供不應求 全世界巧克力快被吃光啦

They are words which will strike fear into every addict - we're running out of chocolate.

我們的巧克力快要耗光了——這話會使每一個嗜巧克力成癮的人感到害怕。

That's according to the world's largest confectionary producer, which has joined Mars in warning of a massive shortfall which could reach a million tonnes a year by 2020.

消息來自世界最大的糖果點心生產商，該公司與瑪氏公司一起發出警告，指出巧克力生產的巨大缺口將於2020年達到每年100萬噸。

Switzerland's Barry Callebaut Group said soaring demand have helped chocolate prices hit more than double what they were just eight years ago.

瑞士的百樂嘉利寶集團說道，不斷上漲的需求使得巧克力的價格與八年前相比翻了一倍還多。

The supplier, which provides chocolate for firms from global giants to artisan bakers, has revealed it sold 1.7million tonnes in 2013/14 - a rise of 11.7 per cent on the year before.

據這個向國際巨頭和手工點心作坊提供巧克力的供應商反映，在2013-14年度，其巧克力銷售額達到了170萬噸，與之前一年相比上漲了11.7%。

But there are limited quantities of the fragile crop - which means as production rises, so does the price.

然而，這種脆弱的作物數量是有限的，這也就意味着，生產增長的同時價格會有所上漲。

That leaves manufacturers with little choice but to raise prices on the shelves, make bars smaller or pack them with fruit, nuts and wafers.

這也使得生產商幾乎別無選擇，只能提高零售價格、把巧克力棒做得更小或者在巧克力裏塞水果、堅果和威化餅。

Industry experts say the world is in its longest production shortfall for five decades.

行業專家認爲，世界正處於最長的一次生產缺口中，此次缺口持續時間達到50年之久。

Cocoa prices rose by a quarter in a year to a peak in August of £2,000 a tonne, nearing a February 2011 peak, Barry Callebaut said.

百樂嘉利寶集團表示，可可的價格一年間上漲了25%，在八月份達到最高點，爲2000英鎊一噸，接近2011年二月時的最高價格。

Before the end of 2007 they had barely risen above £1,300. In 2005 they hovered around just £1,000, according to figures from the London-based International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).

總部設在倫敦的國際可可組織（ICCO）的數據顯示，2007年底之前，可可價格僅僅漲到1300英鎊以上，而2005年時，價格只是1000英鎊左右。

Barry Callebaut chief executive Juergen Steinemann said the hike was fuelled partly by a 'potential cocoa shortage' by 2020 - echoing previous warnings by Mars Chocolate.

百樂嘉利寶集團首席執行官尤爾根·史坦曼說價格上漲的部分原因是2020年“可能出現的可可短缺”，這與瑪氏巧克力公司之前提出的警告相一致。

The British-founded sweet treats giant has repeatedly claimed demand will outstrip supply by a million tonnes a year by 2020.

這家成立於英國的甜品業巨頭再三表明，到2020年，需求量將大大超出供應量，缺口將達每年100萬噸。

'The global cocoa sector may suffer a 1million metric ton shortfall by 2020 because of increasing economic and environmental pressures on cocoa farms around the world,' the firm said.

公司指出，由於全球範圍內對可可農場不斷加大的經濟和環境壓力，到2020年，世界可可板塊可能遭受100萬公噸的缺口。

'Our long-term business depends on a sustainable supply of high quality cocoa, and we believe that securing cocoa’s future begins with increasing yield for the smallholder farmers.'

“我們的長期業務依賴於高質量可可的可持續供應，我們相信，爲確保可可在未來的供應，必須提高小農戶的產量。”

Partly to blame are disease and drought, according to Bloomberg News - which could be beaten by resilient new breeds of cocoa beans.

據彭博新聞社報道，造成缺口的部分原因是疾病和乾旱，這可以通過抗病耐旱的新品種可可得以解決。

But we are also getting hungrier for sweet treats - especially in developing nations like China.

然而，我們對於甜品的需求越來越大，尤其是在以中國爲例的發展中國家。

Barry Callebaut's sales grew by 9.3 per cent in Asia last year - compared to 5.4 per cent in the Americas and just 0.1 per cent in Western Europe.

去年，百樂嘉利寶集團在亞洲的銷售額上漲了9.3%，相比較而言，銷售額在北美的增長率爲5.4%，在西歐只有0.1%的增長率。

Mars opened a £170million new plant in Kansas earlier this year to meet rising demand, and last month Barry Callebaut announced it would pour £7.3million into its factory in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

今年早些時候，瑪氏公司在堪薩斯州開設了一個1.7億美元的新公司以滿足不斷上漲的需求。上個月，百樂嘉利寶集團宣佈將向其設在巴西聖保羅的工廠投入730萬英鎊。

But some surprising news events have a hand in the price, including the Ebola outbreak.

不過，包括埃博拉疫情爆發在內的一些意外的新聞事件也是造成價格上漲的原因之一。

Because 70 per cent of the world's cocoa comes from West Africa, chaos and quarantine restrictions mean global production has dipped by 0.7 per cent, the ICCO said.

國際可可組織指出，由於世界70%的可可產自西非，混亂與檢疫制度導致全球產量下降了0.7%。

And pledges to beat Third World poverty could also have an impact - as many African cocoa farmers live on less than £1 a day.

同時，戰爭第三世界貧困的承諾也會有一定影響，因爲非洲許多種植可可的農民每天僅靠不到1英鎊的費用生存。