小池百合子成爲安倍勁敵

The global rage for upsetting the established order shows signs of having reached Japan. Tokyo’s first female governor, Yuriko Koike, humiliated prime minister Shinzo Abe earlier this month by leading her newly formed political party to a commanding victory over Mr Abe’s ruling Liberal Democrats in elections for the capital’s assembly.

顛覆現有秩序的全球怒火顯示出正蔓延至日本的跡象。東京都首位女知事小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)在7月讓安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)感到了難堪——她領導自己新組建的政黨，在東京都議會選舉中大勝安倍領導的執政黨自由民主黨(Liberal Democrats)。

This leaves the former newscaster positioned as a viable alternative to Mr Abe, who until recently appeared to have a firm grip on power. Already under pressure, Mr Abe announced he will reshuffle his cabinet next month as his approval rating sank to its lowest level since he took power in 2012.

這讓這位前新聞播音員成爲接替安倍的可行人選，後者直至最近似乎仍緊緊控制着權力。安倍已經感受到了壓力，他宣佈將在8月重組內閣，其支持率已跌至2012年上臺以來的最低水平。

Ms Koike presents herself as a kind of anti-Abe — a reformist crusader on a mission to overturn the status quo. It is not clear, though, that she represents a plan B or alternative to “Abenomics”, the prime minister’s blueprint for reviving Japan’s fortunes.

小池百合子認爲自己在某種程度上是反安倍的——一位肩負着顛覆現狀使命的改革鬥士。然而，目前尚不清楚的是，她是代表着“B計劃”還是“安倍經濟學”的替代版本。安倍經濟學是安倍爲復興日本而提出的經濟藍圖。

For one thing, Ms Koike is in many ways Mr Abe’s ideological sister, sharing both his commitment to growth-promoting economic liberalisation and his penchant for conservative nationalism. Until recently, she was a member of his Liberal Democratic party.

首先，小池百合子在意識形態的許多方面與安倍相近，既承諾推行促進增長的經濟自由化措施，又傾向於保守的民族主義。就在不久前，她還是安倍的自民黨中的一員。

During her campaign for the Tokyo governorship last year, Ms Koike vowed to “make Abenomics take off from Tokyo”. She was referring in particular to what Mr Abe has called the “third arrow” of structural reform, promising that the capital would be the “gravitational force of the growth strategy”. As governor, she surprised many by supporting the prime minister’s plan for special economic zones. And she is the staunchest proponent of Mr Abe’s vision of female empowerment, which he calls “Womenomics”.

在去年競選東京都知事期間，小池百合子誓言“讓安倍經濟學從東京啓動”。她尤其還提及被安倍稱爲“第三支箭”的結構性改革，承諾東京將是“該增長戰略的核心力量”。作爲東京都知事，她支持安倍提出的設立經濟特區的計劃，這讓許多人感到意外。而且小池百合子還是安倍提出的婦女賦權願景的最堅定支持者——安倍將此稱爲“女性經濟學”。

Ironically, Ms Koike’s victory could be the best thing that has happened to Mr Abe in months. Faced with a credible threat in the shape of the Tokyo governor, Mr Abe will need to listen to the people and turn his attention back to the economy — and away from his pet project of constitutional reform, which would put Japan on the path to having a real army. Ms Koike may shake Mr Abe out of the complacency into which he has fallen thanks to the thumping majority he enjoys in both houses of parliament.

具有諷刺意味的是，小池百合子的勝利可能是安倍近幾個月來遇到的最好的事情。在面對東京都知事小池百合子帶來的巨大威脅下，安倍將需要傾聽民衆的呼聲，將注意力從其偏愛的憲法改革轉回到經濟上來——憲法改革將讓日本走上以擁有真正軍隊爲目標的道路。小池百合子可能讓安倍放下因在國會兩院獲得絕對多數地位而產生的自滿情緒。

Ms Koike, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher and Hillary Clinton, should be setting her sights on Japan’s top job. But she would be well-advised to be patient. If she tries to emulate, say, Emmanuel Macron’s lightning path to power in France, she may well discover — like many Japanese reformers in the past — that she lacks the clout or power base to carry out any of her plans.

小池百合子是瑪格麗特?撒切爾(Margaret Thatcher)和希拉里?克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的傾慕者，她應該會謀求日本首相一職。但她最好耐心一些。比如，如果她試圖效仿埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)在法國閃電般的崛起之路，她可能發現——與日本過去的許多改革家一樣——自己缺乏實施任何改革的影響力或權力基礎。

It may serve Ms Koike’s interests, therefore, to sit out her next opportunity to grab the premiership, in 2018. She should strive first to be a successful governor of Tokyo. In that role she enjoys a huge legislative mandate, as well as great executive power, in a city that has the population and gross domestic product of a mid-sized advanced nation.

因此，不急着在2018年競爭首相職位可能符合小池百合子的利益。她首先應該努力成爲一名成功的東京都知事。東京是一座人口和GDP達到中等規模發達國家水平的城市，小池百合子擔任知事享有巨大的立法委任權和行政權力。

She should fulfil her promise to launch Mr Abe’s third arrow from Tokyo — perhaps in spite of the prime minister himself. She should ensure a dazzling Tokyo Olympic Games in 2020. This would guarantee her immense kudos, rekindling memories of the 1964 Tokyo games, a landmark event which symbolised the country’s recovery after the devastation of the second world war.

她應該兌現其從東京發射安倍“第三支箭”的承諾——或許不管安倍自己怎樣做。她應該確保2020年的東京奧運會光彩奪目。這將確保她獲得巨大榮譽，令人回憶起1964年東京奧運會，那是象徵着日本在二戰遭受重創後復甦的里程碑事件。

The task will be formidable, for “To-cho”, as Tokyo City Hall is known, is notorious for the influential “dons” who operate behind the scenes. That would be ample preparation for exercising national leadership in Nagatacho, the government district. If Ms Koike fulfils her mission of being a transformative Tokyo governor, she will be in a position to launch a bid for the premiership after 2020. And she will have sufficient executive experience to have a chance of making her tenure a success.

這個任務將非常艱鉅，因爲名爲“To-cho”的東京市政廳以影響力極大的“導師”幕後操縱出名。這將是爲小池百合子在永田町行使國家領導權的充分準備。如果小池百合子作爲東京都知事能夠大刀闊斧地改革，那就會有利於她在2020年之後競選首相。屆時她將擁有足夠的行政經驗，從而有可能在任職期間取得成功。