日本迎1200年來最早櫻花季 或預示嚴重生態危機

今年日本的櫻花開得比往年都要早，事實上，這是日本1200多年來最早的一次。專家指出，櫻花開得越來越早預示着更嚴重的氣候危機和生態危機。

Think of Japan in the spring, and the image that comes to mind is likely the country's famous cherry blossoms, also known as "sakura" -- white and pink flowers, bursting across cities and mountains, petals covering the ground.

想起春天的日本，映入腦海的應該是日本著名的櫻花。白色和粉色的花朵盛開在城市和山間，地面上鋪滿了花瓣。

The flowers, which experience a "peak bloom" that only lasts a few days, have been revered in Japan for more than a thousand years. Crowds celebrate with viewing parties, flocking to the most popular locations to take photos and have picnics underneath the branches.

盛花期只有幾天的櫻花一千多年來在日本備受推崇。人們舉辦賞花會來慶祝，蜂擁到熱門景點拍照，在櫻花樹下野餐。

But this year, cherry blossom season has come and gone in the blink of an eye, in one of the earliest blooms on record -- and scientists warn it's a symptom of the larger climate crisis threatening ecosystems everywhere.

但是今年，櫻花季眨眼之間來了又去，花期前所未有地早。科學家警告說，這預示着更大規模威脅各地生態系統的氣候危機即將到來。

Yasuyuki Aono, a researcher at Osaka Prefecture University, has gathered records from Kyoto back to 812 AD from historical documents and diaries. In the central city of Kyoto, cherry blossoms peaked on March 26, the earliest in more than 1,200 years, Aono said.

大阪府立大學的研究員青野靖之收集了京都從公元812年至今的歷史文獻和日誌。青野指出，京都市中心的櫻花在3月26日達到全盛，這是1200多年來最早的一次。

And in the capital Tokyo, cherry blossoms reached full bloom on March 22, the second-earliest date on record.

在日本首都東京，櫻花在3月22日達到了全盛，這是有記錄以來第二早的盛花期。

"As global temperatures warm, the last spring frosts are occurring earlier and flowering is occurring sooner," said Dr. Lewis Ziska from Columbia University's Environmental Health Sciences.

哥倫比亞大學環境健康科學系的路易斯·齊思卡博士說：“隨着全球氣溫變暖，春天最後一次霜凍時間提前，花開得也更早了。”

The peak bloom dates shift every year, depending on numerous factors including weather and rainfall, but have shown a general trend of moving earlier and earlier. In Kyoto, the peak date hovered around mid-April for centuries, according to Aono's data, but began moving into early April during the 1800s. The date has only dipped into late March a handful of times in recorded history.

櫻花花期每年都不同，取決於天氣、雨水等諸多因素，但是總體趨勢是越來越早。根據青野的數據，京都過去幾百年的盛花期都是在四月中旬，但是19世紀開始變成四月初。根據記載，歷史上只有幾次在三月末進入盛花期。

"Sakura blooms are very temperature sensitive," said Aono. "Flowering and full bloom could be earlier or later depending on the temperature alone," he said. "The temperature was low in the 1820s, but it has risen by about 3.5 degrees Celsius to this day."

青野說：“櫻花對氣溫十分敏感。光是氣溫變化就可以提早或推遲花期。19世紀20年代氣溫較低，但自那以後氣溫已經上升了約3.5攝氏度。”

This year's seasons in particular influenced the blossom dates, he added. The winter was very cold, but the spring came fast and unusually warm, so "the buds are completely awake after enough rest."

他補充道，今年的春季對花期影響尤其大。冬天非常寒冷，但是春天很快就來了，而且異常溫暖，因此“花骨朵在足夠的休息後完全覺醒了”。

Their early bloom, however, is just the tip of the iceberg of a worldwide phenomenon that could destabilize natural systems and countries' economies, said Amos Tai, assistant professor of earth science at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

香港中文大學地球科學系的助理教授阿摩司·塔伊說，櫻花早開只是一個世界級現象的冰山一角。這一現象將會動搖自然系統，危害國家經濟。

There are two sources of increased heat, which is the main factor making the flowers bloom earlier: urbanization and climate change. With increased urbanization, cities tend to get warmer than the surrounding rural area, in what is called the heat island effect. But a bigger reason is climate change, which has caused rising temperatures across the region and the world.

導致櫻花早開的主要因素是來自城市化和氣候變化兩大源頭的高溫。隨着城市化水平提高，城市的溫度通常比周邊鄉村地區更高，這就是所謂的熱島效應。但是更大的原因是導致該地區和全球氣溫升高的氣候變化。

And these earlier dates aren't just a matter of tourists scrambling to catch peak bloom before the petals all fall -- it could have a lasting impact on entire ecosystems, and threaten the survival of many species.

櫻花提早盛開不止讓遊客難以在花謝之前一睹盛景，而且還會對整個生態系統產生持久的影響，並威脅到許多物種的生存。

Different plants and insects may respond to the rise in heat at different paces, throwing their life cycles out of sync. Whereas they once timed their growth simultaneously each spring, now flowers may bloom before insects are ready, and vice versa -- meaning "the insects may not find enough food to eat from the plants, and the plants don't have enough pollinators (to reproduce)," Tai said.

不同的植物和昆蟲可能以不同的節奏來應對溫度的升高，導致它們的生命週期不再同步。過去它們每年春季的成長是同步的，而現在也許昆蟲還未準備好，花就開了，反之亦然。塔伊說，這意味着“昆蟲可能無法從植物獲取足夠的食物，而植物可能沒有足夠的傳粉昆蟲（來繁殖後代）”。

"Ecosystems are not accustomed to these kinds of large fluctuations, it causes them a lot of stress," he said. "Productivity may be reduced, and ecosystems may even collapse in the future."

塔伊表示：“生態系統不習慣這種大起大落，會產生很大壓力。生產力可能會降低，未來生態系統甚至可能崩潰。”

This year's change in flowering dates isn't limited to just Japan; the cherry blossoms that adorn the Tidal Basin in Washington, DC, have also bloomed early. According to the National Park Service, the peak bloom date of the Washington cherry blossoms has advanced forward by nearly a week from April 5th to March 31.

今年櫻花花期的變化不只侷限於日本，華盛頓特區潮汐湖畔的櫻花也早早地開了。據美國國家公園管理局報告，華盛頓櫻花的盛花期比往年提早了近一週，從4月5日提前到了3月31日。

And the effects of climate change aren't just limited to cherry blossoms. The same phenomenon is already happening to many crops and economically valuable plants, Tai said -- posing big problems for food security and farmers' livelihoods. Food supplies in some of the most vulnerable regions in the world are being directly affected by droughts, crop failures and locust swarms.

此外，氣候變化的影響也不只侷限於櫻花。塔伊指出，同樣的現象也已經發生在許多農作物和經濟作物上，這給糧食安全和農民生計造成了難題。世界上食物供應最困難的一些地區正直接受到乾旱、農作物歉收和蝗災的影響。

"Agriculture now is more like a gamble, because climate change is randomizing the things happening in our ecological systems." Tai added.

塔伊補充道：“農業現在更像是賭博，因爲氣候變化增加了生態系統中萬事萬物的隨機性。”