股票回購狂潮會在今年終結嗎
Many forces have fueled the bull market we have witnessed over the past six years, but share repurchases are at the top of the list. Driven by low interest rates and an economy rife with uncertainty, Corporate America is awash with cash. Rather than spend that money on internal investments that might not pan out, companies have instead decided to return that money to shareholders by buying their own stock.
我們在過去六年看到的牛市是在多種力量作用下形成的，但股票回購是其中最重要的因素。由於低利率和充滿不確定感的經濟環境，美國公司手握大量現金。各大公司覺得，與其把錢花在未必能成功的內部投資上，還不如通過回購股票來回饋股東。
The debate over whether it’s better for firms to send money to shareholders in the form of buybacks or in the form of dividends has gone on for decades. But we can all agree that companies ramping up their share repurchasing has buoyed stock prices. This chart from Bianco Research shows how buybacks have soared since the end of the recession and are now close to all-time highs:
回購股票和支付股息，究竟哪一種是更好的回饋方式？這個爭論已經持續了好幾十年。但我們都同意，各大公司一窩蜂地回購股票，已經顯著地提振了股價。這張由研究公司Bianco Research製作的圖表，爲我們展示了回購股票是如何導致股價在經濟衰退結束後持續飆升，如今已接近歷史最高點的。You can view this trend as a good sign or a worrying one. On the one hand, companies should only buy their shares when they are confident that the stock has a lot of room to grow, as buying overpriced shares is a terrible use of shareholder money. But, as Will Becker, an analyst with Behind the Numbers, puts in his latest report to clients, history shows that executives and directors plan buybacks at the worst times. He writes:
這一趨勢既可以被解讀爲好的跡象，也可以被看作一種令人擔憂的狀況。一方面，一家公司只應該在非常確定自己的股票有很大漲幅空間時回購股票，因爲購買價格過高的股票可不是利用股東金錢的明智方式。但正如Behind the Numbers公司分析師比爾?貝克爾最近爲客戶撰寫的報告所指出的那樣，歷史顯示高管和董事們往往會選擇最差的回購時機。他寫道：
Buybacks are typically initiated in good times when stock prices are high…. Corporations end up purchasing their own stock at inflated prices, only to have many of these same shares then redeemed by management as compensation committees increasingly hand out these perks in good times.
回購往往發生在經濟景氣，股價已經很高的時候。公司最終會以虛高的價格買回自己的股票，但鑑於越來越多的薪酬委員會在經濟景氣時分發這些紅利，所以這些股票有很大一部分最終只是被管理層贖回了。Nevertheless, it appears that Corporate America plans to stick to its buyback strategy. Goldman Sachs equity strategist David Kosten says that share repurchases will increase by 18% this year, to more than $700 billion. Becker, however, thinks there’s reason to believe that 2015, at least for some companies, might be the year the good ship buyback finally runs ashore.
然而，美國公司似乎仍然計劃堅持回購策略。高盛公司證券策略師大衛?科斯滕表示，今年股票回購的價值還將增長18%，達到7000億美元以上。不過貝克爾認爲，有理由相信2015年至少會有一些公司的美好回購計劃最終擱淺。Writes Becker, “Frankly we believe free cash flow for many of these companies could soon encounter a number of headwinds, thereby making it more difficult for them to expand their buyback programs.”
貝克爾寫道：“坦白說，我們認爲許多公司的現金流很快就將遭遇困境，這會讓他們擴大回購的舉動變得十分艱難。”
