走向保護主義乃不智之舉
Worries about the effect of trade and globalisation on workers are a staple of politics in the US and Europe.
擔心貿易和全球化對勞動者的影響成了歐美政治的家常便飯。
So it is perhaps unsurprising that the EU, with an eye on China and particularly on steel, is planning to make it easier to block subsidised or dumped imports with emergency tariffs.
因此或許毫不意外的是，關注中國、尤其是中國鋼鐵的歐盟(EU)，正計劃讓通過徵收緊急關稅阻止受補貼或傾銷的進口產品入境變得更容易一些。
That it is unsurprising does not mean it is wise.
不意外並不意味着這是明智之舉。
There is no doubt Chinese production, thanks to state-subsidised overcapacity, is pushing down the global price of steel.
確實，拜政府補貼的過剩產能所賜，中國生產出來的鋼鐵正在壓低全球鋼鐵價格。
Yet the advanced countries should accept that putting up barriers simply disadvantages other industries and interrupts the vital global supply chains on which modern trading economies depend.
然而，發達國家應意識到，設置壁壘會對其他行業不利，並干擾現代貿易經濟所依賴的至關重要的全球供應鏈。
The EU’s probable change of policy is designed to sidestep a looming problem of whether China should be accorded market economy status, which would make it harder to impose antidumping or countervailing (anti-subsidy) duties on Chinese imports.
歐盟可能採取的政策變化旨在繞過中國是否應被賦予市場經濟地位這一日益逼近的問題，如果中國取得這一地位，其他國家將更難對進口自中國的商品徵收反傾銷稅或反補貼稅。
When assessing such duties on a non-market economy, the EU is permitted to use costs from a supposedly analogous third country to calculate how big the penalties can be.
在評估針對非市場經濟體徵收的這類關稅時，歐盟可以利用被認爲類似的第三國成本來計算懲罰的力度。
China argues — and many, though not all, trade lawyers agree — that it automatically acquires market economy status next month as part of the agreement when it joined the World Trade Organisation 15 years ago.
中國主張並得到很多（儘管不是全部）貿易律師認同的是，作爲15年前中國加入世貿組織(WTO)的協議的一部分，中國將在下月自動獲得市場經濟地位。
Rather than decline to grant that designation and invite a WTO dispute, the EU Commission proposes abolishing the distinction between market and non-market economies and instead allowing the EU leeway to pick data to support its case.
歐盟委員會(European Commission)並未拒絕賦予中國市場經濟地位進而引發WTO爭端，而是提議廢除市場經濟與非市場經濟的區別，讓歐盟自由選擇數據支撐其徵稅理由。
The result could well be the imposition of US-style antidumping tariffs reaching well above 100 per cent, and a consequent noticeable rise in the internal EU price of commodities such as steel.
結果很有可能是徵收美國那種遠遠高於100%的反傾銷關稅，繼而導致歐盟內部鋼鐵等大宗商品價格顯著上漲。
This is not a positive development.
這並非一種有利的變化。
If EU countries want to build infrastructure or develop world-beating manufacturing companies, they will benefit from a cheaper domestic price of steel.
如果歐盟國家希望建設基礎設施或發展世界級製造企業，它們將從較爲廉價的國內鋼鐵價格中受益。
The more that global value chains snake around the world, finding the most efficient place to produce, the more that putting tariffs in the way disadvantages the economy that imposes the restrictions.
全球價值鏈在世界蔓延得越長（從而找到最高效的生產地），徵收關稅加以阻礙越會對實施這種限制的經濟體不利。
Economic change is wrenching, particularly for industries with regional concentration, but the future for developed economies lies with users, not producers, despite closures being savage blows to steel towns.
經濟變革是痛苦的，尤其是對於區域集中型的行業而言，但發達經濟體的未來在於消費者，而非生產者，儘管工廠關閉將對鋼鐵城鎮造成嚴重打擊。
Whether or not this situation contributed significantly to president-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, the hollowing-out of basic manufacturing has created intense resentment among affected communities.
不管這種形勢是否對美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的選舉勝利做出了巨大貢獻，基礎製造業空心化都導致受影響社羣產生了強烈的憤恨情緒。
But making it harder for new industries to emerge by increasing the price of basic commodities only delays the transition.
但通過提升基礎大宗商品的價格加大新行業出現的難度，只會推遲轉型。
The forces of protection within the EU have been growing in strength, and it was the recent conversion of Germany to the cause that will probably tip the balance.
歐盟內部保護主義力量的強度一直在加大，特別是德國最近也轉向保護主義，這很可能會顛覆局面。
The UK has generally led the fight to restrain antidumping duties, despite domestic criticism over the threatened Port Talbot steel plant in Wales.
儘管英國國內對威爾士塔爾伯特港的鋼鐵廠面臨威脅感到不滿，但英國基本上一直走在抵制反傾銷稅的前沿。
With Britain leaving the EU, however, resistance is crumbling.
然而，隨着英國脫離歐盟，抵抗力正在減弱。
The new EU policy on antidumping and anti-subsidy duties is a bleak foreshadowing of a Europe in which the defenders of free trade are either switching sides, like Germany, or leaving the field, like the UK.
新的歐盟反傾銷和反補貼關稅政策是歐洲悲觀前景的預兆，自由貿易的維護者要麼會像德國那樣改變立場，要麼會像英國那樣離開歐盟。
It may bring some short-term political relief to governments whose voters are complaining about globalisation.
對於那些選民正抱怨全球化的政府而言，保護主義可能會帶來一些短期的政治壓力緩和。
In the longer term, though, it will do nothing to build the kind of modern, profitable sectors that will lead European economic growth.
然而，較長期而言，這無助於打造將引領歐洲經濟增長的現代盈利產業。
