沙特單方面宣告打贏石油油價戰

Saudi Arabia says its strategy of squeezing high-cost rivals such as US shale producers is succeeding, as the world’s largest crude exporter seeks to reassert itself as the dominant force in the global oil market.

沙特阿拉伯宣佈，其擠壓高成本競爭對手（如美國頁岩油生產商）的戰略正取得成功。世界最大原油出口國正尋求在全球石油市場重新確立自己作爲主導力量的地位。

The kingdom’s production rose to a record high of 10.3m barrels a day in April and there is no sign that it plans to reverse its policy at next month’s meeting of Opec, the producers’ cartel.

該國的產量在4月升至每日1030萬桶的歷史新高，同時沒有跡象表明，它計劃在產油國卡特爾——石油輸出國組織（Opec，中文簡稱歐佩克）下月開會時逆轉政策。

“There is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months has deterred investors away from expensive oil including US shale, deep offshore and heavy oils,” a Saudi official told the Financial Times in Riyadh, giving a rare insight into the kingdom’s thinking on oil strategy.

“無疑，過去幾個月的價格下滑已經使投資者不敢靠近昂貴的石油，包括美國頁岩油、深海油田和重油，”一名沙特官員在利雅得對英國《金融時報》表示，此言讓外界難得地洞察該國在石油戰略上的思路。

The International Energy Agency, the world’s leading forecaster, released data yesterday backing up the Saudi position. It said that with the number of rigs running in the US plunging 60 per cent in response to lower oil prices, US shale production had “buckled” in April, “bringing a multiyear winning streak to an apparent close”.

世界領先的預報機構——國際能源署(IEA)昨日發佈的數據支持沙特的表態。該機構稱，鑑於較低油價已導致美國運行中的鑽井數量暴跌60%，美國頁岩油生產已在4月“撐不下去”，“持續多年的連勝記錄明顯終止”。

But the IEA also cautioned that it would be “premature” to suggest that Opec had “won the battle for market share”. It said global crude supply was growing, even from high-cost areas such as Brazil, as well as from other Opec member states such as Iran and Iraq.

但IEA也告誡稱，要說歐佩克已經“打贏了市場份額爭奪戰”，現在“還不到時候”。該機構表示，全球原油供應量在增長，除了其他歐佩克成員國（如伊朗和伊拉克）以外，就連巴西等高成本地區也在增產。

However, the Saudi official said he expected the kingdom to maintain its dominance of global energy, despite the growth of alternatives to fossil fuels and competition from rival oil producers within Opec and beyond. “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil,” he said. “We want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.”

然而，上述沙特官員表示，他預計該國將保持其在全球能源市場的主導地位，儘管化石燃料的替代品不斷增長，儘管歐佩克內外的產油國與之展開競爭。“沙特阿拉伯希望延長石油時代，”他表示。“我們希望石油繼續被用作一種主要能源，我們希望成爲能源的主要生產國。”

He was speaking nearly six months after Opec decided to keep output steady rather than play its traditional role of cutting production to support prices. Saudi officials later explained that the policy was designed to put pressure on producers that require a higher oil price to be economic such as US shale drillers and companies operating in Brazil’s offshore fields.

他發表此言近6個月前，歐佩克決定保持產量穩定，而不扮演其傳統角色，即減產以支撐價格。沙特官員們後來解釋說，該政策意在對那些需要更高油價才具有經濟可行性的生產者施壓，如美國的頁岩鑽探企業和巴西海上油田的作業企業。

Expectations are already rising that the market could soon start to tighten by midyear, which the IEA identified yesterday as one of the reasons for the recent rally in the oil price. Having crashed from $115 a barrel last June to almost $45 in January, Brent, the international crude benchmark, is now back up at around $68. The official said the price of oil had now “reached a bottom” and it “doesn’t look like it is going back”.

各方已經在不斷增強的預期是，石油市場可能很快（比如到年中）開始趨緊。昨日IEA認定這正是近來油價反彈的原因之一。國際原油基準布倫特(Brent)從去年6月的每桶115美元跌至今年1月的每桶45美元后，目前已回升至每桶68美元左右。上述沙特官員表示，油價已經“觸底”，而且“看起來不像會回落”。

But US shale producers would disagree that Saudi Arabia has succeeded in squeezing them. The US oil industry has slowed down but EOG Resources, the country’s largest shale oil producer, recently forecast a return to “double-digit” production growth if the US benchmark — West Texas Intermediate — rises to $65 per barrel or higher. It is currently trading at around $61.

但是，美國的頁岩油生產商不同意沙特已成功擠壓他們的說法。美國石油業有所放緩，但該國最大的頁岩油生產商依歐格資源公司(EOG Resources)最近預測，只要美國原油基準西德克薩斯中質油(West Texas Intermediate)升至每桶65美元或更高（目前在61美元上下），美國石油業就將恢復“兩位數”產量增長。

The Saudi official admitted “increased efficiencies” were likely as US shale and other producers adjusted to lower prices. He also said the impact of the price rebound was still “unknown” and “there is not yet any clarity on the US supply curve and drivers”.

上述沙特官員承認，隨着美國頁岩油企業和其他生產者針對較低油價進行調整，“提高效率”是很有可能的。他還表示，價格反彈的影響仍然是“未知的”，同時“美國的供應曲線和驅動因素仍不明朗”。