風投資金在年五大趨勢

Each year I compile a list of predictions from a venture capitalist perspective—with the goal of providing a practical look into what to expect in the year ahead. With a lot of talk around a bubble and with companies in all sectors continuing rapid-scale and innovation, below are five mega-trends I anticipate will make a big impact in 2015.

每年，我都會從風投資本家的角度做出一系列預測，目的是對來年進行務實的展望和預測。許多人都在談論泡沫，各行各業的企業都在不斷迅速擴張和創新。在這種情況下，我對將在2015年產生重大影響的五大趨勢進行了預測，具體如下。

1. The Internet-of-Things will be less about the things:In 2015, it will be about the software, not the hardware. Last year we saw feverish M&A activity in hardware but, next year, I expect to see the IoT battleground shift to software. I also predict that hardware IoT will prove out to become much more of a commodity. We already are seeing some of this played out in the smartwatch world with Apple AAPL -0.07% ,FitBit and others focused on matching features and commoditized offerings. In 2015, I expect IoT software and services to take center stage.

1. 物聯網將不再那麼側重於“物”：2015年屬於軟件，而不是硬件。去年，硬件領域的併購活動熱火朝天；但我預計，明年物聯網戰場將轉移至軟件行業。我還認爲，硬件物聯網在很大程度上終將轉變爲一種商品。智能手錶領域已經出現了這樣的情況，蘋果公司（Apple）、FitBit和其他一些製造商都在重點關注類似的功能和產品的商品化。對於2015年，我的預測是物聯網軟件和服務將佔據中央舞臺。

2. Online education will graduate to higher valuations:Online is at a true inflection point and will accelerate. Just this month, Stanford’s Graduate School of Business took its investment in online education to a whole new level by announcing that a new program for company executives will be delivered entirely by way of the Internet. According to Global Industry Analyst, online education in 2015 will reach $107 billion, which will represent a doubling in just three years. There are many incumbent institutions now offering online curriculum, and several newer companies with innovative models making incredible progress like Udemy*, Coursera, Lynda and PluralSight. I wouldn’t be surprised if these garnered “unicorn” valuations and grew even faster.

2.在線教育的價值將逐步上升：在線教育正處於真正的轉折點，而且將加速發展。就在這個月，斯坦福商學院（Stanford’s Graduate School of Business）的在線教育投資邁上了一個新臺階——該學院針對企業高管推出了一門完全通過互聯網教授的課程。市場研究機構Global Industry Analyst估算，2015年在線教育市場的規模將達到1070億美元，這個數字在短短三年之內翻了一番。許多老牌教育機構現在都推出了網絡課程，Udemy*、Coursera、Lynda和PluralSight等剛剛涉足這個領域的企業則藉助創新模式取得了難以置信的發展。即使這些公司的估值上升到“獨角獸”級別（10億美元）並以更快的速度增長，我也不會感到意外。

3. New generation of marketplaces will surpass value of Apple:“Marketplaces 2.0” is a theme that will thrive as a mega-venture category. We witnessed major financing including sky-high valuations from LendingClub* ($3.6 billion), Airbnb ($10 billion in April) and Grubhub ($1.9 billion in April). Emerging marketplaces like Minted and Udemy are now real contenders capable of challenging the last generation of marketplaces like Craigslist and eBay. I believe that within just five years, the public valuations of all major online marketplaces like Etsy, LendingClub, Udemy, Minted*, Grubhub, Zillow Z -0.31% , and Airbnb will together approach and perhaps surpass Apple’s valuation today, and that is not even counting Alibaba BABA 0.03% . This dynamic will give way to the birth of the “Marketplaces 2.0” era, which could drive venture returns and improve employment markets.

3.新一代網絡市場的價值將超過蘋果公司：Marketplaces 2.0主題將在風投界大行其道。估值極高的公司，比如P2P融資平臺LendingClub*（36億美元）、房屋租賃網站Airbnb（4月份估值100億美元）和訂餐網站Grubhub（4月份估值19億美元），都已進行了大規模融資。Minted*和Udemy等新生力量已經有能力挑戰Craigslist和eBay等老一代網絡市場，併成爲後者真正的競爭對手。我相信，包括Etsy、LendingClub、Udemy、Minted、Grubhub、Zillow和Airbnb在內所有主要網絡企業的市值將在5年內接近甚至超過現在的蘋果公司——這還沒有把阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba）計算在內。這種態勢將催生Marketplaces 2.0時代，從而提高風投回報水平並改善就業市場狀況。

4. The NASDAQ willflatline… and that’s okay:In 2014 the NASDAQ index created a massive amount of chatter in the investor blogosphere around talks of a “Bubble.” For 2015, I actually expect the NASDAQ to be relatively flat and may even be slightly lower. However, the real issue we will face in 2015 is volatility. This lackluster performance in 2015 will not affect early-stage venture as much, but it may put a more moderate tone to potential IPO’s. Having said that, great companies will continue to IPO in 2015 but the bar will be high. I see this as a very nice and gentle way to let “air out” of a perceived asset bubble, and much better than having a complete burst. While this may be viewed as negative, I view this as a positive in 2015 and perhaps necessary to keep a healthy and robust market of high-quality IPO’s going.

4.納斯達克走勢將趨平……這沒關係：2014年，投資者們在自己的博客裏大談特談納斯達克指數（NASDAQ index），主題是“泡沫”。實際上，對於2015年，我認爲該指數的走勢將相對平穩，甚至可能略有下跌。不過，2015年的真正問題在於市場波動。這種司空見慣的現象對早期風投不會有很大影響，但可能會降低市場對潛在首發上市公司的熱情。儘管如此，一些不錯的企業仍將在2015年開展首次公開募股，只是上市的門檻會很高。在我看來，這是一件好事，它能以非常溫和的方式壓縮人們所認爲的資產泡沫，這要比泡沫徹底破裂好得多。雖然人們可能認爲此舉將帶來不利影響，但我覺得這是2015年的一個有利因素，而且可能是保持高質量IPO市場健康和穩健的必要條件。

5. Bollywood is back; Brazil misses the goal:For international and emerging market ventures, 2015 will be the year of India. Brazil, Russia, India, and China all had been developing and maturing very impressive Internet properties in the last few years, and we saw some of those hit the IPO market in 2014. Alibaba certainly proved that for China. India had a very positive election, which should bolster confidence and allow the country to thrive in 2015. There are many great technology companies there that will take advantage of this positive landscape. Companies like Flipkart, Snapeal, Quikr* and Yatra* are companies to watch. On the other hand, Brazil was not as lucky as India in terms of its Presidential election and political landscape. I predict that Brazil will struggle in the coming year. Meanwhile, we could potentially see some major India IPO’s in the coming years. As a result, there will be some increased and renewed attention on India from the global venture community.

5.印度將回歸人們的視野，巴西將達不到目標：對國際和新興市場風投來說，2015年將屬於印度。過去幾年中，巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國互聯網企業的增長和成熟都非常引人注目，其中一些公司還在2014年首發上市。阿里巴巴當然證明了中國在這方面的成就。印度的大選結果非常有利，應該有助於提振市場信心，並讓印度在2015年繁榮發展。很多不錯的印度科技企業都將利用這一有利環境。可以關注的公司有Flipkart、Snapeal、Quikr*和Yatra*。另一方面，巴西在總統選舉和政治局勢方面就不像印度那麼幸運。我預測2015年巴西將陷入困境。同時，今後幾年印度可能出現一些重大IPO。因此，國際風投界對印度的關注程度可能重新有所提升。

Overall, 2015 will be an important year for progress in key geographies and sectors. However, volatility and talk of bubbles will make this a potentially difficult year for those who may not have the stomach for fluctuations.

總之，2015年對關鍵地區和行業的發展來說很重要。不過，如果企業無力應對震盪所帶來的影響，那麼市場波動和泡沫論有可能讓企業在2015年一籌莫展。（財富中文網）

Sergio Monsalve (@vcserge) is a partner with Norwest Venture Partners, where he focuses on early-stage and growth investments in e-commerce, consumerized SaaS, consumer finance and educational technologies. Companies marked with * in this post are NVP portfolio companies.

塞爾吉奧o蒙薩爾維是硅谷風投公司Norwest Venture Partners的合夥人，專注於投資早期以及成長型電子商務、消費型軟件即服務、消費金融和教育科技公司。本文中標註*的公司則表示該公司獲得了Norwest Venture Partners的投資。