Lex專欄 高通不應剝離芯片業務
For a mature tech company, the trick of the trade is to choose what to exit, and when. Qualcomm, founded 30 years ago, has made some smart exits, such as selling its handset business in 1999 and its infrastructure business that same year. Is it now time for the company to bow out of its chipset business, too?
對於一家成熟的高科技企業來說，交易中的難點往往在於放棄什麼以及什麼時候放棄。30年前成立的高通(Qualcomm)曾做出一些明智的放棄決定。比如，1999年該公司出售了手機業務，並在同一年出售了基建業務。那麼，該公司現在退出芯片業務是否正當其時呢？
Qualcomm has openly considered this idea in the past, and recently investors have started clamouring for it as well. The most valuable part of Qualcomm is considered by analysts to be its licensing business, which supplies most of the IP for 3G and 4G wireless in smartphones. These licensing royalties account for just a quarter of revenue, but two-thirds of profits. Meanwhile Qualcomm’s chipset business brings in the bulk of revenue but less than half of profits. The businesses can complement each other when a new wireless communication standard is being introduced: for example Qualcomm can develop the IP behind a new standard like LTE (Long Term Evolution), and then simultaneously develop chipsets that incorporate LTE to prove how the technology works. But this synergy matters less at a time like the present, when Qualcomm already licenses a large majority of global handset, Credit Suisse points out.
高通過去曾公開表示考慮過這一想法，而最近投資者同樣也開始大聲呼籲這麼做。分析師認爲，高通最有價值的業務是其許可證業務，智能手機的3G和4G無線技術使用的大多數知識產權都是由該部門提供的。這些許可證帶來的版權費只佔高通營收的四分之一，卻佔了其利潤的三分之二。與此同時，高通的芯片業務爲其帶來了大部分營收，帶來的盈利卻不到一半。在引入新的無線通信標準時，這兩種業務之間是能夠相互補充的。比如，對於長期演進(Long Term Evolution，簡稱LTE)這樣的新技術標準，高通可以研發其幕後的種種專利技術，並同步開發植入LTE技術的芯片，以證明這種技術的有效性。然而，瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)指出，在如今這樣的時代，高通已經在爲全球絕大部分手機發放許可證，這種協同效應已不那麼重要了。Breaking up a company can make sense if one part of the company is weighing the other down, or if different segments have different growth trajectories. But in this case, both of Qualcomm’s business are facing similar headwinds, which has helped drive its share price down 17 per cent in the past 12 months. The licensing business has suffered declining revenues and profits, due to falling prices for smartphones (royalties are paid on the price of the phone) and to smaller royalty rates (such as the recent settlement in China). The chipset business has also seen growth slow, and is under pressure from increased competition from companies like MediaTek. Nevertheless chipsets are Qualcomm’s only source of profit growth.
拆分一家企業的合理原因，要麼是由於該企業的某一業務限制了其他業務的發展，要麼是由於不同業務擁有不同的增長軌跡。但就高通而言，芯片業務和許可證業務都面臨着類似的不利局面。在過去12個月裏，這種不利局面令其股價下跌了17%。高通的許可證業務遭遇了營收及利潤的下滑，原因一方面是由於智能手機的價格正在下跌（高通的版權費是以手機價格的一定比例收取的），另一方面則是由於版權費的抽成比例降低（比如中國最近的和解案）。與此同時，高通芯片業務也出現了增長放緩的現象，而且來自聯發科技(Mediatek)等企業的競爭，使其面臨越來越大的壓力。不過，芯片業務目前仍是高通唯一的盈利增長來源。
Sure, the company might want to consider selling if a willing buyer for the chipset business came along at the right price (CS puts the enterprise value of the chipset business at $43bn). And Qualcomm’s shares do look cheap right now; its enterprise value is 15 times 2014 free cash flow, near five-year lows. But splitting up would not help fix the challenges, or the valuation, of either the chipset or the licensing business. In times of trial, Qualcomm’s businesses may in fact be better together.
當然，如果出現願以合理價格收購芯片業務的買家（瑞士信貸估計該業務的企業價值爲430億美元），高通也許會想要考慮賣掉該業務。高通股價目前看起來確實很便宜，其企業價值只有2014年自由現金流的15倍，接近5年來的最低點。不過，拆分高通不會幫助芯片業務或許可證業務解決所面臨的挑戰，也無助於修復它們的估值。在面臨考驗的時期，事實上高通各業務部門在一起可能更好一些。
