中國新絲綢之路的坎坷 地緣政治錯綜複雜
ANKARA, Turkey — As tensions in the Mideast and Ukraine rose in recent years, Turkey had moved to jointly manufacture a sophisticated missile defense system.
土耳其安卡拉——隨着中東和烏克蘭緊張局勢在近幾年升溫，土耳其曾着手與人合作建造一個尖端的導彈防禦系統。
But Turkey abruptly abandoned the plan just weeks ago in the face of strong opposition from its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
但是在遭到北約盟國的強烈反對後，土耳其幾周前突然放棄了這項計劃。
Their main objection: Turkey’s partner, a state-backed Chinese company. Western countries feared a loss of military secrets if Chinese technology were incorporated into Turkey’s air defenses.
他們的主要理由是：土耳其的合作伙伴，一家有政府背景的中國企業。西方國家擔心，如果土耳其的防空系統採用中國技術，他們的軍事機密可能泄露。
As one of its highest economic and foreign policy goals, China has laid out an extensive vision for close relations with Turkey and dozens of countries that were loosely connected along the Silk Road more than 1,000 years ago by land and seaborne trade.
作爲經濟和外交政策的最高目標之一，中國規劃了一個廣泛的願景，想通過開展陸地和海上貿易，來與土耳其和上千年前“絲綢之路”上的幾十個國家建立緊密關係。
But Beijing’s effort to revive ancient trade routes, a plan known as the Belt and Road Initiative, is causing geopolitical strains, with countries increasingly worried about becoming too dependent on China.
不過，北京試圖重啓這條古老貿易路線的“一帶一路”計劃正在製造地緣政治壓力，這些國家越來越擔心會變得過度依賴中國。
Kazakhstan has limited Chinese investment and immigration for fear of being overwhelmed. Kyrgyzstan has pursued warmer relations with Moscow as a balance to Beijing.
哈薩克斯坦擔心自己難以招架，對中國投資和移民進行了限制。吉爾吉斯斯坦希望增進與俄羅斯的關係，用來平衡北京的影響力。
With the missile deal, Turkey was turning toward China partly to reduce its reliance on NATO. “Our national interest and NATO’s may not be the same for some actions,” said Ismail Demir, Turkey’s under secretary for national defense.
通過該導彈協議，土耳其是在轉向中國。這在一定程度上是爲了減少對北約的依賴。“在一些行動上，我們的國家利益和北約的利益可能不一致，”土耳其國防部副部長伊斯梅爾·德米爾(Ismail Demir)說。
But the deal immediately raised red flags in the West.
但協議立即遭到了西方的反對。
Besides the technology issues, the Chinese supplier, the China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation, was the target of Western sanctions for providing ballistic missile technology to Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Syria. So Turkish exports based on a partnership with China National Precision could have also been subject to sanctions.
除了技術問題，因向伊朗、朝鮮、巴基斯坦和敘利亞提供彈道導彈技術，這家名爲中國精密機械進出口有限公司的供應商是西方的制裁對象。因此，在和該公司合作的基礎上進行的土耳其出口可能也會受到制裁。
Complicating matters, China and Russia are close allies on many issues. Russia is especially distrusted here because of its military intervention in Syria and its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. And Turkey had been a close American ally ever since it sent a large contingent of troops to fight North Korea and China during the Korean War.
讓情況愈發複雜的是，中國在很多問題上都是俄羅斯的親密盟友。但在這裏，因爲入侵敘利亞並從烏克蘭奪去了克里米亞，俄羅斯特別不得土耳其的信任。而且自從在朝鮮戰爭期間派遣一支龐大的軍隊同朝鮮和中國作戰之後，土耳其一直是美國的親密盟友。
The Chinese missile project “was one of the things that really made people say ‘Turkey is shifting, wow,’” said Mehmet Soylemez, an Asian studies specialist at the Institute for Social and Political Researches, an independent research group in Ankara. “China wants to remake the global financial and economic structure.”
涉及中國的導彈項目“確實是一件讓人驚呼‘土耳其在轉變’的事情”，位於安卡拉的獨立研究機構社會政治研究所(Institute for Social and Political Researches)亞洲問題專家穆罕默德·索伊萊梅茲(Mehmet Soylemez)說。“中國想重塑全球金融和經濟結構。”
With its wealth and markets, China is a tantalizing partner.
憑藉其財富和市場，中國是一個令人垂涎的合作伙伴。
Many countries along the former Silk Road are frustrated by the difficulty of developing closer economic ties to the European Union. And they are alarmed that the American-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major regional trade deal, could give an edge to Malaysia and Vietnam.
絲綢之路沿途的很多國家，都惱於難以同歐盟發展更緊密的經濟往來。而且它們擔心，美國主導的大型地區性貿易協議“跨太平洋夥伴關係協定”（Trans Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）可能會讓馬來西亞和越南佔據優勢。
“So many years, we have been kept waiting at the edge of the E.U., and people are losing hope,” said Sahin Saylik, the general manager of Kirpart Otomotiv, a large Turkish auto parts manufacturer. “Turkey is not in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and problems in the Arab world are pushing Turkey to have other alternatives.”
“這麼多年了，我們一直徘徊在歐盟大門口，大家都快不抱希望了，”沙欣·塞利克(Sahin Saylik) 說。他是土耳其大型汽車配件生產商科派公司(Kirpart Otomotiv)的總經理。“土耳其沒有加入TPP，阿拉伯世界的各種問題又迫使土耳其做出其他選擇。”
But the relationship with China is lopsided. Turkey imports $25 billion a year worth of goods from China, while exporting only $3 billion there.
然而，與中國的關係是一邊倒的。土耳其每年從中國進口價值250億美元的商品，而出口卻僅有30億美元。
In Turkey, stores are full of Chinese goods, from vacuum cleaners to tableware. Chinese companies have purchased coal and marble mines, as well as a 65 percent stake in Turkey’s third-largest container port. China is helping build nearly a dozen rail lines, and it is already a military supplier, selling lower-tech battlefield rockets to Turkey.
在土耳其，商店裏充滿了從吸塵器到餐具在內的各種中國商品。中國公司購買了土耳其的多座煤礦和大理石礦，並且擁有土耳其第三大集裝箱碼頭65%的股份。中國在幫助建設十幾條鐵路，並且已是土耳其的軍火供應商，在向其出售技術含量較低的火箭彈。
Companies are increasingly turning to China for cost reasons, buying components or importing fully assembled products. Arzum, one of Turkey’s best-known appliance manufacturers, did the engineering and marketing for its popular new Okka single-cup Turkish coffee brewers locally. But the brewers are manufactured in southeastern China.
出於成本方面的考慮，越來越多的公司轉向中國購買零部件或進口成品。Arzum是土耳其著名的家電生產商，它在本地設計和推廣其熱銷的新款Okka單杯土耳其咖啡機。但是，這些咖啡機是在中國華南地區製造的。
“Ten years ago, Turkey didn’t exactly see the threat of China for manufacturing,” said T. Murat Kolbasi, Arzum’s chairman. “The threat has to be changed to the opportunity.”
“十年前，土耳其並沒有看到中國製造業的威脅。”Arzum董事長T·穆拉特·科爾巴希(T. Murat Kolbasi)說。“威脅必須轉變成機遇。”
Chinese companies can quickly sever ties as well.
中國公司也可能會迅速地斷絕關係。
The state-controlled China Machinery Engineering Corporation abruptly backed out of a $384.6 million deal to buy a 75 percent stake in the electricity grid of Eskisehir and nearby provinces in Turkey. It happened days after national elections in Turkey last June cast uncertainty on the future of the industry’s regulations.
國有企業中國機械設備工程股份有限公司突然退出了一項38.46億美元的交易，不再購買土耳其埃斯基謝希爾及周邊幾個省份電網75%的股份。土耳其今年6月的全國選舉對電力行業未來的監管帶來了不確定性，而退出一事就發生在選舉之後幾天之內。
China Machinery provided no official reason to Turkish Electricity for canceling the deal. The Chinese company declined to comment.
這家中國公司沒有向土耳其電力(Turkish Electricity)提供取消交易的官方原因，並拒絕就此事置評。
The Turkish Electricity Distribution Company, a nationwide grid company, is suing the Chinese company in an effort to collect a breakup fee. Mukremin Cepni, chief executive of Turkish Electricity, said that he had worked 18 months on the Eskisehir deal and was unenthusiastic about any more tie-ups with China.
全國性的電網企業“土耳其配電公司”(Turkish Electricity Distribution Company)正起訴這家中國公司，以期獲得違約賠償。土耳其電力公司首席執行官穆克雷米·塞帕尼(Mukremin Cepni)表示，他爲埃斯基謝希爾的項目工作了18個月，如今對與中國的合作不再抱有熱情。
“I won’t think well of them, because personally I struggled a lot, and their going away without giving any reason exhausted us,” said Mr. Cepni.
“我不會對他們有好感，因爲我個人投入了很多，他們的不告而別耗盡了我們的熱情，”塞帕尼說。
Ethnic issues have further complicated China’s relations. Many countries in the region are Muslim, and versions of Turkish are spoken in more than a dozen countries, partly a legacy of the Ottoman Empire.
民族問題使得與中國的關係進一步複雜化。該地區的許多國家信奉伊斯蘭教，有十幾個國家說不同版本的土耳其語言，有一部分是因爲受到當年奧斯曼帝國的影響。
That history has fanned regional tensions over Beijing’s stringent policies toward the Uighurs, Muslims in China’s Xinjiang Province who speak a Turkic language. Beijing has blamed Uighurs for a series of attacks on Han Chinese from eastern China.
在這種歷史背景下，北京當局對新疆說突厥語族語言的維吾爾穆斯林執行的嚴苛政策加劇了該地區的緊張局勢。北京譴責維吾爾人對中國腹地的漢人進行了一系列攻擊。
When China suppressed Uighur protests in 2009, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister at the time, condemned the actions as “a kind of genocide.” Last July, Turks and Uighurs held two rounds of protests in Istanbul and Ankara.
2009年中國鎮壓維吾爾人的抗議活動時，當時任土耳其總理的雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)譴責了這些行動，稱之爲“一種種族滅絕”。今年7月，土耳其人和維吾爾人在伊斯坦布爾和安卡拉進行了兩輪抗議活動。
Now the president of Turkey, Mr. Erdogan is prioritizing ties with China. He calmed the anti-Chinese protests last summer by urging his countrymen to be wary of rumors on social media about China’s treatment of the Uighurs.
而現在，作爲土耳其總統的埃爾多安卻將與中國的關係視作重中之重。他平息了今夏的反華抗議，呼籲國人警惕社交媒體上有關中國如何對待維吾爾人的傳聞。
Nationalistic Turkish groups like Anatolia Youth, previously outspoken about the Uighurs, have responded by softening their stance toward China. Mahmut Temelli, the chairman of Anatolia Youth’s foreign relations council, said that he believed that on missiles, “the bid should have remained with China.”
之前曾力挺維吾爾人的一些土耳其民族主義團體，比如安納托利亞青年團(A北約lia Youth)，做出了響應，軟化了對中國的立場。該團體的外交關係委員會主席馬哈茂德 泰梅爾利(Mahmut Temelli)表示，他認爲，在導彈問題上，“應該保持與中國的合作。”
The missiles became an international issue two years ago, when Turkey’s defense ministry announced it favored a Chinese bid. It beat out an American offer to sell fully built Patriot missiles, as well as similar deals with Western Europe and Russia.
兩年前，導彈一事成爲了國際議題，當時土耳其國防部宣佈傾向於接受中國的投標。這擊敗了來自美國的出售成套愛國者導彈的投標，以及西歐和俄羅斯的類似提議。
Turkey wanted to churn out missiles, potentially for export in a few years, and to stop relying on NATO’s occasional deployments of Patriots. “You cannot protect a 911-kilometer border just with Patriots,” said Merve Seren, a security specialist at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government public policy group in Ankara.
土耳其希望大量生產導彈，也許幾年後還能出口，不再依賴北約偶爾部署的愛國者。“只用愛國者導彈保衛不了911公里的邊界線，”梅爾韋·塞倫(Merve Seren)說。他是安卡拉一家親政府的公共政策團體“政治、經濟與社會研究基金會”(Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research)的安全專家。
And F-16 fighters, like the two that shot down the Russian warplane, cannot be on patrol continuously, Mr. Demir, the defense undersecretary, said. Missile systems can be ready around the clock.
土耳其國防部副部長德米爾認爲，F-16戰鬥機——像擊落俄羅斯戰機的那兩架——無法連續巡邏，而導彈系統可以全天待命。
As the Syrian conflict worsened, NATO’s limited supply of Patriot missiles meant that it sent only enough to protect three Turkish cities. NATO had begun to withdraw them when the Russian warplane was shot down.
隨着敘利亞衝突的惡化，北約有限的愛國者導彈供應意味着，這些部署的導彈僅夠保護三座土耳其城市。而且，在俄羅斯戰機被擊落後，北約還開始撤回這些導彈。
“NATO’s deployment of air defense systems is on and off,” Mr. Demir said, just hours after the the episode with the Russian warplane, videos of which played on the television in the background. “I don’t know if it if gives a message that your partners can rely on.”
“北約的防空系統部署變化無常，”德米爾說，僅在土耳其與俄羅斯戰機事件之後的幾個小時，視頻在電視上播放，充當背景。“我不知道它是否在給出夥伴可以依靠的訊息。”
But Turkey had a huge blind spot with the missile project.
不過，土耳其的導彈計劃中有一個巨大的盲點。
Turkish military analysts compared on a long list of variables, like missile range and the willingness to share technology and manufacturing. The analysis was approved by a committee including the defense minister, generals and Mr. Erdogan, Mr. Demir said.
土耳其的軍事分析師比較了一系列變量，如導彈射程以及分享技術和合作製造的意願等。德米爾稱，該分析報告獲得了由國防部長、軍隊將領和總統本人組成的一個委員會的批准。
But nobody consulted the foreign ministry on how Turkey’s allies would react, partly because NATO had already tolerated Greece’s acquisition of Russian air defense missiles from Cyprus. “They were informed after the process was completed,” Mr. Demir said. “It was not treated as a special project that will have a lot of political results.”
但是，沒有人向外交部諮詢土耳其的盟友會有什麼反應，其中部分原因是，北約容忍了希臘通過塞浦路斯購買俄羅斯的防空導彈。德米爾說，“他們在事情完成後纔得到通知。此事並沒有被當成會有諸多政治後果的特殊計劃。”
Within days of the announcement about China’s leading bid, NATO organized a campaign to overturn the decision. President Obama, Western European heads of state and top NATO commanders contacted Turkish leaders.
在宣佈中國在競標中領先後，幾天之內，北約便組織了意在推翻該決定的行動。美國總統奧巴馬、西歐各國領導人以及北約的主要指揮官輪番與土耳其領導人接觸。
NATO officials have been cautious, saying any country has a right to choose its own equipment. But they have publicly expressed concern that Chinese missiles might not be compatible with NATO equipment — and privately that they were loath to share technical details to make compatibility possible.
北約官員一直出言謹慎，聲稱任何國家都有權選擇自己的裝備。但是，在公開場合，他們表示擔心中國的導彈可能與北約的裝備不兼容——而在私下裏，他們也不願分享技術細節以實現這種兼容。
Last month, Turkey opted to go ahead on its own. It will probably subcontract some components to foreign manufacturers, possibly China National Precision.
上月，土耳其選擇了自行完成部署計劃。它很可能會將一些零部件轉包給海外生產商，其中或許就包括中國精密機械進出口有限公司。
An engraved metal plate from China National Precision in a polished rosewood box still sat on a shelf outside Mr. Demir’s office the morning the Russian warplane was shot down. Hours of negotiating with Chinese arms makers has forged a relationship that will make future military cooperation easier, Mr. Demir said.
在俄羅斯戰機被擊落的那個上午，在德米爾辦公室外面的書架上，放着一塊雕刻的金屬板。這塊裝在精美的黃檀木盒中的金屬板就來自這家中國精密機械公司。德米爾表示，經過與中國軍火商無數個小時的談判，雙方締結的關係將使今後的軍事合作變得更加方便。
“There is a value,” he said, “in the time we have spent with these companies.”
“我們花時間與這些公司交涉是有價值的，”他說。
