百勝剝離中國業務有什麼好處
First comes the gratification, then the remorse. But does the cycle familiar to Yum Brands customers also apply to its investors?
先是滿足感，然後是懊悔心。這種對於百勝(Yum Brands)顧客來說非常熟悉的循環，也適用於其投資者嗎？
The owner of KFC has decided to split off its troubled China business, leaving two separately traded companies. The logical and potentially rewarding move comes with the chance of a less savory aftertaste.
肯德基(KFC)的母公司決定剝離陷入困境的中國業務，分成兩個獨立上市的公司。該公司做出這個合理且可能有回報的舉動時，可能會帶來不那麼美妙的回味。
Yum will split off its China unit entirely, according to a person familiar with the situation, listing it wherever it garners the most interest from investors. While that is what the activist investor Keith Meister wanted even before he was added to Yum’s board last week, it’s also a no-brainer. Yum’s own-and-operate model in China jars with its almost entirely franchise-based business elsewhere.
據一位知情人士透露，百勝將徹底剝離中國業務，在能吸引最多投資者興趣的地方上市。雖然上週才加入百勝董事會的維權投資者基思·梅斯特爾(Keith Meister)早就希望這麼做，但這可以說是一個顯而易見的選擇。百勝在中國施行的“擁有並經營”模式與其他地方几乎完全以特許經營爲基礎的業務不協調。
After the split, the two parts will have very different flavors. Suppose the China division can increase its number of stores by half, to 10,000, and create $1.4 million a year in revenue from each one, as it did before food scares in China last year hurt its sales. A Reuters Breakingviews analysis suggests that the unit could be worth $27 billion on a debt-free basis, three-quarters of the whole Yum enterprise value.
拆分之後，這兩家公司將有不同的特色。預計中國公司能夠店鋪數增加一半，達到1萬家，每家每年創造140萬美元的收入，達到去年中國食品恐慌影響其銷售額之前的水平。路透熱點透視(Breakinviews)的一篇分析文章顯示，中國公司在無債的基礎上可能價值270億美元，相當於整個百勝集團市值的四分之三。
The more mature Western-world business, meanwhile, could be slathered in debt. Yum, the owner of the KFC and Pizza Hut brands, might be able to extract a 3 percent license fee from its expanded China affiliate, giving it $420 million a year in mostly stable income. Add that to last year’s non-Chinese earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, of $1.1 billion, assume there’s room for borrowing worth three times Ebitda, and there is scope for a one-time debt-funded payout to investors of more than $4 billion.
與此同時，比較成熟的西方國家業務可能大量舉債。百勝——肯德基和必勝客(Pizza Hut)的母公司——或許能從擴張後的中國公司收取3%的許可證費用，每年獲得基本上穩定的4.2億美元收入。加上這部分收入後，去年非中國業務的Ebitda（利息、稅、折舊、攤銷前盈利收入）達到11億美元，假設還有可以獲得三倍Ebitda的借款的空間，就有一次性向投資者舉債回報逾40億美元的餘地。
Despite this, the $32 billion Yum stock rose just 4 percent after the split was announced on Tuesday. That may be because any separation could be at least a year away. It may also reflect the China risk that will remain with the Western business. The American unit will still depend on fees from China — increasingly so if growth plans there pan out. Yet it will not be able to control them. Yum’s spinoff is sensible, but not a magic recipe.
儘管如此，週二宣佈拆分計劃後，市值320億美元的百勝集團的股價僅僅上漲了4%。這可能是因爲任何拆分計劃需要至少一年的時間才能完成。這可能也反映了中國風險將會繼續存在於西方業務中。美國公司仍將依賴來自中國的許可費——如果增長計劃在中國取得成功，那就會愈發依賴。而美國公司將無法控制它們。百勝集團的拆分舉措非常明智，但不是一份魔力食譜。
