科學家預測將要發生的十場特大自然災害(下)
hquake-Tsunami Split--Oregon, 2015-2065
5.2015——2065年，俄勒岡州地震海嘯Through the joint efforts of more than 150 volunteer experts, the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission predicts that an 8.0–9.0 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami will occur off the coast of Oregon within the next 50 years. The big questions are: When will it exactly occur, and will Oregon be prepared?
通過150餘位志願者專家的共同努力，俄勒岡州地震安全政策諮詢委員會預測，在接下來的五十年內，俄勒岡州近海將會發生一場8.0——9.0級的地震。而最大的問題在於：地震究竟什麼時候發生，以及俄勒岡州是否能做好全面準備。
The possible source of this catastrophic earthquake-tsunami split is the Cascadia subduction zone, a 1,287-kilometer (800 mi) crack in the Earth's crust 97 kilometers (60 mi) offshore from Oregon. The Juan de Fuca and North American continental tectonic plates create this subduction zone, which is considered the "quietest subduction zone in the world" but is currently thought to be hiding one of the biggest seismic events of the century. This occurrence has been predicted since 2010; the Commission now states that it will inevitably occur. This predicted earthquake and tsunami will kill over 10,000 people, possibly splitting apart portions of the West Coast and costing the US $32 billion in damage.
卡斯卡迪亞俯衝帶是一條距俄勒岡州近海岸線97公里（60英尺）的地殼裂縫，全長1287千米（800英里），可能成爲這場災難性地震的震源。胡安德富卡板塊和北美大陸板塊共同創造了這個俯衝帶，它被稱作"世界上最安靜的俯衝帶"。然而現在，它卻藏匿着本世紀最強烈的地震之一。委員會自2010年就已經預言了這場災害；現在他們表態：這場地震已經不可避免。這場預測中的地震海嘯將會造成一萬餘人死亡，可能會使西海岸分崩離析，並給美國帶來320億美元的損失。
Coast Submersion--US, 2050–2100
4.2050-2100年，美國東海岸消失
October 2012's Hurricane Sandy put a lot of cities underwater, and due to its power, it is considered a freak storm that would only occur once every 700 years, according to NASA. However, current sea level trends along the East Coast may leave major cities underwater by 2050.
2012年10月，桑迪颶風侵襲美國，致使很多城市被淹，據美國國家航空航天局稱，這種強勁的颶風700年纔出現一回。然而，按目前東海岸海平面上漲的趨勢，一些大城市在2050年可能會消失。A 2012 study by emeritus professor John Boon of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science claimed that significant changes in sea level along the East Coast from Key West, Florida, to Newfoundland, Canada, started around 1987. His study shows that the sea level is increasing 0.3 millimeters per year. This study dovetails with a US Geological Survey study done by scientists in Florida that states that the sea level of the East Coast is rising three or four times faster than anywhere else in the world. Coastal areas in the northeastern US are currently considered to be more at-risk due to the major property values and built-up coastlines in places like New York City, which may be flooded by 2050. New York City's sea level is expected to increase 79 centimeters (31 in) by 2050, leaving 25 percent of the city in danger of turning into a floodplain. Around 800,000 people live in the target flooding zone, and by 2050, 97 percent of New York City's power plants will be there as well. This is why ex–New York mayor Michael Bloomberg proposed a $20 billion flood system in 2013 for New York City before he left office, but this plan was not put into action.
約翰·布恩是弗吉尼亞海洋研究所的一名退休教授，他在2012年發表的一個研究中稱，自1987年開始，沿着美國東海岸，從佛羅里達的基維斯特島到加拿大紐芬蘭的海平面出現大幅變動，每年上升0.3毫米。他的研究和美國地質調查局所做的一項研究不謀而合，該研究稱東海岸海平面的上升速度是全球其他地方的3至4倍。人們認爲美國東北部的沿海地區面臨着更大的風險，因爲這裏高樓林立，還有像紐約這種海岸線上建築密集的城市，而這些地方也許到2050年就會被潮水淹沒。到2050年，紐約市的海平面預計將上升79釐米（約31英寸），屆時，城市中25%的地方都將成爲澇原。約80萬人生活在這片面臨淹沒的地區，而且到2050年，紐約市97%的發電廠都將建在這裏。所以，紐約前市長邁克爾·彭博在2013年離職前提出花200億美元建設防洪系統，不過這個提議並未付諸行動。est Tsunami Ever--Caribbean, Unknown
3.時間未知，加勒比海史上最大海嘯
Dr. Simon Day of University College London and Dr. Steven Ward from the University of California Santa Cruz predict that the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the Canary Islands will erupt and create the largest tsunami in recorded history. In their jointly written and released paper on the topic in 2001, Dr. Day and Dr. Ward hypothesize that a rupture in the volcano's structure occurred during its last eruption, causing the left side to have become particularly unstable.
倫敦大學學院的西蒙·戴博士和加州大學聖克魯茲分校的史蒂芬·沃德博士都預測，位於加納利羣島的康伯利維亞火山將會噴發，並引起史上最強勁的海嘯。2001年，在他們共同撰寫發表的論文中，戴博士和沃德博士推測，上一次的火山噴發使火山的結構破裂，導致火山左側變得極其不穩定。If Cumbre Vieja were ever to erupt again, its left side would turn into a landslide that would cause the biggest tsunami in the history of man. They have deduced that the monstrous wave will travel at 800 kilometers per hour (500 mph), be 100 meters (330 ft) tall upon first impact with land, and will reach Florida within nine hours of being created. Dr. Day and Dr. Ward predict that tsunamis will hit faraway places such as England, Florida, and the Caribbean. Note that this is a worst-case scenario. If an eruption-caused landslide on Cumbre Vieja were to happen, it's more likely that the entire landmass wouldn't all fall into the sea in one event. A more piecemeal landslide would not cause a record-breaking tsunami. Nevertheless, if you are looking at beachside property in the South, you may wish to reconsider.
如果康伯利維亞火山再次噴發，它的左半部分將會崩裂，從而引發人類史上最大的海嘯。兩位博士推測，屆時海浪將以每小時800千米的速度前進（500英里/小時），浪高100米（約等於330英尺），海嘯形成後將在9小時內抵達佛羅里達州。戴博士和沃德博士還預測，這場海嘯還會波及英格蘭、佛羅里達以及加勒比海等地。請注意，這只是最糟糕的情況。如果火山噴發真的導致火山崩裂，整塊大陸未必都會消失。小面積的崩裂並不會引發超大規模的海嘯。不過，如果你正在尋找南部海濱住宅，那最好還是重新考慮一下。"Big One"--California, 2015-2045
2.2015-2045年，加利福尼亞"超級震"
The US Geological Survey has increased the probability of the likelihood of a magnitude 8.0 or larger earthquake hitting California within the next few decades. The "Big One" refers to the earthquake that many Californians have been waiting for with bated breath for years. The USGS's Third Uniform California Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) predicts earthquake eruptions and states that a magnitude 8.0 earthquake or larger quake has a 7 percent chance of occurring in the next 30 years, at present. The odds of a magnitude 6.5–7.0 earthquake hitting went up 30 percent.
美國地質調查局認爲，加利福尼亞州在未來幾十年內將發生8級或以上地震的機率有所增加。這場"超級震"讓許多加利福尼亞人幾年來都屏氣凝神，不敢怠懈。地質調查局的UCERF3模型，即第三版統一加州地震斷裂預測模型預測了發生地震的可能性，並表明在未來三十年內發生8級或以上地震的可能性達百分之七。而發生6.5到7.0級地震的機率上升了百分之三十。If it were to hit, it would most likely come from the breaking of the San Andreas Fault, spanning the distance in southern California inland from Los Angeles, but there is some speculation as to which fault will be the origin point. Some reports specify that the Big One will originate from the Hayward Fault near the Bay Area and San Francisco. No matter where the earthquake comes from, it is predicted to devastate all of California and other parts of the West Coast. A "realistic crisis scenario" to be used for emergency planning was created by 300 scientists and details the earthquake's occurrence and damage through historical data–based computer projections. The computer predicts that the earthquake will produce shock waves that travel 11,600 kilometers per hour (7,200 mph), causing severe damage to major freeways and buildings. Overall, the biggest concern for any major earthquake is fires, due to the amount of dry brush that could turn any small blaze into a raging White House granted $5 million to a team from Caltech, UC Berkeley, and the University of Washington, that is developing the Earthquake Early Warning system to alert people one minute in advance of an earthquake hitting. The system is currently only able to release an alert 10 seconds prior to the beginning of an earthquake.
假如發生地震，最可能的原因是聖安地列斯斷層斷裂，這條斷層從洛杉磯起貫穿加州南部。但是至於哪一個纔是震源，現在仍有疑問。一些報告稱，"超級震"的震源將在舊金山灣區和舊金山附近的海沃斷層。無論震源是哪裏，這場地震都會給整個加州和西海岸的其他地區帶來巨大破壞。300名科學家爲應急方案設計了一個"現實危機場景"，並且根據歷史數據，利用計算機預測詳細描述了地震的發生和破壞程度。根據計算機的預測，地震產生的地震波速度爲每小時11600公里（7200英里/小時），會對主要的高速公路和建築造成嚴重的破壞。總而言之，由於一定數量的乾枯灌木叢會使任意一點火苗變成熊熊大火，因此對於任何一場大地震來說，最大的隱患便是火災。白宮爲一支由加利福尼亞理工學院、加州大學伯克利分校和華盛頓大學組成的專家團隊撥款五百萬美金，用於完善地震早期預警系統，使其預警的時間能提前至震前一分鐘。這一系統目前只能在震前10秒鐘發佈預警。r Solar Storm--2015-2025
1.2015-2025年，大型太陽風暴
The biggest natural disaster that could affect Earth in the near future doesn't even originate from our planet; it comes from the Sun.
在不久的將來，對地球影響最大的自然災害甚至不是來自地球本身，而是來自太陽。The Sun has an "activity cycle," which means that it has either decreased or increased activity, such as solar flares and sunspots, depending on its time in a particular cycle. The most recent major burst of solar activity occurred in July 2012, when a coronal mass ejection (CME) passed through Earth's orbit and hit the STEREO-A space station. A CME is the solar ejection of a billion-ton cloud of magnetized plasma that harbors the unfortunate side effect of acting as an electromagnetic pulse on Earth's electronics, taking them out of working order. A solar storm usually contains a solar flare, high levels of UV radiation, energetic particles that destroy the crucial electronic components of satellites, and many CMEs. The 2012 solar flare hit the space station but was only a week's time away from hitting Earth instead. This lucky miss for Earth may not repeat itself in the near future according to Pete Riley, a scientist at Predictive Science, Inc. After analyzing solar storm records from the past 50 years, his calculations concluded that there is a 12 percent chance of a major solar storm hitting Earth in the next 10 years. If this were to happen, it would potentially interfere with radio, GPS, and satellite communications, affecting the use of millions of electronics around the world. Power grids would also be affected due to power surges caused by the energetic particles, possibly causing major worldwide blackouts similar to the one that occurred in Quebec in 1989. The economic costs are estimated to be $1–2 trillion in the first year of impact, with a full recovery taking 4–10 years according to the National Research Council. However, a catastrophic solar storm may not occur in the near future. Even if one did occur, it may not be as impactful as some are predicting according to Robert Rutledge and the forecast office at the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. The predictions being made are the "worst-case scenario" viewpoint and are merely a warning against catastrophe. That said, major power companies and worldwide first response services are aware of the effects of solar activity and are investing heavily to defend against them.
太陽有一個"活動週期"，這意味着在一個特定的時間週期內，太陽耀斑和太陽黑子等活動可能會減少或者增加。最近的一次大型太陽活動發生在2012年7月，日冕物質拋射(CME)穿過地球軌道並撞向日地關係天文臺STEREO-A空間站。日冕物質拋射是十億噸磁化等離子體物質從太陽中被拋射出來，它會造成諸多不良影響，例如電磁脈衝干擾地球上的電力設施，使其不能正常工作。太陽風暴通常包括太陽耀斑、高強度的紫外線輻射以及能夠摧毀衛星關鍵電子元件的高能粒子和大量的日冕物質拋射。2012年這場太陽耀斑襲擊了空間站，但它的爆發時間晚了一週，使地球躲過一劫。預測科學公司的科學家皮特·萊立認爲，對於地球來說，這樣幸運的"錯過"在不久的將來將不復存在。通過分析過去50年太陽風暴的記錄，他得出結論：在未來10年內，大型太陽風暴襲擊地球的機率將是12%。假設這場風暴發生，它可能會干擾無線電、GPS和衛星通信，影響世界各地數百萬電子產品的使用。電網也會受到高能粒子所產生的電涌的影響，可能發生類似於1989年魁北克那樣的大停電。根據美國國家研究委員會，這場風暴會在第一年造成約1 – 2萬億美元的經濟損失，而要實現全面恢復需要4到10年時間。然而，這樣一場災難性的太陽風暴可能不會在近期發生。根據羅伯特·特里奇和美國國家海洋和大氣管理局預測辦公室/空間氣象預測中心的預測，即便風暴發生，其影響可能也不會像某些人預測的那樣嚴重。這些預測基於"最壞的情況"，僅僅是針對大災難的預警。即便如此，大型電力公司和全球第一應急服務公司都意識到了太陽活動的影響，並大量投資，加強防禦。審校：趙倩 編輯：Freya然 來源：前十網
