科學家預測將要發生的十場特大自然災害(上)

Every year brings new hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters to the world. Although some areas are impacted more often by these natural disasters than others, most people fear extreme weather. Scientists that study these natural disasters have been predicting major storms and occurrences for centuries. Within the 21st century, many have made predictions of major natural disasters occurring in the near and distant future. Here are 10 catastrophic natural disasters that, according to scientific evidence, may occur at any minute. (The entries are listed from least to most impactful.)

世界上每年都會發生颶風、龍捲風、地震等自然災害。儘管有些地區經常受到自然災害的影響，但大多數人仍然對極端天氣感到恐懼。幾個世紀以來，研究這些自然災害的科學家一直在進行大規模風暴及其他災害的預報工作。21世紀，很多科學家預言，一些嚴重的自然災害將在近期或者不久的將來發生。以下是十場特大自然災害，根據科學數據，它們隨時可能發生。（本文按照災害影響程度從小到大依次列出）

fires--US, 2015–2050

10.2015—2050年，美國火災

Environmental scientists from the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) predict that by 2050, wildfire seasons in the US will be three weeks longer, twice as smoky, and will burn a larger portion of the West per year. Concurrently, the US Geological Survey and the Forest Service have recorded that since 1999, the acreage burned by wildfires in the US has tripled from 2.2 million to 6.4 million annually, meaning that much more of the US will be up in flames in the near future.

哈佛工程和應用科學學院的環境科學家預測，到2050年，美國的火災高發季將延長三週，煙霧量將是以前的兩倍，西部地區每年的受災面積將擴大。同時，美國地質調查局和林務局稱，自1999年以來，全年火災受災面積由220萬英畝增加到640萬英畝，增長了近兩倍，這意味着不久美國將有更多的地區被火焰吞噬。

What has led to this dramatic increase in the US wildfire risk? The answer, according to SEAS, is gradual climate change, which has raised the Earth's temperature, creating conditions that spawn bigger and fiercer wildfires. Dr. Loretta J. Mickley, a senior research fellow in atmospheric chemistry at SEAS, stated that temperature will be the biggest determiner of future fires. The hotter it is, the more likely it is that a fire will start. Ironically, the problem has been exacerbated by the "Smokey the Bear" and Park and Forest Services campaigns to stop all forest fires, halting the natural fire cycle that clears the underbrush out of the forests. With 30,000–50,000 wildfires predicted to occur annually, the US might soon be experiencing its own version of Hell on Earth.

究竟是什麼導致美國火災風險飆升？根據工程和應用科學學院的研究，答案是緩慢的氣候變化。它提高了地球溫度，創造了條件，能引發規模更大火勢更猛的火災。洛雷塔·J·米克利博士是哈佛工程和應用科學學院大氣化學的高級研究員，她認爲，溫度是未來火災最大的決定因素。溫度越高，發生火災的可能性越大。諷刺的是，"護林熊"運動和美國公園與林業管理局阻止一切森林火災的發生，中斷了自然火災循環系統，導致林下灌木叢生，反而使問題惡化。據預測，美國每年將會發生3萬到5萬次火災，當地可能很快就要經歷美國版的人間地獄。

arbunga Volcanic Explosion--Iceland, 2014

9.2014年，冰島巴達本加火山爆發

This prediction came true within a few weeks of it being made.

這個預言在幾周後就實現了。

In August 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office increased the risk level for a possible eruption of Baroarbunga, a volcano located in Iceland. The increase was due to hundreds of earthquakes occurring around the site over several days, a good sign of a possible volcanic eruption. Scientists began to predict just what would occur if Baroarbunga erupted. Some said the ice around the volcano would melt, causing flooding. Others said that the eruption would cause additional eruptions throughout 100-meter-long (328 ft) fissures in southwest Iceland, triggering the volcano Torfajokull, which would destroy several major rivers that serve as Iceland's hydroelectric power source. On August 23, 2014, the volcano began erupting underneath the Dyngjujokull glacier. Over the course of the next week, thousands of earthquakes occurred near Baroarbunga and the area surrounding it, and on August 31, its Holuhraun fissure erupted. The Holuhraun fissure erupted for six months, officially ending on February 28, 2015. The fissure emitted, on average, enough lava to fill an American football stadium every five minutes. In the end, the volcano produced 1.5 cubic kilometers (0.4 mi3) of lava and created an 86-square-kilometer (33 mi2) lava field, making the Baroarbunga eruption of 2014 the largest Icelandic eruption since the eruption of Baroarbunga's Laki fissure in 1783.

2014年8月，冰島氣象局提高了巴達本加火山爆發的風險等級。因爲幾天內周圍發生了成百上千次地震，出現了火山爆發的徵兆。科學家開始預測火山爆發會導致什麼結果。有些人表示，火山爆發後，周圍的冰雪消融，會引發洪水。其他人則認爲，巴達本加火山爆發會引發冰島西南部100米（328英尺）長的裂縫噴發，觸動雷克雅未克火山爆發，這將摧毀爲冰島進行水力發電的幾條主要河流。2014年8月23日，丁久冰川下的火山開始噴發。在接下來的一週內，巴達本加及附近地區發生了成千上萬次地震。8月31號，Holuhraun火山爆發，持續了6個月，到2015年2月28日才結束。火山平均每5分鐘噴發出的岩漿就足以填滿一個美式足球場。最終，火山噴發出1.5立方公里（0.4 立方英里）的岩漿，形成了一個86平方公里（33 平方英里）的熔岩區。2014年巴達本加的火山爆發成爲自1783年巴達本加拉基裂縫爆發以來冰島最大的一次火山噴發。

thrust Earthquake--Chile, 2015–2065

8.2015-2065年，智利大逆衝型地震

The Chilean earthquake of April 2014 opened fissures that could lead to a magnitude 8.5 or larger earthquake in Chile. On April 1, 2014, a magnitude 8.2 earthquake occurred 97 kilometers (60 mi) off the northwest coast of Chile near the city of Iquique, causing landslides and a tsunami to hit the coast. This earthquake created the possibility for an even larger earthquake for Chile in the near future due to the location of the earthquake.

2014年4月，智利發生大地震，造成的裂縫可能會引發至少8.5級的二次地震。2014年4月1日，在距離智利西北海岸線97千米（60英里）的伊基克市附近，發生了一場8.2級地震，並引發滑坡和海嘯。由於地震位置的特殊性，這場地震可能還將在不久後給智利帶來一場更劇烈的強震。

The Iquique earthquake originated from a subduction zone where one tectonic plate, the Nazca Plate, is plunging underneath another, the South American Plate. This subduction zone lies within the "Ring of Fire," an arc in the Pacific containing 75 percent of the world's active volcanoes, which causes much of the world's seismic activity. When a tectonic plate moves under another, the faults can come under severe amounts of stress, and any release of tension causes seismic activity, namely earthquakes. The April 2014 earthquake was a "megathrust" earthquake, or a major earthquake caused by the release of tension from a subduction zone. It only relieved 33 percent of the tension on the fault, leaving the rest to be relieved in the near future.

伊基克地震的震源位於納斯卡板塊插入南美板塊下方所形成的俯衝帶上，而這條俯衝帶正好位於環太平洋火山帶中——全球75%的活火山都分佈在這條位於太平洋的圓弧上，它也是地球上多數地震活動的誘因。當地質板塊互相作用時，在巨大的壓力下有可能產生斷層，並以地震活動的形式將壓力釋放出來，這就是我們所說的"地震"。2014年4月發生的這次地震屬於大逆衝型地震，或者說是俯衝帶上壓力釋放而觸發的一次強震。它僅僅釋放了斷層處33%的張力，而餘下的部分則將默默地等待不久後的下一次機會。

Earthquake--Japan, 2017

7.2017年，日本雙震型地震

Dr. Masaaki Kimura, a seismologist and emeritus professor of submarine geology at the University of the Ryukyus, is currently predicting that another 9.0 magnitude earthquake, very similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, will occur in Japan in 2017. Occurring on March 11, 2011, the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake struck 372 kilometers (231 mi) off the coast northeast of Tokyo and created a tsunami with 9-meter (30 ft) waves that hit Japan. Dr. Kimura has stated that he predicted the Tohoku earthquake four years before it happened, but his prediction and evidence were ignored by the Pacific Science Congress.

日本地震學家、琉球大學海洋地質學榮譽教授木村政昭博士日前預測，日本將於2017年遭遇另一場與2011年東日本大地震極爲類似的9.0級強震。2011年3月11日，一場9.0級地震襲擊了距東京東北海岸372千米（231英里）的日本東北部，並引發了海嘯，掀起高達9米（30英尺）的海浪。木村博士稱，他曾提前4年預測到東北大地震，然而他的預測和論證都被太平洋科學大會所忽略。

His hypotheses have been based upon his concept of "earthquake eyes," regions that have many small earthquakes that are commonly ignored. Dr. Kimura believes that these earthquake eyes are the best predictors of where and when a major earthquake will occur. Earthquake eyes are a portion of his four-step, short-term earthquake prediction method dubbed the "Kimura method." It is currently the only early earthquake prediction method in use, yet it has not been well tested by his scientific peers. Current earthquake prediction is limited to a few seconds of ra believes that the new earthquake will begin in the Izu Islands and will be a magnitude 9.0. It will cause a tsunami to hit Japan in a very similar fashion to the Tohoku earthquake.

他的假設建立在"地震眼"的概念基礎上，這一概念指的是那些頻繁發生不易察覺的小震的地區。木村博士認爲，這些地震眼就是強震發生時間和地點的最佳預報器。以其姓名命名的"木村法"地震早期預測法分爲四步，而地震眼只是其中的一部分。這也是目前使用的唯一一種地震早期預測法，但尚未經過科學界的檢驗。當前的地震預測還侷限於震前幾秒鐘的預警。木村相信，新的地震將發生在伊豆羣島，震級9.0級。並且，它也會像東日本大地震那樣引發海嘯。

. Fuji Eruption--Japan, 2015–2053

6.2015—2053年，日本富士山噴發

When the Tohoku earthquake shifted the landmass of Japan, 20 of the 110 active volcanoes in Japan showed increased seismic activity, leading experts to believe one may erupt any day. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) monitors seismic activity and active volcanoes in Japan. Out of Japan's 110 volcanoes, 47 are considered "active," meaning they have erupted in the last 10,000 years or spew gases. Calculations show that Japan should have a major volcanic eruption every 38 years. Currently, 15 "volcanic events" happen annually.

東北部的地震造成日本大陸移動，與此同時，日本境內110座活火山中有20座火山的地震活動增加，這使專家們相信，終有一日這些活火山會爆發。日本氣象廳一直在監控地震活動以及日本的活火山狀況。在日本的110座活火山中，有47座非常活躍，在近一萬年內曾經爆發或噴發過氣體。計算結果表明，日本每38年就會發生一次大規模的火山噴發。目前，每年會發生15次"火山活動"。

On the list of 47 active Japanese volcanoes is Mt. Fuji, Japan's tallest volcano, standing at 3,773 meters (12,380 ft). In July 2014, a French and Japanese scientific team released a report claiming that Mt. Fuji is among the volcanoes most likely to erupt, causing concern for many Japanese citizens. Mt. Fuji is located only 100 kilometers (62 mi) from Tokyo. If Mt. Fuji erupted, the team predicts that it would necessitate the emergency evacuation of 750,000 people from Tokyo. The city would most likely be covered in ash.

在47座活火山的名單內就有富士山，它是日本最高的活火山，海拔3773米（12380英尺）。2014年7月，一個法日科學考察團發表報告，稱富士山是那些活火山中最有可能爆發的，這引起了日本民衆的擔憂。富士山坐落於離東京僅100公里（62英里）的地方。這個考察團預測，富士山一旦爆發，將迫使近75萬人從東京緊急疏散，而東京也將被灰塵掩蓋。

審校：趙倩 編輯：Freya然 來源：前十網