中國出境遊客支出近5000億美元

Investors in search of an emerging consumer story need look no further than the remarkable growth in the scale and spending of Chinese outbound tourists.

尋找新興市場消費者故事的投資者無需費力，他們只要看看中國出境遊客人數和消費的迅猛增長就夠了。

China Confidential, a Financial Times research service, estimates that total spending by Chinese travellers on outbound trips hit Rmb3.1tn ($498bn) in 2014. Spending by Chinese tourists is now greater than total spending on household consumption of around $436bn in Indonesia and $442bn in Turkey. And this figure is even more remarkable given that the Chinese outbound tourism trend is at a relatively early stage. Although the number of Chinese outbound trips grew 20 per cent year-on-year to 117m in 2014, according to official tourism statistics, less than 6 per cent of the population hold a passport.

據英國《金融時報》旗下研究機構《中國投資參考》(China Confidential)估算，2014年中國遊客在出境遊期間的總支出達到3.1萬億元人民幣（合4980億美元）。也就是說，如今中國出境遊客的支出大於某些國家的家庭消費總支出，比如印尼（4360億美元）和土耳其（4420億美元）。令這個數字更加可圈可點的是，中國出境旅遊發展趨勢仍處在一個相對早期的階段。雖然中國出境遊人數在2014年同比增長了20%，達到1.17億人次，但根據官方旅遊統計，目前只有不到6%的中國公民持有護照。

China Confidential’s estimate for total spending is higher than the official estimate of $200bn, which excludes spending on flights, visas and other items. But the figures are in line with those from other external sources. They closely match estimates of non-educational spending by Chinese visitors to the US, for example, by the US National Tourism Office.

《中國投資參考》估算的總支出高於2000億美元的官方估算，後者不包括航班、簽證和其他一些項目上的支出。但這些數字與其他外部來源的數字基本相符。比如，在中國赴美遊客非教育支出這一項上，它們就與美國國家旅遊局(National Tourism Office)估算的數字非常接近。

However, while the amount of current spending and the potential for growth remain enormous, there are signs that many travellers are starting to cut back on spending while overseas as their priorities change.

然而，儘管當前消費總額和增長潛力仍非常巨大，但有跡象表明，隨着個人優先事項的改變，許多中國旅客開始在境外旅遊期間削減開支。

In particular, China Confidential’s latest annual report on outbound tourism, released this week and based on a survey of 1,288 outbound tourists and 40 travel agencies nationwide, identified a 6.2 per cent year-on-year slowdown in per capita spending on travellers’ outbound trips during 2015, following a 9.4 per cent decline between 2013 and 2014. The most recent contraction was led by an 8 per cent year-on-year decline in spending on shopping.

本週發佈的最新《中國投資參考》出境旅遊年度報告基於對全中國1288名出境遊客和40家旅行社進行的一項調查。報告發現，2015年出境遊客人均支出同比下降了6.2%，而2013年至2014年人均支出已經下降了9.4%。最新的收縮主要是由購物支出同比下降8%導致的。

This slowdown was particularly marked among high-income travellers. Those with annual household incomes in excess of Rmb350,000 said they spent an average of Rmb16,440 on shopping on their most recent trip, down 34.4 per cent from the previous year, although still accounting for a sizeable 34.3 per cent of their total spending, compared with 44.2 per cent in China Confidential’s survey last year.

這種放緩在高收入遊客中尤其明顯。家庭年收入超過35萬元人民幣的人士表示，他們最近一次旅遊期間在購物上平均花費了16440元人民幣，比上年下滑34.4%，儘管購物支出仍佔他們總支出的相當大一部分（34.3%）。相比之下，《中國投資參考》去年調查發現的購物支出佔比爲44.2%。

The lower spend on shopping is in part related to domestic conditions. The general macroeconomic slowdown may have prompted some travellers to rein in their spending during overseas trips, while Beijing’s anti-corruption drive has resulted in a marked reduction in gifting purchases among wealthier travellers in particular.

減少購物支出在一定程度上與中國國內形勢有關。宏觀經濟整體放緩可能促使一些遊客在境外遊期間收斂開銷，而北京方面的反腐敗鬥爭已明顯抑制了禮品購買，尤其是對比較富裕的遊客而言。

However, it would be wrong to view this slowdown purely in macro or policy terms. Instead, lower spending on shopping is part of a broader shift in spending priorities, with wealthier travellers increasingly prioritising experiences over luxury purchases. On average, travellers in the high-income cohort spent 31.1 per cent more than they had a year earlier on entertainment and 78.6 per cent more on other services including car rental and excursions. Those making purchases are increasingly opting for more affordable or lesser known brands, echoing trends seen domestically.

然而，單純從宏觀或政策角度來解釋這一放緩是不對的。實際上，減少購物支出是支出優先順序全面轉變的一部分，比如較富裕的遊客日益把“體驗”置於購買奢侈品之上。平均而言，高收入階層遊客的娛樂支出同比增長31.1%，在其他服務（包括汽車租賃和當地短途遊）上的支出同比增長78.6%。購物的遊客也日趨選擇更實惠或不太知名的品牌，與中國國內出現的趨勢不謀而合。

These shifting priorities should broaden the potential beneficiaries of the Chinese outbound trend beyond the luxury retailers that have been the chief winners to date. Rising spending on experiences should benefit hospitality, entertainment and tourism service industries to a far greater extent than in the past, when many Chinese overseas travellers scrimped on hotels, food and activities to spend more at the shops. And the beneficiaries will not just be the big-name hoteliers, restaurateurs and tourist attractions, with many travellers seeking to ditch the growing crowds of fellow countrymen and venture off the beaten track.

支出優先順序的這種轉變，應當會拓寬中國出境遊趨勢的潛在受益者羣體，使其不僅限於迄今的主要贏家——奢侈品零售商。在體驗上的支出不斷增長，應當會讓酒店、娛樂和旅遊服務行業的受益程度大大超過以往（以往中國出境遊客往往在酒店、餐飲和活動上精打細算，以便省下錢來在商店購物）。而且受益者將不僅限於大牌的酒店、餐廳和旅遊景點，因爲很多出境遊客想避開越來越多同樣來自中國的旅遊團，到熱門旅遊路線以外的地方去看一看。

China’s outbound journey has plenty of mileage left to run. Understanding rapidly shifting tastes and spending patterns will be key to capitalising on this long-term growth story.

中國出境旅遊還有極大發展空間。理解快速變化的品味和消費模式，將是利用這一長期增長故事獲利的關鍵。