默克爾如何應對民粹政黨崛起
The state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is something of a backwater.
梅克倫堡-前波莫瑞州（Mecklenburg-Vorpommern，以下簡稱梅前州）有點兒閉塞。
Otto von Bismarck is said to have quipped that, if the world was about to end, he would move to Mecklenburg as it would take a further 50 years for the apocalypse to arrive there.
據說奧托•馮•俾斯麥(Otto von Bismarck)曾打趣說，如果世界末日到來，他將會搬到梅克倫堡去住，因爲大災難還得50年才能抵達那裏。
Yet the election to its state legislature put this rural corner of northeastern Germany at the heart of a long-overdue debate.
然而該州立法機構的選舉讓這個位於德國東北部的偏遠地區成爲一場拖延已久的辯論的焦點。
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) finished third in Sunday’s poll behind the rightwing populist Alternative for Germany and the Social Democrats (SPD).
德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)的基民盟(CDU)在上週日梅前州議會選舉中的得票位列第三，落後於右翼民粹政黨德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)和社民黨(SPD)。
The question is how to deal with the AfD now it is here to stay.
問題是如何應對現在已經站穩腳跟的德國新選擇黨。
The difficulty is that this is a party to which many of the usual rules of German political life do not seem to apply.
困難在於，這是一個似乎不適用諸多德國政治常規的政黨。
Normally, voters shun parties whose top officials publicly fight among themselves.
在正常情況下，選民不會支持最高層官員公開內訌的政黨。
Not so with the AfD.
這並不適用於德國新選擇黨。
Public mudslinging among party leaders does not appear to be putting people off.
該黨領導人彼此公開詆譭似乎並沒有讓人們放棄支持。
Moreover, voters normally abandon their support for anti-establishment parties once a particular problem is solved or is no longer at the top of the political agenda.
此外，一旦某一特定問題得到解決或者不再處於政治議程的首位，選民通常就會放棄對反建制政黨的支持。
This is what happened in the early summer of 2015 when the crisis in the eurozone was solved, for the time being at least, with a third bailout deal for Greece.
當2015年夏初相關各方就希臘第三輪紓困達成協議、歐元區危機得到解決（至少暫時得到解決）的時候就是這樣。
The AfD’s opinion poll ratings went down almost immediately.
德國新選擇黨的民調支持率幾乎應聲下跌。
Not so this time.
這次卻不是這樣。
The massive influx of refugees and migrants from Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East has long since slowed to a trickle yet the AfD is still going strong.
來自敘利亞和其他中東地區的難民和移民已經從大規模涌入轉變爲零星進入，然而德國新選擇黨仍在壯大。
This is bad news for Ms Merkel.
這對默克爾來說是壞消息。
Her style is pragmatic rather than emotional or charismatic.
她的風格是務實型、而非情感型或魅力型。
But it is emotion and fear that are fuelling the rise of the AfD, and the chancellor appears to have no answer to it.
但正是情感和擔憂促成了德國新選擇黨的崛起，默克爾似乎沒有解決辦法。
Nevertheless, she will not budge.
然而，她不會動搖。
Last week, she reaffirmed her refugee policy.
上週，她重申了自己的難民政策。
I don’t regret anything, she said in an interview with the Bild newspaper.
她在接受德國《圖片報》(Bild)採訪時表示：我不後悔任何事。
In the wake of the CDU’s third place in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, party officials, as well as ordinary members, are getting nervous.
基民盟在梅前州議會選舉中的得票位列第三位之後，黨內官員以及普通黨員越來越感到擔憂。
They ask anxiously whether the party can still win elections with Ms Merkel at the helm.
他們不安地質問，在默克爾掌舵下，基民盟還能否贏得選舉。
At the same time, adding to the sense of helplessness, they know that there is no obvious or plausible alternative to her.
與此同時，他們也知道沒有明顯或貌似合理的替代人選，這更讓他們感覺無助。
Win or lose, the party is chained to Ms Merkel, who will urge her colleagues and supporters to be patient.
無論贏得還是輸掉選舉，基民盟都與默克爾休慼相關，她將敦促同僚和支持者保持耐心。
In December, a CDU convention is supposed to re-elect her as party leader.
在今年12月，默克爾有望在基民盟大會上再次當選爲領導人。
It is highly likely that she will use the occasion to announce her intention to run for the chancellorship again.
她屆時很可能宣佈有意再次競選總理。
In short, the AfD is not going away and nor is Ms Merkel.
簡言之，德國新選擇黨不會走開，默克爾也不會。
So the CDU must decide whether the taboo on coalition-building with the AfD will be permanent.
因此基民盟必須決定，不能與德國新選擇黨締結聯盟的禁忌是否是永久性的。
The discussion in the party will be painful, as much as the one the SPD had to undergo when the formerly communist Die Linke party did not vanish after reunification in 1990.
該黨將會進行痛苦的討論，就像是在1990年兩德統一後，原共產主義黨派德國左翼黨(Die Linke)沒有消亡的時候，社民黨不得不展開的討論那樣。
Bringing the AfD into the fold might be a way to defang a populist movement that is clearly anti-establishment and xenophobic.
拉攏德國新選擇黨可能大大削弱顯然是反建制和排外的民粹運動。
AfD officials say openly that they do not want to be in government but they cannot explain why.
德國新選擇黨官員公開表示，他們不想上臺執政，但他們無法說清原因。
Pressing them on this point might be a more effective way of draining support for the populist party than any of the other strategies that the CDU has attempted.
與基民盟已嘗試的其他戰略相比，在這一點上施壓可能會更爲有效地削弱該黨的支持。
Unfortunately, Ms Merkel is not a particularly daring or audacious politician.
遺憾的是，默克爾不是特別勇敢或者大膽的政客。
In all likelihood, she will try to keep on doing business as usual instead of broaching the delicate subject of coalition or co-operation with the AfD.
她將很有可能像往常那樣行事，而不是提出與德國新選擇黨組建聯盟或合作的敏感話題。
The chancellor might even tacitly count on the AfD entering the Bundestag after the elections in autumn 2017 because, if it does, it will be mathematically impossible to construct a governing majority without her and the CDU.
默克爾可能甚至暗中希望新選擇黨在2017年秋季選舉之後進入德國聯邦議院，因爲如果該黨進入聯邦議院，在缺少默克爾和基民盟的情況下，組成執政所需的多數席位從數學角度來說是不可能的。
The paradox is that a strong AfD will probably help Ms Merkel stay in power for another term.
矛盾之處在於，一個強大的新選擇黨很可能將幫助默克爾再連任一屆。
