首相塵埃落定 英國脫歐談判不應急躁
One by one, the rivals to replace David Cameron were found out. Boris Johnson, a chancer who thinks a smattering of Latin fair substitute for strategy or principle. Michael Gove, a political sociopath with a manifesto that read like an undergraduate essay. Andrea Leadsom, the hard-right’s unelectable answer to Labour’s far-left, and unelectable, Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May’s stroll into Downing Street offered some hope that Britain has not gone completely mad.
競爭取代戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)的人一個接一個現身。鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)，投機分子，以爲會一點拉丁語就不用考慮策略或原則。邁克爾•戈夫(Michael Gove)，政治上的反社會分子，其宣言讀起來像一篇本科生論文。安德里亞•利德索姆(Andrea Leadsom)，不可能領導保守黨贏得大選的強硬右派，就像同樣不可能領導工黨贏得大選的工黨極左派傑里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)。特里薩•梅(Theresa May)步入唐寧街的畫面給了人們些許希望——英國沒有徹底瘋掉。
Mr Johnson has the Foreign Office as a consolation prize. The hope must be that he is not too much of an embarrassment. The adage has it that politics always ends in failure. In Mr Cameron’s case it was self-inflicted. He always preferred tactics to strategy. Add an inflated sense of his ability to get out of tight spots and an unhappy ending was inevitable. The big tactical swerve — a referendum offered in a vain attempt to appease Tory Europhobes — steered him, and the nation, into a brick wall.
作爲安慰獎，約翰遜得到了英國外交部，但願他不會製造太多尷尬。諺語有云，政治總是以失敗告終。但卡梅倫這件事上，失敗是他自己造成的。他總是輕戰略重戰術，以逃避困難局面見長，結局必然是失敗。這個戰術大轉彎——妄圖以公投安撫恐歐盟保守黨人——讓他，連帶整個英國都撞了牆。
There was not much dignity, I suppose, in the abruptness with which he was bundled out of Number 10 this week but then Brexit is the biggest political and foreign policy failure of postwar Britain. The 1956 Suez debacle was a small bump on the road by comparison. The prime minister who took Britain out of the EU and, quite possibly, broke the union of the United Kingdom as a consequence — not a happy epitaph.
我想，儘管卡梅倫上週倉促搬離唐寧街10號顯得不太體面，但脫歐纔是英國戰後在政治上、外交政策上的最大失敗。與之相比，1956年蘇伊士運河危機只是歷史長河裏的一次小顛簸。“這裏長眠着一位英國首相，他不但帶着英國退出了歐盟，而且（很可能）因此拆散了聯合王國”——這樣的墓誌銘聽起來可不怎樣。
Mrs May was the best choice available as his successor. She was on the pro-European side but stayed invisible during the campaign. Her reputation as a steely, competent home secretary is overdone. She dodged difficult decisions and failed to get a grip on border controls and the enforcement of immigration rules. Her success was surviving in a department more commonly considered a political graveyard. She has a reputation as a pragmatist and avoids histrionics. The process of government will become more formal and be better for it. In temperament she is not too far from Germany’s Angela Merkel.
梅是現有最佳的卡梅倫繼任人選。她是親歐派，但在脫歐公投運動中表現得並不明顯。說她是一位“鐵娘子”，一個能幹的內政大臣是過譽了。她逃避艱難的決定，既沒有抓好邊境控制，又沒能落實移民規則。她的成功之處，就是在一個通常被視爲政治墳墓的部門倖存了下來。她是個有名的實用主義者，儘量避免裝腔作勢。政府工作流程將更規範，這樣也更好。氣質方面而言，她與德國的安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)差得不太多。
The policy vacuum left by the Brexit vote has thus far filled with wishful thinking. On the pro-European side, a cry of pain has been followed by insistence that the result need not be the final word. Lawyers have been hired, constitutional precedents consulted. If the people can decide to say goodbye to their own continent, surely they also have the right to change their mind? After all, buyers’ remorse may set in as the economy slips towards recession.
到目前爲止，英國脫歐公投留下的政治真空充滿了一廂情願。親歐派這邊，一通哀嚎過後，他們堅決主張公投結果不一定是最終定論。他們聘請律師，諮詢憲法判例。如果人民可以選擇跟自己所在的大陸說再見，爲什麼不能有改變主意的權利？畢竟，隨着經濟滑向衰退，“買家後悔”情緒可能出現。
Among the Leavers there is a let’s-get-on-with-it hubris that says Britain can skip out of the EU the day after tomorrow. It will get a good deal because Germany wants to continue selling its cars and France its wine. Anyway, the latter-day Elizabethans declare, there is a world to be conquered beyond Europe’s troubled shores. A sinking economy? Pro-European propaganda. These are people who invent their own facts.
脫歐派則瀰漫着一股“大家面對現實吧”的傲慢勁兒，他們說英國後天就能離開歐盟。英國將得到一筆好交易，因爲德國想繼續賣車，法國想繼續賣酒。總之，這些活在伊麗莎白時代的當代人宣稱，在困難重重的歐洲大陸以外，還有個世界等着英國去征服。經濟下沉？那是親歐派的宣傳。這些人總是在編造自己想要的事實。
It is possible, of course, that Britain could decide in the end to remain in the EU or to opt for something close to it such as associate membership. If we have learnt anything these past few weeks it is that politics can turn somersaults. A new prime minister will not change the reality that it will be difficult to secure broad political consent for any one of the many versions of “out”. On the other hand, it is also conceivable, just, that a speedy and good-natured negotiation could see Britain leave on relatively favourable terms.
當然，英國人也可能最終決定留在歐盟，或選擇某種類似身份，比如歐盟準會員。如果說過去幾周我們學到了什麼，那就是政治可能發生180度的大轉彎。“脫歐”有很多版本，任何一種版本都很難在政治上獲得廣泛贊同，新首相也不會改變這一現實。但另一方面，可以預料動作快、態度好的談判將讓英國以比較有利的條件脫歐。
Politicians must deal in facts and probabilities rather than dreams. The process of unravelling four decades of political and economic integration will be complex, costly and frequently bad-tempered. The Britain that emerges will be weaker economically and have a smaller footprint internationally.
政治人士必須兜售事實和可能性，而不是夢想。解除40年的政治和經濟一體化將是一個複雜、成本高昂、通常還令人脾氣暴躁的過程。脫歐後的英國的經濟將會變弱，國際影響將會變小。
“Brexit means Brexit” is Mrs May’s favourite phrase. It offers assurance to Tory Outers who worry about her commitment to withdrawal. It says nothing, though, about the shape of post-Brexit relations. The new prime minister has avoided showing her hand on where she wants to draw the balance between access to the single market and national control of immigration policy. This will be the subject of two sets of negotiations — the first with her own party, where the interests of business will collide with the ideology of Little Englanders, and then with the other 27 EU states. The former may be harder than the latter.
“英國脫歐就意味着英國脫歐”是梅最喜歡的句子。這是對那些擔心她是否會兌現脫歐承諾的保守黨脫歐派的保證。然而，這句話對英國脫歐後的英歐關係隻字未提。這位新首相避免明確表態她希望在單一市場準入和國家對移民政策的控制之間的哪個位置取得平衡。這將是兩組談判的主題——第一組是與她本人所在黨的談判，商業利益將與英國本土主義者的意識形態發生碰撞，然後是與其他27個歐盟國家的談判。前者可能比後者還要困難。
Mrs May will be told by the Brexiters to get on with it: set out your position clearly, trigger Article 50 and wrap up a deal as quickly as possible to put an end to uncertainty. The prime minister should ignore the pleas. The only hope she has of squaring half-a-dozen circles will be to play the negotiations long.
脫歐人士將敦促梅繼續推進：闡明立場，激活《里斯本條約》(Lisbon Treaty)第50條，然後儘快簽訂一項協議，終結不確定性。首相應該無視這些請求。她解決半打異常棘手的問題的唯一希望是讓這些談判曠日持久地進行下去。
We are living through a period of political and economic upheaval — in Britain and in the rest of the continent. What Mrs May must hope is that over time the politically impossible becomes the possible; that compromises unacceptable today are seen as common sense a year or two hence.
我們正在經歷一個政治和經濟的動盪期——無論是在英國還是在歐洲大陸的其他地方。梅只能希望，隨着時間的推移，政治不可能會變成可能；今天看來不可接受的讓步在一兩年後會被視爲合理。
Why should Europe wait? Listen to Ms Merkel. The chancellor quite rightly insists that the EU will not be bent out of shape to accommodate the British. But she prefers deliberation to rushed decisions. She understands it is in Europe’s interest to rescue what can be salvaged from the wreckage and to emerge with relations with Britain on a reasonable footing. She also has an election to fight next year. So does President François Hollande of France. Changes to EU-wide migration rules may seem more attractive. A pause might just suit everyone.
那麼歐洲爲什麼應該等待呢？聽聽默克爾的話吧。這位德國總理相當正確地堅持認爲，歐盟不應該爲了適應英國而扭曲自身。但比起倉促之間作出決定，她更希望各方能深思熟慮。她明白，從廢墟里救出還能夠被搶救出來的東西，在合理的基礎上建立與英國的關係，符合歐洲的利益。默克爾明年還必須爲大選而戰。法國總統弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)也是如此。修訂整個歐洲範圍內的移民法規似乎更有吸引力。暫時的停頓可能對所有人都好。
