不應輕視民粹主義
Populism and power can make for uncomfortable bedfellows. Shouting from the sidelines, the likes of Donald Trump offer simple solutions to intractable challenges. The problems start when they actually win. The US president is running out of excuses. So are some of his soulmates across the Atlantic: Britain may be heading towards Brexit, but taking back control is proving a much tougher proposition.
It is premature to read the rites over the electoral insurgency of the past few years. Far-right parties are winning significant vote shares across Europe. The Islamophobic Alternative for Germany now has seats in the Bundestag. The ugly xenophobia of Austria’s Freedom party has found a place in government.
要爲過去幾年的“選民造反”讀悼詞，還爲時過早。極右翼黨派在歐洲各國贏得可觀選票。患有伊斯蘭恐懼症的德國新選擇黨(AfD)目前在聯邦議院(Bundestag)擁有席位。奧地利自由黨(Freedom party)醜陋的仇外勢力在政府中佔有一席之地。That said, many expected 2017 to be the year when the populists swept away all before them. In the event, they were mostly held at the gates. The nativist Geert Wilders failed in the Netherlands and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen was soundly beaten by the centrist Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential poll. When the glass is half-full, it is worth saying so.
話說回來，許多人曾經預計2017年將成爲民粹主義者橫掃一切的一年。結果，他們基本上被擋在在大門口。本土主義者海爾特?維爾德斯(Geert Wilders)在荷蘭落敗，國民陣線(National Front)的馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)在法國總統選舉中慘敗給中間派埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)。玻璃杯半滿是值得一提的。
Mr Trump’s great frustration is rooted in his failure to understand how to be president. He is stranded in office but not in power. The wall along the Mexican border has yet to be started, Barack Obama’s affordable care act is in place, and US troops are still in Afghanistan. The 35 per cent tax cut he promised for his middle-class supporters is set instead to be handed over to big corporations and the rich.
特朗普的巨大受挫感源於他不懂如何當總統。他坐進了橢圓形辦公室，但並未真正主政。墨西哥邊界的隔離牆尚未啓動，巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的《平價醫療法》(Affordable Care Act)仍是法律，美軍仍在阿富汗。他對中產階級支持者承諾減稅35%，結果卻讓大公司和富人受益。The list goes on. The supposedly obsolete Nato has been given a reprieve, China has avoided being branded a currency manipulator and the White House has dropped plans for a blanket immigration ban on Muslims. Instead of a promised grand bargain with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Washington is consumed by investigations into the Trump campaign’s Moscow connections.
這份清單很長。曾被稱爲過時的北約(NATO)已獲得“緩刑”，中國已避免被貼上匯率操縱國的標籤，白宮放棄了全面禁止穆斯林移民的計劃。特朗普政府沒有像承諾的那樣跟俄羅斯的弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)達成“大交易”，華盛頓的很大一部分精力集中於針對特朗普競選陣營的通俄案調查。By pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, retreating from the Paris climate change agreement and questioning longstanding commitments to allies, Mr Trump has diminished US influence around the world — hard to square with making America great again. In short, the snake oil he sold on the campaign trail has turned out to be, well, snake oil. It cannot be a coincidence that the president’s approval rating at this stage of his term is the lowest on record.
撤出《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)、退出巴黎氣候變化協議，以及質疑美國對盟友的長期承諾意味着，特朗普削弱了美國在世界各地的影響力——這個現實與“讓美國再度偉大”的口號很難協調。簡言之，他在競選過程中的胡扯已被證明真的是胡扯。絕非巧合的是，他在總統任期的這個階段支持率跌至史上最低水平。
