社交媒體幫助監測俄羅斯在烏克蘭軍事行動

WASHingTON — An unusual investigation using publicly available videos, smartphone photographs and satellite images shows that Russia is continuing to defy the West by conducting protracted military operations inside Ukraine, according to an independent report.

華盛頓——據一份獨立報告稱，調查表明俄羅斯仍在不顧西方反對，在烏克蘭境內開展曠日持久的軍事行動。這項異乎尋常的調查使用了公開的視頻、智能手機拍攝的照片和衛星圖片。

Russia has long dismissed Western allegations that its military has intervened in Ukraine as little more than computer-generated propaganda.

長期以來，俄羅斯一直宣稱，西方指責其軍隊干涉烏克蘭事務的說法，無非是電腦生成的宣傳材料。

In an attempt to puncture the Russian denials, independent experts have operated like digital Sherlock Holmeses, using Google’s Street View, YouTube, Instagram, Twitter, satellite photographs and Russia’s version of Facebook, including social media updates by Russian soldiers. That research was then supplemented by more traditional sources like court documents and local media reports.

爲了駁斥俄羅斯的否認，獨立專家像數字世界的夏洛克·福爾摩斯(Sherlock Holmes)一樣行動了起來，運用了谷歌“街景”(Street View)、YouTube、Instagram、Twitter、衛星圖片和俄羅斯版的Facebook，包括俄羅斯士兵在社交媒體上的動態更新。後來，該研究又得到了法庭文件和地方媒體報道等傳統消息來源的佐證。

“Independent researchers, using open sources and rigorous methodology, have demonstrated that Russian troops and Russian weapons have been an important part of the fight in Ukraine’s east,” said John E. Herbst, a former American ambassador to Ukraine and one of the authors of the report, Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin’s War in Ukraine, which is to be released Thursday by the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research center.

“獨立研究人員運用公開的消息來源和嚴謹的方法證明了，在烏克蘭東部的戰鬥中，俄羅斯的軍隊和武器一直起着重要作用，”這份題爲《昭然若揭：普京在烏克蘭發動的戰爭》(Hiding in Plain Sight: Putin’s War in Ukraine)的報告的作者之一，前美國駐烏克蘭大使約翰·E·赫布斯特(John E. Herbst)說。該報告將由位於華盛頓的研究機構大西洋理事會(Atlantic Council)在週四發佈。

While the most recent photograph analyzed in the Atlantic Council report was taken in February, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general, said in an interview in Washington on Wednesday that there was ample evidence that Russia still had forces in Ukraine and was sending arms to separatists there.

在大西洋理事會分析的照片中，距今最近的也拍攝於今年2月。但週三在華盛頓接受採訪時，北約(NATO)祕書長延斯·斯托爾滕貝格(Jens Stoltenberg)表示，有大量證據表明俄羅斯仍在烏克蘭境內部署有部隊，並且還在向那裏的分離分子輸送武器。

“Russia is present in eastern Ukraine,” Mr. Stoltenberg said. “This is something we have from our own intelligence. But in addition to our own intelligence, it is based on open sources.”

“烏克蘭東部仍有俄羅斯人，”斯托爾滕貝格說。“這是從我們自己的情報中得出的結論。但除我們自己的情報外，還有公開消息來源的支持。”

The report comes as European nations are preparing to vote next month on whether to ease or maintain economic sanctions on Russia because of its role in Ukraine.

報告出現之際，正值歐洲國家準備於下月投票表決是要放寬，還是要維持對俄羅斯的經濟制裁。俄羅斯正是因爲在烏克蘭局勢中扮演的角色而受到制裁的。

“The way Russian propaganda works, it makes it seem you can’t possibly know the truth,” said Eliot Higgins, a British-based researcher who founded the investigative website and led the effort to analyze the imagery for the Atlantic Council report. “If you try to counter it by doing the same thing, you are just adding to the noise. But you can get to the truth by pointing to the open source data and what’s publicly available.”

“俄羅斯的宣傳方式是有效的，彷彿誰都不可能瞭解真相，”身在英國的研究人員艾略特·希金斯(Eliot Higgins)說。“如果試圖以其人之道還治其人之身，只會徒增喧囂，但可以藉助開源數據和公開的材料發現真相。”希金斯是調查網站的創始人，領導了爲上述報告分析圖像的工作。

Analyzing photographs of large craters in Ukraine and videos of rocket launches on nearby Russian territory, the Atlantic Council report concludes that Russian units have fired across the Ukrainian border. The report finds that craters near the Ukrainian town Panchenkove were the result of Russian multiple rocket fire near Gukovo, Russia, and from a separate site in eastern Ukraine.

通過分析烏克蘭境內大型彈坑的照片，以及在不遠處的俄羅斯領土上發射火箭彈的視頻，大西洋理事會的報告斷定，俄羅斯部隊隔着邊界向烏克蘭開火。報告認定，烏克蘭小鎮龐申科韋(Panchenkove)附近的彈坑，正是俄羅斯多次從該國的古科沃(Gukovo)附近，以及烏克蘭東部另一個分離地區發射火箭彈造成的。

“Four videos containing geotags filmed in different locations in and around Gukovo showed the launch of rockets,” the report said. “Cross-border attacks served as cover for a renewed military incursion in the summer of 2014.” Geotags can show where images and videos were created.

“四段帶地理位置標籤的視頻記錄了發射火箭彈時的情景，它們都是在古科沃及其周邊的不同位置拍攝的，”報告說。“越境攻擊是爲了掩護2014年夏天重新開始的軍事入侵。”地理位置標籤能表明照片和視頻的拍攝地點。

Drawing on satellite photographs and social media posts by Russian soldiers, the report shows the network of Russian military camps that have sprouted near the Ukrainian border and have been used to send Russian weapons and troops into eastern Ukraine. The camps, the report notes, are in plain view to “anyone with access to Google Earth or Google Maps.”

該報告通過衛星照片及俄羅斯士兵在社交媒體上的帖子展示了，俄羅斯軍隊在烏克蘭邊境搭建的營地被用於向烏克蘭東部運送俄羅斯武器及士兵。報告指出，“任何能夠使用谷歌地球(Google Earth)和谷歌地圖(Google Maps)的人都很容易看到”這些營地。

Using YouTube video, the report tracked the movement of Russian convoys, including armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery. In one case, the report notes, a Russian military convoy was filmed moving in August through Staraya Stanitsa, Russia. In February, a YouTube channel associated with Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists showed an armored vehicle from the same convoy in Ukraine.

該報告通過YouTube視頻追蹤俄羅斯車隊的行動，車隊中有裝甲車和自行火炮。該報告指出，去年8月，俄軍的一個車隊被拍到穿越俄羅斯的斯特拉亞斯塔尼薩(Staraya Stanitsa)。今年2月，與俄羅斯支持的烏克蘭分裂分子相關的一個YouTube頻道里，展示了同一個車隊中的一輛裝甲車部署在烏克蘭的畫面。

By using satellite imagery and separate photographs of Russian equipment, the report also documents the movement of Russian tanks, SA-22 air-defense systems, Grad rocket launchers and armored reconnaissance vehicles.

通過衛星圖像以及其他關於俄羅斯裝備的照片，該報告還記錄了俄羅斯坦克、SA-22防空系統、格拉德型(Grad)火箭彈發射器和武裝偵察車的活動。

American officials have at times used photographs to buttress their claims of Russian intervention. When Secretary of State John Kerry met with President Vladimir V. Putin in Sochi, Russia, this month, Mr. Kerry showed him photographs of Russian air defenses and other weapons in eastern Ukraine to try to persuade him that the United States had clear evidence of Russia’s military role, Western officials said.

美國官員有時會利用照片來支持他們的說法，即俄羅斯進行了干預。西方國家的官員表示，美國國務卿約翰·克里(John Kerry)和俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)本月在俄羅斯索契會面時，克里向普京展示了俄羅斯在烏克蘭東部部署的防空系統及其他武器的照片，試圖向普京闡明，美國掌握了明確證據，可以表明俄羅斯軍隊在衝突中的角色。

Last year, NATO also issued satellite photographs of Russian artillery positions inside Ukraine to support its allegations of Russian involvement.

去年，北約也曾發佈衛星照片，佐證有關俄羅斯參與戰爭的說法。照片顯示了俄羅斯軍隊在烏克蘭境內的火炮陣地。

But the photographs Mr. Kerry showed Mr. Putin have not been made public. Russian officials, who have repeatedly portrayed Ukraine’s new government as the main obstacle to a political settlement, have dismissed NATO’s public evidence as misinformation.

但克里向普京展示的照片沒有對外公佈。俄羅斯官員稱北約公開的證據並不準確。這些官員多次聲稱，烏克蘭的新政府纔是阻礙政治解決途徑的主要障礙。

Mr. Stoltenberg declined to say how many Russian troops were in Ukraine or positioned near its border. But one Western official, who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence reports, said Russia had moved about nine battalion tactical groups close to its border with Ukraine, and that as many as five additional battalions could be sent there in coming weeks. The number of troops in such units can vary, but a battalion could have about 1,000 troops, creating a potential force of well over 10,000 Russian troops in Ukraine by this summer.

斯托爾滕貝格拒絕說明有多少俄羅斯士兵在烏克蘭或在俄烏邊境駐紮。但西方國家的一名官員表示，俄羅斯在俄烏邊境附近部署了大約九個營的戰術編隊，可能會在未來幾周再派遣多達五個營的兵力。由於討論的是情報報告，這名官員要求匿名。這種編隊的士兵人數不均，一個營可能有1000名士兵，因此截至今年夏天，俄羅斯部署在烏克蘭的部隊可能會遠超1萬人。

It is unclear if Russia is preparing for a major offensive to help Ukrainian separatists seize more territory or if it is trying to put pressure on the Ukrainian government to make more constitutional concessions. Either way, the moves by Russia’s military are a violation of the peace agreement that was negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in February, which called for the removal of foreign troops, the pulling back of heavy weapons and the disbanding of “illegal groups.”

目前尚不清楚俄羅斯是準備大舉進攻，幫助烏克蘭分離分子佔據更多領土，還是試圖迫使烏克蘭政府在憲法上做出更多讓步。無論怎樣，俄羅斯軍隊的行動都將違反今年2月在白俄羅斯明斯克談判達成的和平協議，該協議要求撤除外國士兵，撤回重型武器，解散“非法組織”。

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. said in a speech on Wednesday that the conflict over Ukraine is “a test for the West,” and that “President Putin is wagering that he has greater staying power.”

週三，美國副總統小約瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)發表講話時表示，烏克蘭衝突是“是對西方國家的考驗”，“普京總統認定了他還能掌權很久”。