烏克蘭危機暴露俄羅斯弱點
As well as demonstrating the courage of Ukraine’s people, the one thing that the country’s political crisis of the past few weeks has made clear is the weakness of Russia. President Vladimir Putin likes to present his country as a reviving world power but it is trapped by its own dependence on oil and gas.
過去幾周的烏克蘭政治危機不僅展示出了烏克蘭人民的勇氣，也明顯暴露出了俄羅斯的弱點。俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)希望把自己的國家呈現爲一個正在復甦的世界強國，但該國卻受制於對油氣的依賴。The threats and sabre-rattling will no doubt continue. Russia may be able, and should perhaps be allowed, to keep control of the Crimea and its black sea naval base at Sevastapol – though history does suggests that current events are simply sowing the seeds of another long-running conflict there, not least with the Tatars.
威脅和武力恫嚇肯定會繼續。俄羅斯或許能夠、也可能應該被允許控制克里米亞及其位於塞瓦斯托波爾的黑海艦隊基地，不過歷史確實表明，目前的事件只會爲該地區另一場曠日持久的衝突播下種子，特別是與韃靼人的衝突。Beyond that, however, Moscow is in no position to confront Europe or even the new government in Kiev. The Ukrainians must not allow themselves to be provoked by an Emperor who has no clothes.
此外，俄羅斯政府還沒有做好準備應對歐洲甚至烏克蘭新政府。烏克蘭不應讓自己受到一個沒穿衣服的“皇帝”的煽動。
Russia’s weakness is its overwhelming dependence on oil and gas export revenues. Russia exports 6m barrels of crude oil and another million barrels of oil products to Europe every day. Europe also buys a third of total Russian gas production. Moscow simply cannot afford to lose any significant proportion of that revenue. Four gas pipelines run through Ukraine. On a short-term basis Europe needs Russian energy but the dependence is entirely mutual. On a longer-term basis Europe has other options and every burst of Russian rhetoric must be encouraging European governments to prepare contingency plans. Russia has no such options.
俄羅斯的弱點在於其對油氣出口收入的嚴重依賴。俄羅斯每天向歐洲出口600萬桶原油外加100萬桶石油製品。此外，俄羅斯天然氣總產量的三分之一流向歐洲。俄羅斯承受不起損失其中任何一筆鉅額收入。有四條天然氣管道途徑烏克蘭。短期來看，歐洲需要俄羅斯的能源，但依賴完全是相互的。較長期而言，歐洲還有其它選擇，俄羅斯方面的任何激烈言論都肯定會促使歐洲各國政府制定應急方案。俄羅斯卻沒有那麼多選擇。Since coming to power 14 years ago, Mr Putin’s regime has been sustained by more than a decade of high oil and gas prices. The revenue has allowed the Russian government to survive and has made a small proportion of the country’s population very rich. This easy stream of income has, however, enabled the Russians to evade the need for reform and modernisation.
自從14年前上臺以來，普京政府靠10多年的高油氣價格得以維繫。這筆收入讓俄羅斯政府得以生存，並讓該國一小部分人變得非常富有。然而，這種輕易獲取的源源不斷的收入，導致俄羅斯政府避開了必要的改革和現代化。Beyond the energy sector the scientific and technical base of the country is weak and has failed to match the advances being made elsewhere in the world – not least in China. Too many of the brightest Russians have left the country. So, of course, has a large proportion of the wealth generated by the energy sector.
除了能源行業，俄羅斯的科學技術基礎相當薄弱，而且未能跟上全球其他地區正取得的進步，特別是中國。太多最聰明的俄羅斯人離開了祖國。當然，能源行業創造的大量財富也已從俄羅斯流失。The Russian economy is now more dependent on oil and gas than it was when Mr Putin came to power. Oil and gas account for 70 per cent of Russian exports and over 50 per cent of all state revenue.
俄羅斯經濟現在對油氣的依賴程度超過普京上臺之時。油氣佔俄羅斯出口的70%，佔財政總收入的逾50%。Even if exports to Europe are maintained in the short term– as they were throughout even the toughest days of the cold war – Russia is vulnerable to developments in Europe which undermine the need for imports, especially of gas. That process is happening already. European gas demand is down by 10 per cent over the last decade and will fall further as markets such as Germany switch to renewables. Gas to gas competition is threatening old contracts and will push prices down.
即便面向歐洲的出口在短期內得以維持（就像在冷戰期間最困難的日子仍得以維持那樣），俄羅斯仍會受到歐洲一些發展的影響，這些發展會降低歐洲的進口需求，特別是天然氣進口。這種情況已經出現了。過去10年，歐洲天然氣需求下滑10%，隨着德國等市場轉向可再生能源，需求將進一步下滑。天然氣競爭正威脅過去簽訂的合約，並將推低天然氣價格。Russia has huge resources – not just of oil and gas but also of shale gas and tight oil. But resources in the ground are of limited value if the market is saturated. Petroeconomies are inherently unstable precisely because they have minimal flexibility in responding to external circumstances beyond their control.
俄羅斯資源豐富，不僅擁有油氣，還有頁岩氣和緻密油。但如果市場處於飽和狀態，那麼地下資源的價值就有限了。石油經濟學的內在不穩定性恰恰是因爲，它們在應對無法控制的外部情況方面靈活度太小。No doubt all this will reinforce Russian paranoia and could trigger some damaging responses to the loss of a country which has been part of the Russian sphere of influence for many decades. Russia cannot afford to apply energy sanctions against Ukraine and if it tries to do so the only effect will be to expose the limits of its power.
毫無疑問，這些都會加重俄羅斯的疑懼心理，而且俄羅斯也許會因爲失去一個幾十年來一直隸屬該國勢力範圍之內的國家，而做出一些具有破壞性的反應。俄羅斯承受不起對烏克蘭實施能源制裁，如果俄羅斯試圖這樣做的話，唯一的結果將是暴露其實力的侷限性。Given this reality it is important that the threats from Moscow are not misunderstood as expressions of strength. One day perhaps Russia will be reformed and emerge, if not as a great power, then as a strong and diversified economy. It looks as if we will have to wait for a new Russian leadership for that process to begin.
鑑於這一事實，這點非常重要：來自俄羅斯的威脅不應被誤解爲該國實力的表現。或許，俄羅斯有一天會實行改革，變成一個強大且多樣性的經濟體（即便不是世界強國）。看起來我們必須等待新一屆俄羅斯領導人來啓動這一進程。
